The Title Race 2022/23

[mancityscot]

This season feels a bit too much like 19/20, honestly. It's been very stop-start. We've won a couple games, people have started to hype us up, then we shudder to a halt with dropped points. Some fans say "We always drop points at some time or another, but wait, we'll see a reaction from the team." Then we win a couple games, we get hyped up again, and then drop points again. Repeat cycle. Very frustrating, and not at all the sign of a title-winning side.

if we win it this season it will be an utter miracle. Difficult to see both of united and arsenal suffering the same inconsistency issues that have plagued us all season.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

True Howard Webb has been special for them

 

[youngbob]

Have done a post like this before but will do another.

After 24 games in each season under Pep:

Season	Pos.	P	W	D	L	F	A	Pts	Final pos.	Final pts.
16/17	3rd	24	15	4	5	49	29	49	3rd	78
17/18	1st	24	21	2	1	70	18	65	1st	100
18/19	2nd	24	18	2	4	63	19	56	1st	98
19/20	2nd	24	16	3	5	65	27	51	2nd	81
20/21	1st	24	17	5	2	49	15	56	1st	86
21/22	1st	24	19	3	2	57	14	60	1st	93
22/23	2nd	24	16	4	4	60	24	52	???	???

So, in terms of points per game.

16/17
After 24 games: 2.04
After 38 games: 2.08

17/18
After 24 games: 2.71
After 38 games: 2.63

18/19
After 24 games: 2.33
After 38 games: 2.58

19/20
After 24 games: 2.13
After 38 games: 2.13

20/21
After 24 games: 2.33
After 38 games: 2.26

21/22
After 24 games: 2.50
After 38 games: 2.45

22/23
After 24 games: 2.16
After 38 games?

To reach 90 points from our current position, City are going to have to drastically improve our PPG from by 0.21. Basically we need 38 points from a possible 42, which realistically is 13 wins from 14 games (or 12 wins and a couple of draws). Arsenal are currently running at 2.35 PPP - to reach 90 points from their current position, they only need to increase their PPG to 2.37. 36 points from a possible 45, which is roughly 12 wins from 15 games. United are getting giddy but they will need to win basically all of their remaining games to reach 90 points. Arsenal have a lot more breathing room and, as a result, United dropping points in even one game will rule them out almost completely. Only a massive Arsenal collapse will give United a chance of getting back in.

I think City are looking at about 80-85 points based on how previous seasons have turned out and how our PPG rate is working out so far. Whether that's enough to win the title depends on other teams. It'll definitely be enough for 3rd and most likely will be enough for 2nd. I really would like us to go all out for the FA Cup and Champions League. Finishing in the top 4 and having a good cup run would be superb season.

 

[Cobwebcat]

Arsenal 83
City 82

Gulp!

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Blue_Lightsaber]

Just had a look at a bigger picture



Last 10 games.. (coincidentally 10 games played after the WC break).

Doesn't feel like it but we've not been terrible.. just not been great.. the 10 goals given up is the sore spot.. along with the farsical var call at rags.

 

[Deleted member 81382]

Before we play Arsenal at home, we've got seven league games:

Newcastle (H)
Palace (A)
West Ham (H)
Liverpool (H)
Southampton (A)
Leicester (H)
Brighton (A)
Arsenal (H)

There's some tricky fixtures there but we just need to stay within touching distance. If we can then that game could potentially have a very 2011/12 derby feel about it. The dates are almost identical too, albeit there's five more games to play after Arsenal not two like in 11/12.

 

[117 M34]

Bookies still have us as favourites.
Thought it might have tipped towards arsenal as evn though we are at the same stage as we were before this weekend, there is 1 less game for us to catch up.
Arsenal have got Bournemouth at home next weekend so they will surely win.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Bookies still have us as favourites.
Thought it might have tipped towards arsenal as evn though we are at the same stage as we were before this weekend, there is 1 less game for us to catch up.
Arsenal have got Bournemouth at home next weekend so they will surely win.

Bournemouth are dross so it will be a miracle if they get anything there. Big game for us next week. Newcastle are hard to break down and being 12.30 game usually means a pretty flat game and atmosphere. Think the crowd could play a part but it’s rare in a 12.30 game unless it’s a Derby or something.

I think it’s definitely one game at a time for us. We are so inconsistent.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Bookies still have us as favourites.
Thought it might have tipped towards arsenal as evn though we are at the same stage as we were before this weekend, there is 1 less game for us to catch up.
Arsenal have got Bournemouth at home next weekend so they will surely win.

To explain that I think you just have to look beyond the results of the last two games for each team at how we've actually been playing. Arsenal scraped two quite unconvincing wins - they went behind twice last week and needed a massive slice of luck in injury time. Today they didn't create an awful lot. But still... 6 pts on the board.

City on the other hand have had two very dominant performance and fate has conspired to prevent us from winning one of probably the most one-sided games I've ever seen. It was actual highway robbery.

A betting man will look at that from a law of averages perspective and say that over another 13/14 games then balance of probabilities suggests things will start to shift in our favour. Saying that, I think the betting markets are more confident of that than I am!

 

[BL2blue]

Bookies still have us as favourites.
Thought it might have tipped towards arsenal as evn though we are at the same stage as we were before this weekend, there is 1 less game for us to catch up.
Arsenal have got Bournemouth at home next weekend so they will surely win.

And Everton at home midweek which they will also surely win.