The Title Race 2022/23

[supercity88]

To win three in a row is incredibly difficult. With Haaland, Alvarez, Akanji and the likes of Lewis and Palmer being more involved you'd expect us to kick on with fresh impetus with those guys wanting the title. Ultimately though, it's been a decent start to the season despite playing poorly in many games and some poor results too. CL last 16. League Cup QF. We're second in the league but Arsenal have set a blistering pace. They're on for 98pts at their current rate (103 before last night). I would imagine their second half of the season declines to a position similar to our first half, if not worse, and they end up in the high 80s.

What is slightly concerning is that there doesn't seem to be enough urgency or ruthlessness at the moment. I'm hopeful this tough run of games will serve as a catalyst to kickstart our league campaign. For Bernardo to go back to his tireless running and class. For the mistakes on the ball to be cut out. For the balance in creating for Haaland and others scoring to return. For the defence to be harder to beat.

The next 7 games in the league are very difficult, but we don't need a huge upturn in form to win the league. We're heading towards 86pts at the current pts per game. That doesn't need to dramatically improve to win the title, especially when we still play Arsenal twice.

We have 6 league games before we go to the Emirates. We play Chelsea, United and Spurs away and Wolves, Villa and Spurs at home. Arsenal have 4 league games - Spurs A, United H, Everton A, Brentford H. So we have the opportunity to be above them when we go to their place, and put the nail in their title coffin if they haven't done that themselves. It's an incredibly difficult period for us, and time to step up. We thrive on these tough periods.

 

[alexmcity]

Quite easily.

It's quite difficult for Arsenal to maintain the current rate of winning points. It's virtually impossible. Arsenal's xPts is 2.17 per game, which translates into 82 pts in a normal season. Nothing guarantees that they will continue to outperform their xG. They don't create more and they don't concede fewer chances than City. That's why 538 has both teams on 83 pts at the end of the season. That's slightly conservative. I think City will get 86-88 pts, not sure about Arsenal.

Recently, only two teams have won 90+ pts easily: Pep's City and Klopp's Liverpool. Is there sufficient evidence to suggest that Arsenal are at that level?

The best analogy would be with Conte's Chelsea. They got 93 pts. But they had several world-class players in Hazard, Costa, etc. and a more proven manager. Also, they outperformed their xG by a huge margin.

It's too early to say whether this Arsenal team is comparable to those teams. Might be wrong, but I doubt it. Big changes happen not only from one to another season, but within seasons as well. Can see Arsenal dropping 9 pts in the first half of the season and 19 pts in the second half of the season, which would result in 86 pts. Time will tell.

 

[Tb1981]

They are. Quite easily.

We are as well, if we improve and play like we can. If we don't, it won't really matter, as they won't even need 90 then.

easily?
They could fall off a cliff
They have had a good 17 games
There is 21 left
Not even half way

 

[Tb1981]

For Arsenal not to get 90 points they will have to drop at least 18 more points from here, when they’ve only dropped 7 so far. I’d say it’s unlikely they will get less than 90, which puts a lot of pressure on us, we certainly can’t afford too many more slip ups

I think they will be around 90
I think we are the issue and if we can get more

 

[bluenova]

It's quite difficult for Arsenal to maintain the current rate of winning points. It's virtually impossible. Arsenal's xPts is 2.17 per game, which translates into 82 pts in a normal season. Nothing guarantees that they will continue to outperform their xG. They don't create more and they don't concede fewer chances than City. That's why 538 has both teams on 83 pts at the end of the season. That's slightly conservative. I think City will get 86-88 pts, not sure about Arsenal.

Recently, only two teams have won 90+ pts easily: Pep's City and Klopp's Liverpool. Is there sufficient evidence to suggest that Arsenal are at that level?

The best analogy would be with Conte's Chelsea. They got 93 pts. But they had several world-class players in Hazard, Costa, etc. and a more proven manager. Also, they outperformed their xG by a huge margin.

It's too early to say whether this Arsenal team is comparable to those teams. Might be wrong, but I doubt it. Big changes happen not only from one to another season, but within seasons as well. Can see Arsenal dropping 9 pts in the first half of the season and 19 pts in the second half of the season, which would result in 86 pts. Time will tell.

