The Title Race 2022/23

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We've done our job for the weekend.

The Arsenal players will no doubt be looking at the table and thinking how on earth are City only three points behind us when we've been close to flawless all season. Hopefully the prospect of having to maintain that level for another eight games in order to see us off will be too much pressure for them to handle.
 
DenisLawBackHeel74 said:
What data is this based on, previous results, fan voting, BBC ‘expert knowledge’…….
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The company who made that has nothing to do with the BBC. It'll be similar to the 538 model. Using statistics to model regression and a combination of "team strength", historical results and recent form indicators. This stuff is always speculative but it doesn't look a million miles away to me.

According to that Arsenal have a 0.4% chance of winning all their remaining games. We've got a 7% chance. Arsenal have four games where their chances of winning are <60%. We don't have any.

The 538 model is showing a similar result to that at the moment, 58% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

I think one really important thing right now is that Arsenal have got two opportunities to fuck up before we play eachother. And any team can fuck up against any team in this league as has been shown time and time again. If they drop more points before we face off they'll be mentally in a do or die situation which will either make them or break them.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
The company who made that has nothing to do with the BBC. It'll be similar to the 538 model. Using statistics to model regression and a combination of "team strength", historical results and recent form indicators. This stuff is always speculative but it doesn't look a million miles away to me.

According to that Arsenal have a 0.4% chance of winning all their remaining games. We've got a 7% chance. Arsenal have four games where their chances of winning are <60%. We don't have any.

The 538 model is showing a similar result to that at the moment, 58% chance of winning.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

I think one really important thing right now is that Arsenal have now got two opportunities to fuck up before we play eachother. And any team can fuck up against any team in this league as has been shown time and time again. If they drop more points before we face off they'll be mentally in a do or die situation which will either make them or break them.
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Cheers for that.
 
Cobwebcat said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Gulp

88-88
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I'm struggling to see how the gap has narrowed since April 12th.

Presumably it must be because we were expected to beat Leicester by more than 2 goals. Also there must be some rounding for the points to be even but the win % to be 58-42. It could be 88.4-87.6 or something like that.
 
Cobwebcat said:
They really don’t (sometimes) I know it sounds strange but it’s easy enough to Google..the maths are well known. Put it this way..you mention quite a few games not being enough and you are correct but wouldn’t it be strange if the number that was enough happened to be 38? The number of games that gives the best predictor of a team’s actual strength is nearer to 1.5 seasons but the results are only part of the equation.

Brighton and Brentford were the first to use data which best predicted what was likely to indicate future success and basically stripped most of the luck out of results. In the long run performance (of which xG is a big part) is a much better predictor of how good your team is than the result.

A clever club such as City would not overreact to a run of bad results if the performances suggested that they were being unlucky. Likewise Brentford famously sacked a manager who was doing well results wise because they knew the team was under performing but was being lucky and that luck would not last. The fans went mad understandably but Brentford were correct and went on to gain promotion to the PL.

Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham have made billions on the back of knowledge like this and taking people’s money who insist it’s all bollocks. Thankfully our club know it’s not.
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We got beat today on xg against the worst form club. The game was over after 25 mins, but we still lost it.
 
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