Think the opposition parties could well have shot themselves in the foot, there’s no denying Yousaf had been on the back foot for a little while. This gives the SNP a chance to reset and steady the ship a bit going into an election. I think Swinney and Forbes if she returns to a prominent position have the profiles to make it more difficult for Labour in particular.
That’s the impression I get regardless of my own views.
I don't think labour ever had a chance. And they famn well knew it. It was all hollow bravado for headlines, to help their cause in England. Sarwar's regular namedropping of Stramer though all this and his proclamations that the whole UK is ready to embrace labour in both parliaments were hardly subtle.
An election would have changed nothing, and would have revealed that their reported lauded strength isn't maybe all it is shouted to be up here, and with that questions would come elsewhere too.
Imo, there are only two ways there is a meaningful change in parliament, and by that I mean the snp replaced as the governing party.
- Another pro-independence party emerges as a credible contender, that the 45-ish% can suport instead of the snp, but still maintain a pro-independence majority.
- Labour or Lib-dems adopt a more 'scotland focused' stance, shed the grovelling to head office (a bit like the Greens), and open up to at the very least being neutral to independence and giving their members individual positions on it. Which would then see them go up on strength of policy and ability rather than the fact they a slightly more palatable non-tory unionist party.
Otherwise, there will always be enough core support for the snp based on independence alone, before any additional greys and layers come into it, to keep them the significantly biggest party.
Neither are likely to happen, and the public are unlikely to turn their back on independence, so this will be us for the forseeable.
Or, until independence actually happens, and then all bets are off for all parties up here, and some serious redefining will have to happen for pretty much all.