The Title Race 2022/23

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Arsenal have to play us twice, dippers at anfield, Newcastle away, spurs away
Not to mention united and Chelsea at home
It’s a long hard season
Not saying they can’t win it, but it certainly won’t be easy especially if they are in Europe as every game will be on Sunday after the rest have played
Or a red card against a lesser team
Or a few injuries
…….
 
alexmcity said:
Being on course to X pts is just a way of speaking, it shouldn't be taken too literary. To say that Arsenal are on course to win X pts is to project tendencies from the first 17 games onto 38 games. And that's highly problematic. Getting 90 pts is anything but easy, even on the basis of 44 pts after the first 17 games. Remember, Arsenal have won 90 pts only once (2004), and the league was less competitive back then. Martinelli and Saka are top talents, but they ain't Henry. It's not impossible for Arsenal to get 90 or even 95 pts. But it's not as likely as it may seem after the first 17 games.

Just as City dropped 5 pts in 2 home games vs Brentford and Everton, so will Arsenal drop points unexpectedly. Again, they don't outperform City in terms of creating and conceding chances. Nobody expected Watford to twat Liverpool 3:0 after Liverpool dropped just 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20. They were on course to 110 pts back then. And then dropped 13 pts in the last 10 games. It's not like they didn't want to break City's record of 100 pts. Form comes and goes, often unexpectedly.
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Agree with all that pal.

What I don't get is people claiming we will win the title because Arsenal haven't got close to 90 points before, so can't possibly do it now. Like that in itself will decide it for a start. They can. And they can win it too.

Of course, so can we. I don't really give a toss if they get 95 points or 75. As long as we get more than them, and anyone else.
 
Coatigan said:
Agree with all that pal.

What I don't get is people claiming we will win the title because Arsenal haven't got close to 90 points before, so can't possibly do it now. Like that in itself will decide it for a start. They can. And they can win it too.

Of course, so can we. I don't really give a toss if they get 95 points or 75. As long as we get more than them, and anyone else.
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I agree, the fact that Arsenal haven't won 90 pts since 2004 isn't of great predictive value. Liverpool hadn't won 90 pts over 38 games before Klopp either. The argument is a bit different, though: is there sufficient evidence that Arsenal have a truly great team capable of getting 90+ pts. Liverpool reached a CL final before having a 90 pts season. Regarding Arsenal, the first 17 games, and the performances in them, don't provide such evidence for me. They may or may not win 90+ pts. Personally, I think they won't get 90 pts. If we get 88 pts, and it's not enough, fair play to Arsenal. They'll deserve the title.
 
Gus Fring said:
I think people need realise Arsenal are here to stay much like Leicester were in their title winning season, everybody said the same thing oh they’ll lose 5 in a row soon or they’ll fall a cliff and they didn’t just like Arsenal won’t.
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When Leicester won the league, they did so with 81 points. They dropped points in 15 games and still won the league by 10 points. They were hardly consistent, but they benefited from every other big team having an off-year.

With their lack of depth, involvement in other competitions, inexperience, and the after-effects of the world cup, it's unlikely that Arsenal will keep up their current form. In fact, I think they will drop points in at least 3 games before the end of Feb.

It's really down to City to capitalise though. We have to punish them as and when they do drop points.
 
Arsenal has 21 games remaining (a total of 63 points available).

If they continue their current form until the end of the season, they will finish with 98 points.

If they replicate their form from last season (which I think seems like a worst-case scenario), they would finish with 82 points.

Considering they have to play:
- Us home and away
- Liverpool away
- Spurs away
- United home
- Newcastle away
and that they can drop points against lesser teams (like they did vs Southampton), I think it's likely they'll finish around 88 points.

Our current form has us finishing on 86 points.

I think it's incredibly unlikely that we won't improve slightly.

All things considered, those two games against Arsenal are going to be huge, title-deciding games and it's likely we'll be close enough to catch them during a high-pressure run-in.
 
blueparrot said:
No, but then it wasn't just one game last season either was it, or any season really can think of 3 straight off the top of my head from last season.
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True. Last season we dropped 5 pts vs Southampton and Palace at home within a month. Virtually every season we drop "silly" points at home. Even in 17/18 we dropped 4 pts vs Everton and Huddersfield...
 
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