The Title Race - 2021/22

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Gorton_Tubster said:
I sincerely hope you're right. I see things the other way, the momentum is with them, they're full of confidence, their two main men are coming back and they've survived without them, maybe even improved. Although their fixture list is rammed out its exactly what gave us a buzz last year and carried us through, this year we're a bit broken up with scheduling, long breaks and gaps that disrupt our momentum. Size of squads matter and how many are actually used and for lfc its the same eleven basically so maybe that will change things in our favour. but I definitely think the momentum is with them, every win makes them more confident in themselves. So we just have to churn out the results for the next few months.
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Don't think the momentum is with them. It's not like they have reduced 50-70 % of our lead. How could a single draw in 13 league games switch the momentum? Also, virtually all non-Liverpool pundits agree that two of their goals yesterday shouldn't have stood. They were poor in the 2nd half because they played 4 games over 10 days. Now imagine them playing 12 games over 36 days, with some of those games (Chelsea, Inter...) way more difficult than Brentford and Palace. They will have more options to rotate with Salah, Mane, Keita back from Cameroon, but all these games every 3-4 days after the break will tire them down at some point. They are an excellent team and Klopp is a top manager, but reality is that they are likely to suffer.

We are in a great position and, unlike last season, most of our players will be well rested for the final months. Only Bernardo has played a lot of minutes so far, and to a lesser extent Cancelo. But they will have a good rest now.

By contrast, the likes of VVD, TAA, Henderson, Fabinho, Salah, Mane have played a lot of football, the latter 3 will play during the break as well. Also, they have to chase the cups, otherwise they may finish with empty hands the season. Every single game is crucial for them now. That may help them initially, but it's tiring both physically and mentally. Even if they don't drop points in March, which I don't think is likely, they will experience fatigue in the final 5-6 weeks. Most of their key players are around 30, they can't recover as quickly as 3 years ago. Time will tell.
 
alexmcity said:
Don't think the momentum is with them. It's not like they have reduced 50-70 % of our lead. How could a single draw in 13 league games switch the momentum? Also, virtually all non-Liverpool pundits agree that two of their goals yesterday shouldn't have stood. They were poor in the 2nd half because they played 4 games over 10 days. Now imagine them playing 12 games over 30 days, with some of those games (Chelsea, Inter...) way more difficult than Brentford and Palace. They will have more options to rotate with Salah, Mane, Keita back from Cameroon, but all these games every 3-4 days after the break will tire them down at some point. They are an excellent team and Klopp is a top manager, but reality is that they are likely to suffer.

We are in a great position and, unlike last season, most of our players will be well rested for the final months. Only Bernardo has played a lot of minutes so far, and to a lesser extent Cancelo. But they will have a good rest now.

By contrast, the likes of VVD, TAA, Henderson, Fabinho, Salah, Mane have played a lot of football, the latter 3 will play during the break as well. Also, they have to chase the cups, otherwise they may finish with empty hands the season. Every single game is crucial for them now. That may help them initially, but it's tiring both physically and mentally. Even if they don't drop points in March, which I don't think is likely, they will experience fatigue in the final 5-6 weeks. Most of their key players are around 30, they can't recover as quickly as 3 years ago. Time will tell.
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Liverpool has averaged 2.18 points per game so far this season. Continuing this form will mean they finish on 83 points.

If they improve their form to match ours (2.48 ppg) from now until the end of the season, they will finish on 88 points.

We are on track to finish on 94 points. If our form drops to being as bad as United's so far this season (1.73) we will finish on 83 points. If our form drops to Liverpool's form we will finish on 90 points. If our form drops to match our worst season under Pep (2.05 ppg) we'll finish on 88 points.

If Liverpool won every game between now and the end of the season, we'd have to improve our form to 2.67 ppg. If they matched the form from their League winning season (2.61) they would finish on 90 points.

So, in short, Liverpool would need a massive turnaround in their form AND us to fall off a cliff. I think they're a good side but I can't see them doing 18 wins on the bounce. I also give our boys enough credit to assume we'll finish around the high 80s as a bare minimum.
 
Mad how there is no mention of Palace being two men down because of the AFCON. Think Zaha and Kouyate are quite important to them.

Not concerned about them. I'm more concerned about some of our upcoming tricky away fixtures. They will come unstuck in some games too.
 
Manchester33 said:
Liverpool has averaged 2.18 points per game so far this season. Continuing this form will mean they finish on 83 points.

If they improve their form to match ours (2.48 ppg) from now until the end of the season, they will finish on 88 points.

We are on track to finish on 94 points. If our form drops to being as bad as United's so far this season (1.73) we will finish on 83 points. If our form drops to Liverpool's form we will finish on 90 points. If our form drops to match our worst season under Pep (2.05 ppg) we'll finish on 88 points.

If Liverpool won every game between now and the end of the season, we'd have to improve our form to 2.67 ppg. If they matched the form from their League winning season (2.61) they would finish on 90 points.

So, in short, Liverpool would need a massive turnaround in their form AND us to fall off a cliff. I think they're a good side but I can't see them doing 18 wins on the bounce. I also give our boys enough credit to assume we'll finish around the high 80s as a bare minimum.
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That's why 538 gives us 83 % chance to win the league. If things go as usual, we win. If something incredible happens, it happens, and we move on. This team is fantastic and is likely to win trophies. Not everything will go our way, but hopefully we win the PL and/or the CL.
 
Liverpool will have to fit in 3 games, they are two Covid games behind and the Carabou cup final weekend will be another, they have to fit them in somewhere, if we both go deep in the fa cup then the semi final weekend will add another, I think Spurs will have a big say in it, they play Liverpool 3 games from the end as long as we keep winning I think they are barring Liverpool our toughest games. Chuck in United for both teams and it’s going to be tight, ye I know they aren’t all that but they seem to turn up at our place. I just hope we don’t have to win everyone one like the 17/18 season that run in was bloody awful.
 
Blu1 said:
Once you add var for rivals & var against us between now & end of season the gap is not going to be what it is now. We can not afford any more slip ups or keep missing goals.
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What about the VAR that saved us against Soton at home or Arsenal away. These things even out. The best team always wins the league and this season that’s us so there’s nothing to worry about
 
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