The Title Race 2022/23

[alexmcity]

If the gap reduces over the next two then I think we'll go on and win it. But if it stays the same or increases it's game over.

If the gap stays the same before our game, we can win it. What's more, I'd back us to win it.

As you say, things can change quickly. Even if Arsenal are 8 (!) pts clear before the game at the Etihad, we can win it, provided that we beat them and then win the game in hand. They are less experienced than Ferguson's United, who were 8 pts clear with 6 games to go. Squeaky bum time, etc.

Arsenal have 4 difficult games in a row in late April and early May: City (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a) and Brighton (h). They can drop 5-8 pts in these games. Also,I wouldn't bet against a shocking result in their last 2 games.

Generally, I find 538's predictions much more reliable than fans' opinions, for they are not subject to various biases to the same extent. But it's a statistical tool that can't take some relevant factors into account, e.g. title-winning experience and City's ability to win close races.

Arsenal are an excellent team, but we are better and, IMO, are slight favourites to win the title. If they win, fair play to them.

Edit: We are likely to have 2 games in hand before our game with Arsenal. They may be 11 pts clear before that game. And we can still win the league, if we win that game and then the games in hand. The last weeks will be incredible if we stay in all competitions.

 

[Alfie Budd]

If the gap stays the same before our game, we can win it. What's more, I'd back us to win it.

As you say, things can change quickly. Even if Arsenal are 8 (!) pts clear before the game at the Etihad, we can win it, provided that we beat them and then win the game in hand. They are less experienced than Ferguson's United, who were 8 pts clear with 6 games to go. Squeaky bum time, etc.

Arsenal have 4 difficult games in a row in late April and early May: City (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a) and Brighton (h). They can drop 5-8 pts in these games. Also,I wouldn't bet against a shocking result in their last 2 games.

Generally, I find 538's predictions much more reliable than fans' opinions, for they are not subject to various biases to the same extent. But it's a statistical tool that can't take some relevant factors into account, e.g. title-winning experience and City's ability to win close races.

Arsenal are an excellent team, but we are better and, IMO, are slight favourites to win the title. If they win, fair play to them.

Edit: We are likely to have 2 games in hand before our game with Arsenal. They may be 11 pts clear before that game. And we can still win the league, if we win that game and then the games in hand. The last weeks will be incredible if we stay in all competitions.

Excellent post. 100% agree with all of that.
I think it’s certain that we’ll have two games in hand going into the Arsenal game. There are no available spare dates for us to play either of our games that need rearranging (West Ham and Brighton) until May.

 

[supercity88]

If the gap stays the same before our game, we can win it. What's more, I'd back us to win it.

As you say, things can change quickly. Even if Arsenal are 8 (!) pts clear before the game at the Etihad, we can win it, provided that we beat them and then win the game in hand. They are less experienced than Ferguson's United, who were 8 pts clear with 6 games to go. Squeaky bum time, etc.

Arsenal have 4 difficult games in a row in late April and early May: City (a), Chelsea (h), Newcastle (a) and Brighton (h). They can drop 5-8 pts in these games. Also,I wouldn't bet against a shocking result in their last 2 games.

Generally, I find 538's predictions much more reliable than fans' opinions, for they are not subject to various biases to the same extent. But it's a statistical tool that can't take some relevant factors into account, e.g. title-winning experience and City's ability to win close races.

Arsenal are an excellent team, but we are better and, IMO, are slight favourites to win the title. If they win, fair play to them.

Edit: We are likely to have 2 games in hand before our game with Arsenal. They may be 11 pts clear before that game. And we can still win the league, if we win that game and then the games in hand. The last weeks will be incredible if we stay in all competitions.

We can win it as long as it is mathematically possible to do so, but I don't think we will unless we make inroads in the next couple of games. The games are piling up for us, which makes winning games in hand no easy task. We can still win it, and the stats might show us as favourites, but sport doesn't follow the rules or the stats so they're largely pointless. You wouldn't have expected Everton to take a point at our place or beat Arsenal at home but they did. If Arsenal beat Leeds and Liverpool then they'll go on and win it. I don't think they will win at Anfield though!

 

[domalino]

Looking at the calendar, if we get to the FA Cup final and CL final then the only free midweeks we have until the end of the season is 3rd/4th May and the 24th/25th May.

Which means we won't be level with Arsenal on games played until the last match of the season.

IMO that's a pretty big advantage to them because it means they'll have the confidence of being 1st in the table even if we have a game in hand.

 

[blueparrot]

Looking at the calendar, if we get to the FA Cup final and CL final then the only free midweeks we have until the end of the season is 3rd/4th May and the 24th/25th May.

Which means we won't be level with Arsenal on games played until the last match of the season.

IMO that's a pretty big advantage to them because it means they'll have the confidence of being 1st in the table even if we have a game in hand.

Even better top for a week only , the week the pots handed out :)

 

[Silvatoure21]

Excellent post. 100% agree with all of that.
I think it’s certain that we’ll have two games in hand going into the Arsenal game. There are no available spare dates for us to play either of our games that need rearranging (West Ham and Brighton) until May.

Reason 1 million why I hate the international break. We are on fire right now and now we have 2 weeks off. Plus we have to cram these games in an already difficult crammed end to the season. These internationals are a waste of time

 

[BlueMoonRisin’]

We have to win every game and hope Arsenal drop enough points, it's a simple as that.

 

[alexmcity]

If Arsenal beat Leeds and Liverpool then they'll go on and win it.

That's far from guaranteed. Arsenal will have 8 games after that, mostly against teams fighting for CL or to avoid relegation. A lot could happen. I'd be surprised if they won all their "easy" games. Time will tell. We should hang in there and beat them.

 

[Lavinda Past]

Even better top for a week only , the week the pots handed out :)

It'd be lovely to pip them on goal difference on the last day. Their fans would never recover from that after 'running away' with the league all season...

 

[Stephen230]

We win 11 out of 11, it'll be ours.

We win 10 out of 11, including beating Arsenal, it'll be ours.

We win 9 out of 11, including beating Arsenal or winning 10 out of 11 but not beating Arsenal we'd have a small chance.


Any other scenario probably won't be enough for me.

We max out at 94 points, Arsenal at 99 points. The winner is probably going to need 90 points minimum in my opinion.

FiveThirtyEight still estimates lower which I'm not sure about:

View attachment 72690


According to FiveThirtyEight we're significant favourites to win every remaining game. Arsenal are only favourites in 8/10, City (A) and Liverpool (A) they're not and they're only 5% more likely to beat Newcastle (A) than they're to lose.

Stats don't decide games but they're a decent indicator.

Sporting index have Arsenal on 88 and City on 86.

As you say, means nothing really. But I’d certainly take our chances if Arsenal were done on anything sub 90.