The Title Race - 2023/24

[supercity88]

I'm loving this year, as it feels like a proper title race, and I really hope all three drop some points (with City dropping just a couple less than everyone else).

For those not enjoying it, I think there's a bit of a hangover from previous run ins, where there were no ups and down, just must win games. 2018/19 I found painful at times, we won 14 in a row, with five 1-0 wins, and ended up with the title by a point. It's like watching someone do one of those metal buzz wire puzzles where you move you're moving the ring around, and as soon as it hits the metal it's game over. For 14 games in a row!

It's fucking intense, but if you do win it after a battle like this it's so much sweeter.

 

[supercity88]

I agree with your point. If you win, say, 4 games, then it's a bit more likely to win the 5th game than if you consider it in isolation (though not much more likely, as the role of chance can't be eliminated).

But I have inflated the percentages so that such a tendency doesn’t change the probabilities significantly. For instance, I've given Arsenal a 60% chance to win at Spurs, whereas the bookies give them under 45%.

Our run of 14 wins in 18/19 was unlikely, that's why such runs in the big leagues are rare, especially in England, Italy and Spain. Our second half of 18/19 was the best in the history of the big leagues.

So, in terms of cold numbers, the chance that Arsenal or Liverpool will win all of their remaining games is under 20% (from today's perspective). Things may change if the opposition teams suffer many injuries or get red cards, etc.

In the corresponding thread for the 21/22 season, I wrote that both Liverpool and City were likely to drop points in the remaining games after the draw at the Etihad (2:2). And they did, Liverpool vs Spurs and us vs West Ham. It's utterly difficult to win the final 9-10 games when you are in Europe as well.

Personally, I think that it is likely that either Arsenal or Liverpool will drop points in at least two of the remaining 7 games. How likely is it that both of them drop pts in at least two games? I think the chance for it is bigger than the chance one of them to win all of their remaining games.

Such calculations are no substitute for reality, though. In reality, something can happen even if the chance is extremely small...As they say, it's difficult to predict, especially the future :)

Ultimately Arsenal are in the best form. 1 draw and 10 wins in their last 11. Last lost on 31st December. 8 wins in a row at one point. But top on goal difference. Can they keep it going with the pressures of the CL. They don't rotate the CBs or Odegaard. Can they stay fit and in form right to the end?

The dippers have won 5 in a row all season. Dropping points at the swamp makes me question whether they can go and win 7. Van Dijk remains key. An injury for him and it could be costly. And they might actually have to pick a strong team in the Europa at some point. Can they manage to sustain their energy levels with a relatively new squad?

We've won 6 in a row. And went 9 wins and a draw in 10. Unbeaten since 6th December. 1pt off top and never really looking like the ruthless machine we've come to expect. What a position to be in. Not in our hands, but win all 7 and we should win the league. If we don't, fair play to whoever does. They'll have been made to work for it.

Injuries can cause issues too. We're going to Real with a depleted defence. We have Luton at home which hopefully means we can rotate and win. Arsenal play Villa, who whilst having the Europa Conference, will be a test for them to go again. They then go to Bayern before playing Wolves away and Chelsea at home.

And ultimately City need Rodri. Lose him and we're in trouble. A lot has to come together.

The fact we're in this position is unbelievable to be honest, and I'm relaxed and enjoying it. If we win fuck all, I'll just watch the documentary again. That's there forever and whilst I want more, losing Gundo and Mahrez and having a season with a lot of injuries and Rodri missing 4 league games which we failed to win is a fair excuse in my book.

 

[wolviedinho]

Ultimately Arsenal are in the best form. 1 draw and 10 wins in their last 11. Last lost on 31st December. 8 wins in a row at one point. But top on goal difference. Can they keep it going with the pressures of the CL. They don't rotate the CBs or Odegaard. Can they stay fit and in form right to the end?

The dippers have won 5 in a row all season. Dropping points at the swamp makes me question whether they can go and win 7. Van Dijk remains key. An injury for him and it could be costly. And they might actually have to pick a strong team in the Europa at some point. Can they manage to sustain their energy levels with a relatively new squad?

We've won 6 in a row. And went 9 wins and a draw in 10. Unbeaten since 6th December. 1pt off top and never really looking like the ruthless machine we've come to expect. What a position to be in. Not in our hands, but win all 7 and we should win the league. If we don't, fair play to whoever does. They'll have been made to work for it.