I think it's easy to forget we're only just past a third of the season.

Last season Arsenal had an 8 game unbeaten run, and another 11 game streak where they took 28 pts - and all in a season where they finished with 69pts.

They're clearly moving up a level this season, but the form they've shown so far is hugely difficult to keep up for anything close to a whole season.

 

[Coatigan]

easily?
They could fall off a cliff
They have had a good 17 games
There is 21 left
Not even half way

Yep, easily. If in 17 games they have dropped only 7 points, they are on course to hit over 98.

They Could fall off a cliff. But so far everything points to them getting 90 points. The longer it goes on, the bigger that cliff needs to be, and the less likely.

They might even need less, who knows. Everyone is assuming we will get 90+ points, but as it stands we are on course for less than that. We need to improve to get to that. They just need to not drop off a cliff.

 

[Coatigan]

It's quite difficult for Arsenal to maintain the current rate of winning points. It's virtually impossible. Arsenal's xPts is 2.17 per game, which translates into 82 pts in a normal season. Nothing guarantees that they will continue to outperform their xG. They don't create more and they don't concede fewer chances than City. That's why 538 has both teams on 83 pts at the end of the season. That's slightly conservative. I think City will get 86-88 pts, not sure about Arsenal.

Recently, only two teams have won 90+ pts easily: Pep's City and Klopp's Liverpool. Is there sufficient evidence to suggest that Arsenal are at that level?

The best analogy would be with Conte's Chelsea. They got 93 pts. But they had several world-class players in Hazard, Costa, etc. and a more proven manager. Also, they outperformed their xG by a huge margin.

It's too early to say whether this Arsenal team is comparable to those teams. Might be wrong, but I doubt it. Big changes happen not only from one to another season, but within seasons as well. Can see Arsenal dropping 9 pts in the first half of the season and 19 pts in the second half of the season, which would result in 86 pts. Time will tell.

And yet here we are, weeks after a similar claim, and they are on course to get well over 90, and we, currently, are not. Which is why your 538 has them, rather than us as favourites.

As I said before though when roles were reversed and folk were, again, taking it for granted. It can all change pretty quickly. The numbers don't tell you who will win it in the end.

 

[MarsLlama]

Gone back and forth a few times on this but current position is we're going to win the league.

 

[Gus Fring]

I think people need realise Arsenal are here to stay much like Leicester were in their title winning season, everybody said the same thing oh they’ll lose 5 in a row soon or they’ll fall a cliff and they didn’t just like Arsenal won’t.

They have tests coming up as do we and 6 weeks from now we’ll know whether the title is still alive with our run of games coming up, it’s make or break we either wake up and kick on or we stutter through Jan/early Feb and potentially find ourselves well out of it that’s the bottom line.

I have faith we can as we have before put together a good run and challenge so I don’t post this as a doom and gloomer, but I also have reservations this season about us that I haven’t before and hope they get put to bed soon.

To put another twist on things I’d happily finish 2nd 7 points behind if it meant winning the champions league but that’s another story.

Either way, up the fucking blues and hopefully the quadruple will be in the bank by May

 

[alexmcity]

And yet here we are, weeks after a similar claim, and they are on course to get well over 90, and we, currently, are not.

Being on course to X pts is just a way of speaking, it shouldn't be taken too literary. To say that Arsenal are on course to win X pts is to project tendencies from the first 17 games onto 38 games. And that's highly problematic. Getting 90 pts is anything but easy, even on the basis of 44 pts after the first 17 games. Remember, Arsenal have won 90 pts only once (2004), and the league was less competitive back then. Martinelli and Saka are top talents, but they ain't Henry. It's not impossible for Arsenal to get 90 or even 95 pts. But it's not as likely as it may seem after the first 17 games.

Just as City dropped 5 pts in 2 home games vs Brentford and Everton, so will Arsenal drop points unexpectedly. Again, they don't outperform City in terms of creating and conceding chances. Nobody expected Watford to twat Liverpool 3:0 after Liverpool dropped just 2 pts in the first 28 games in 19/20. They were on course to 110 pts back then. And then dropped 13 pts in the last 10 games. It's not like they didn't want to break City's record of 100 pts. Form comes and goes, often unexpectedly.