The Title Race - 2021/22

[Gaz (FMwkdsoul)]

...

Liverpool have a tougher run in and they will drop points I am sure.

Yep. id take ours over theirs anyday.

 

[Coatigan]

Maybe but it’s close. They are forecast to have a GD of 66 while ours is 64.

The same forecast had as 75%+ likely to beat Palace, Spurs and Southampton. And had us predicted winners for large chunks of the year Liverpool won it.

It makes great reading, and I enjoy it. But it is hardly guidance.

 

[Coatigan]

View attachment 38547
Average points per last 5 games, including last night. Momentum has changed as well all know. (only Liverpool in red and City in blue are coloured lines)

Quite a nice graphic. Tells a bit of a story doesnt it.

We just need to get that consistency we are wwll capable of back.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

Genuine question: is anyone enjoying this title race? It seems like most aren’t ha!

I'd rather be in a title scrap than not.

 

[bluemoon32]

They might.

They might not.


Have you tried telling them we actually won it in January.

I'm not nearly as confident in my own head but you've got to front up sometimes haha

 

[Cobwebcat]

The same forecast had as 75%+ likely to beat Palace, Spurs and Southampton. And had us predicted winners for large chunks of the year Liverpool won it.

It makes great reading, and I enjoy it. But it is hardly guidance.

Yeah if you are after exactly what will happen then you won’t find it anywhere…if you do please let me know!

I think 538 are really good and will beat 99% of people’s guesses. To me that’s guidance but the term is subjective.

Here‘s an example. Say at the start of the season you had to predict the final PL table. If you repeated last years table and substituted the relegated teams with the promoted teams you would beat on average 95% (that is a fact not a rough guess) of other methods including what people and pundits think and most algorithms.

538 usually beats the above method. What it can’t do is take into account things like injuries so the bookies beat 538 by using stats and current info. So who can beat the bookies? Matthew Benham and Tony Bloom.

If you look at the post underneath this one you will see a good example of one of the myths I mentioned earlier. It’s not true but people will always say it as they remember the exceptions. It will be repeated every few pages look out for it but make your own mind up.

 

[Manchester33]

Yep. id take ours over theirs anyday.

View attachment 38551

I agree, but it's always hard to judge fixtures that far in advance. For example, Burnley (A), Watford (H) and Leeds (A) in April, when they are scrapping to avoid relegation are probably going to be tougher games than Spurs (H), Saints (A) and Wolves (H) in May as those teams might have nothing to play for by then.

Similarly, Villa and Newcastle look like potential banana skins for us now, but come May when we play them, they might be on the beach having successfully avoided relegation, whereas in April, when they play Liverpool, they might still be on this good run of form and with more ambitions for the rest of the season.

The most important game is vs Liverpool. That really is a must-win game.

 

[Cobwebcat]

This liverpool team certainly don't look like a team that will bottle it, us on ther other hand atm look very unreliable.

I have faith. Performance + luck = result and our performance levels haven’t dipped. As a low scoring sport luck has its say.

 

[hateutd]

Should I hope for the FA Cup or the UCL...?

 

[supercity88]

Yep. id take ours over theirs anyday.

View attachment 38551

Trouble is, when you get to this time of the season they all look tough when you over think them! Burnley, Watford and Leeds playing for survival. Wolves still pushing for Europe and always hard to break down. Villa final day with Gerrard - imagine that if it's down to that game! Newcastle in good form now too and West Ham have been brilliant all season. Brighton play some good stuff too.

For the dippers - plenty of tough games. Imagine Gerrard's Villa beating the dippers!

We shall see.

I wouldn't swap our fixtures though. Their away games are all very difficult and they've got Spurs, Wolves and United who will all look to play that counter game on them and have the ability to if they actually turn up. Which is the real question mark.