Next 3 are huge for Arsenal:
Arsenal's last 5 home games v Chelsea, Won 2, Lost 2, Drawn 1. Under Arteta it's 1 win and 2 losses. Including a 2-1 loss to Lampard's Chelsea.
Newcastle have lost 3 times in their last 30 home league games, 2 x Liverpool and 1 x City. They've only lost to Liverpool at home this season and an early red card prevented them getting back into that game. Newcastle beat them at the end of last season when they were going for top 4 and drew at the Emirates this season.
In their last 11 meetings (includes 1 league cup game this season), Brighton v Arsenal, it's 5 wins for Brighton, 3 draws, 3 wins for Arsenal. At the Emirates in the last 5 games it's 1 Arsenal win, 1 draw, 3 Brighton wins.
I don't see them winning all 3 and that means assuming we do our job, we can afford at least 2 losses. If they win those 3 then it will get tough for us.
I think we wrap it up at Chelsea (H). We'll still have to work our bollocks off against West Ham (H), Leeds (H) and Everton (A).
Statistically the hardest 5 games left:
Next is Forest (A) for Arsenal. 66% chance of winning for Arsenal.
Then Chelsea (H) for us. 68% chance of winning for us.