Can City win the league?
The last time Arsenal were league leaders and looked as convincing as now was in the 2007/08 season, when they had 47 points after 20 games (they now have 50 points after 19 games). After leading the league for two thirds of the season and going into mid february with a 5 point lead, they ended up in 3rd with 83 points, four behind United who won. Chelsea were 6 points behind Arsenal after 20 games, but ended up 2 points ahead in 2nd place. Moreover: Every team with 50+ points after 19 games in PL history has had a weaker 2nd half of the season. Its therefore not totally unrealistic for us to hope they drop more points in the next 19 games. Likewise, there are plenty of examples of teams having a weaker first half of a season, and then being much stronger in the last 19 games.
Liverpool in 18/19 had 51 points after 19 games, we were 7 points behind at 44. So quite a similar situation. However, we won 18 of the last 19 games (absolutely crazy good) to turn it around. I dont think we are as good as in 18/19, but i also dont think Arsenal are as good as Liverpool were in 18/19 either. They are an impressive young team that has grown with the confidence from each victory. However, they are unexperienced. Liverpool of 18/19 had been in the CL final the season before, Arsenal were not even in europe last season, and they crumbled in the run in for 4th place. While they are much better this season, i dont think they will beat City in a title race if we are in touching distance (0-6 points) in the last 10 games of the season.
This leads me to think that its all on City. The signs in the last two games have been very encouraging: a comeback win vs Spurs, Pep ranting against complacency, the team responding with our best 90 min performance in several months, and several players returning to form (Haaland, KDB, Mahrez, Grealish etc.) The crucial thing now is that the gap does not get wider in the next 3 games (Spurs, Villa, Arsenal). As we are still yet to play against Arsenal, i think its an advantage for us to play them in the cup next week before we face them in the league. Its likely that both teams will line up close to their strongest 11, so Pep will get to see the level between the two teams. In the league we need at least 4 points against them. Should we win at The Emirates though, the title will swing massively in our favour. Lets hope that this week was the start of our comeback. Come on City!