There is a huge amount of emotion surrounding discussion of all this. Entirely understandable too. But those running football don't think in terms of emotion. For them it is all about money. So looking at this from a purely financial perspective - as the characters involved in this upheaval will - how is this likely to play out?
Firstly, IMO, the breakaway clubs hold all the aces here. UEFA can ban these clubs all they like. But UEFA needs these elite clubs, and the elite clubs don't need them. Domestic leagues can impose bans and sanctions to make a point, but that would be suicidal. The PL stripped of the appeal of these six clubs is a crippled brand. If those six are excluded, just how much will broadcasters be prepared to pay for rights to cover the rest? How much sponsorship will be forthcoming? The simple reality is that the Premier League MUST reach an amicable settlement with the breakaway six. The alternative is a PL doomed to die by noble gesture.
Meanwhile, consider the options from the perspective of the breakaway clubs. If they're banned from domestic competitions the solution for them could hardly be more straightforward. Reformat the new competition to a full 38-game home-and-away season for the 20 clubs involved. Incorporate some element of cup football either in the form of a play-off format, or via a new dedicated cup competition. No shortage of lucrative fixtures to stream now.
And what if the players are banned from representing their national teams? Simple. The breakaway league sets up a new international tournament - they will have access to all the best players, after all. If UEFA and FIFA don't play along, it is they who will go the way of the dinosaurs, not the breakaway clubs.
Many of we fans who post on here view football in analog terms. We think of the beautiful game broadly as it has functioned for the last 100 years or more. But that financial model is extinct. Clubs can no longer survive based on matchday income. Football is consumed digitally now. Yes, I will attract ire for saying that - but it is the truth. The future for the elite football clubs revolves purely around digital income from global media rights. And from the merchandising and betting revenue streams arising from that. The kind of money brought in by those who attend matches on the day is close to irrelevant at this level. Many on here are saying they will no longer attend games because they don't approve of the new paradigm (fair enough). Others won't return because they've left this expensive weekend routine behind during the Covid reset. The reality is that these big clubs won't care about this. In a business model dominated by digital TV / streaming coverage, the role of the matchday crowd is to provide atmosphere and visual spectacle for the worldwide online audience. The clubs can afford to price the matchday seats to sell using dynamic algorithms like those used by no-frills airlines. And if those tickets are cheaper, perhaps afew younger (and more animated) fans will be able to afford the gig again ... win-win for the clubs.
Meanwhile, a huge new revenue stream arises for the clubs if they can sell football coverage via their own fan channels. Purists on Bluemoon may say NEVER, but a substantial new audience will be attracted to subscribe to a package which grants live access to ALL Manchester City matches for a full season (or whichever club they prefer). The clubs will make a killing from this. Sadly, how many fans of these six clubs sit through live TV coverage of matches such as Brighton v Burnley which their expensive Sky / BT package currently foists upon them in place of the match they really want to see?
When you pause to consider the strong position that the breakaway clubs are in from a financial perspective, it becomes obvious that for all their posturing it is UEFA and the domestic leagues which will need to give ground if any kind of accord is to be negotiated. Being banned from the UCL at the semi-final stage is galling, but UEFA can only impose this sanction once. And it will be an act of gross financial self-harm if they go through with it. And given that UEFA has behaved so objectionably for so many years, I struggle to raise one iota of sympathy for their predicament now. Their appointment of the odious Tebag to a position of influence just this week shows that this toxic coven is not minded to change its ways any time soon. UEFA is a horrible governing body. The new incarnation can only be 'just as bad' at the very worst.
My expectation is that urgent and constructive peace talks must ensue. This breakaway represents an existential threat to domestic leagues generally (if these clubs are excluded), and to UEFA in particular. In public they may rant about how harshly they can punish and ostracise the breakaway elite clubs. But in private they must do whatever it takes to keep these clubs securely in the fold. Failure to do so dooms THEM to irrelevance, not the elite clubs. That is the stark reality.
I'm aware that this line of thinking isn't something that purists of a certain age want to contemplate. But it is the financial reality in this new digital age, and it is the distribution of monetary rewards which will ultimately decide the outcome of this. UEFA must offer big concessions to appease the elite clubs. And the domestic leagues will have no choice other than to back down or become a meaningless sideshow compared with what they once were.
We live in interesting times. But upsetting as all this is, I still want the best possible outcome for Manchester City FC. It's CTID for me, whichever tournament they happen to be competing in. For as long as they play in Manchester and retain the name I've always supported, count me in.
