The Title Race 2022/23

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Looking at the calendar, if we get to the FA Cup final and CL final then the only free midweeks we have until the end of the season is 3rd/4th May and the 24th/25th May.

Which means we won't be level with Arsenal on games played until the last match of the season.

IMO that's a pretty big advantage to them because it means they'll have the confidence of being 1st in the table even if we have a game in hand.
If we get past Bayern, those will be the only free dates even if (heaven forbid) we end up losing both the FA Cup and CL semis.
The only possibility of there being other slots is if we were to go out to Bayern - then the two midweeks when CL SF are played would become available and even then, West Ham may still be involved in Europa Conference on those dates.
 
If we get past Bayern, those will be the only free dates even if (heaven forbid) we end up losing both the FA Cup and CL semis.
The only possibility of there being other slots is if we were to go out to Bayern - then the two midweeks when CL SF are played would become available and even then, West Ham may still be involved in Europa Conference on those dates.

So there's a very good chance we have to beat Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford in the last week of the season to win the league.
 
I think we see losses for Arsenal at Liverpool, City, and Chelsea. Chelsea seem to be coming together a little bit. That will put Arsenal at 90 points. That gives us space for a loss and a draw somewhere in the mix and would have to hope for the goal differential. Not a lot of wiggle room for an off match the rest of the way.
 
That's far from guaranteed. Arsenal will have 8 games after that, mostly against teams fighting for CL or to avoid relegation. A lot could happen. I'd be surprised if they won all their "easy" games. Time will tell. We should hang in there and beat them.

That's why I said "if"!

I'm always positive about City's chances, but just because we've won it before doesn't mean we will every season. We need Arsenal to drop points sooner rather than later, because the games in hand take pressure off. It's much better to have points on the board. They could come to our place miles ahead and whilst losing to us might mean we could go above them, it doesn't lead to a change in momentum or any additional pressure on them because they'd still have a points advantage. We need to close the gap soon.

Last season showed us how difficult things can be over the latter stages of a season. We were helped by Liverpool also competing in every competition and not being able to rest. But we had to make changes for the FA Cup semi which cost us. We were down to the bare bones at times defensively following the Atletico tie and ultimately managed to just get over the line in the league but didn't have enough in the CL.

This season we have the benefit of a Cup semi we can win with some changes, or one we can make changes early in if things go to plan. But those league games are stacking up and our route to the CL final is the toughest it could have been really.
 
They lost at Everton, drew with Brentford at home and then lost at home to us picking up 1pt out of a possible 9. So things can change very quickly.

Having said that, I think the next two will be definitive. We play Liverpool before they play Leeds at home. Then we play Southampton away before they play Liverpool at Anfield the following day.

If the gap reduces over the next two then I think we'll go on and win it. But if it stays the same or increases it's game over.
If we don't beat the dippers and they do then it is game over and the head to head may not prove crucial. We probably need to win all the games in April to have a good chance. It is very hard to say how they will handle the pressure if we keep wining.The problem is with CL and FA games coming up will our eye be off the ball? Anyway rejoice that it is not the dippers or the mob across the way that are going to snatch it from us.
 
That's why I said "if"!

I'm always positive about City's chances, but just because we've won it before doesn't mean we will every season. We need Arsenal to drop points sooner rather than later, because the games in hand take pressure off. It's much better to have points on the board. They could come to our place miles ahead and whilst losing to us might mean we could go above them, it doesn't lead to a change in momentum or any additional pressure on them because they'd still have a points advantage. We need to close the gap soon.

Last season showed us how difficult things can be over the latter stages of a season. We were helped by Liverpool also competing in every competition and not being able to rest. But we had to make changes for the FA Cup semi which cost us. We were down to the bare bones at times defensively following the Atletico tie and ultimately managed to just get over the line in the league but didn't have enough in the CL.

This season we have the benefit of a Cup semi we can win with some changes, or one we can make changes early in if things go to plan. But those league games are stacking up and our route to the CL final is the toughest it could have been really.
It would be interesting to know if our different brand of football this season has helped us to conserve energy. Did the free wheeling total football of last season with players popping up all over the pitch mean that we actually had more hard yards in our legs than we do this season ?
 
So there's a very good chance we have to beat Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford in the last week of the season to win the league.
That’s correct. I’d much rather the Brighton game gets put into the midweek at the beginning of May (between Fulham away and Leeds at home) and then have West Ham at home in the final week of the season.
 
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