Injuries can cause issues too. We're going to Real with a depleted defence. We have Luton at home which hopefully means we can rotate and win. Arsenal play Villa, who whilst having the Europa Conference, will be a test for them to go again. They then go to Bayern before playing Wolves away and Chelsea at home.

And ultimately City need Rodri. Lose him and we're in trouble. A lot has to come together.

The fact we're in this position is unbelievable to be honest, and I'm relaxed and enjoying it. If we win fuck all, I'll just watch the documentary again. That's there forever and whilst I want more, losing Gundo and Mahrez and having a season with a lot of injuries and Rodri missing 4 league games which we failed to win is a fair excuse in my book.

Feel exactly the same.

Really need to find a decent Rodri backup for next season. Someone who is bit older that can do a competent job in a few roles would be perfect.

 

[69FACUPfinal]

That's an interesting analysis but it assumes all the games are independent of each other. In practice, I dont think they are. If a team gets on a roll, then they can become more likely to win their subsequent games. What were the odds on us winning our last 14 in 2019? Prob <1% (especially as we had come off a dodgy Xmas). But as we got closer and closer to the end, I think the players felt it would happen - which mattered greatly when we were struggling to break down Burnley and Leicester - and went a goal down to Brighton on the last day.

That doesnt apply to fans - I was a total wreck during that run-in, especially in the last 2 months.

I hated 18/19, I was on that wreck with you. I foresaw same happening Jan 22, even though we were well clear, Dips had loads of games in hand. It was agony on the last day. Am more chilled this season, as sadly poor transfers pre season, injuries and small squad have taken their toll - along with stupid draws Spuds, Chavs, Palace and outright corruption imo with two perfectly good goals disallowed v Dips. I think we fall short. I loathe Arsenal but I really hope they rain on Klopps farewell tour.

Fwiw Dips will be nowhere near next season, off cycle and all the team miraculously cured of *asthma. Normal service will hopefully resume at City if we get a decent xfer window.

 

[alexmcity]

Ultimately Arsenal are in the best form. 1 draw and 10 wins in their last 11. Last lost on 31st December. 8 wins in a row at one point. But top on goal difference. Can they keep it going with the pressures of the CL. They don't rotate the CBs or Odegaard. Can they stay fit and in form right to the end?

The dippers have won 5 in a row all season. Dropping points at the swamp makes me question whether they can go and win 7. Van Dijk remains key. An injury for him and it could be costly. And they might actually have to pick a strong team in the Europa at some point. Can they manage to sustain their energy levels with a relatively new squad?

We've won 6 in a row. And went 9 wins and a draw in 10. Unbeaten since 6th December. 1pt off top and never really looking like the ruthless machine we've come to expect. What a position to be in. Not in our hands, but win all 7 and we should win the league. If we don't, fair play to whoever does. They'll have been made to work for it.

Injuries can cause issues too. We're going to Real with a depleted defence. We have Luton at home which hopefully means we can rotate and win. Arsenal play Villa, who whilst having the Europa Conference, will be a test for them to go again. They then go to Bayern before playing Wolves away and Chelsea at home.

And ultimately City need Rodri. Lose him and we're in trouble. A lot has to come together.

The fact we're in this position is unbelievable to be honest, and I'm relaxed and enjoying it. If we win fuck all, I'll just watch the documentary again. That's there forever and whilst I want more, losing Gundo and Mahrez and having a season with a lot of injuries and Rodri missing 4 league games which we failed to win is a fair excuse in my book.

Arsenal were in the best form in February. I don't think they are in better form than us now. They parked the bus at the Etihad, even though we were without several key players in defence: Ederson, Stones, Walker, and Ake got injured. 27% possession was a bit pathetic. The other good team they played after Liverpool in early February was Porto, and that was nothing to write home about.

I wonder whether it would be better for us to play them in the CL semis instead of Bayern IF we beat Real. Too early to think about that, though. It won't be easy to beat Real two seasons in a row. Bayern live for the CL too. They'll try to save the season by reaching the CL final...

 

[Blu3m00n91]

The levels set by Liverpool/City 2017-2020 will never be reached again. To get over 30 wins in a 38 league season is just insane. Even if we win our last 7 games we still end up on 28 wins.

 

[supercity88]

I hated 18/19, I was on that wreck with you. I foresaw same happening Jan 22, even though we were well clear, Dips had loads of games in hand. It was agony on the last day. Am more chilled this season, as sadly poor transfers pre season, injuries and small squad have taken their toll - along with stupid draws Spuds, Chavs, Palace and outright corruption imo with two perfectly good goals disallowed v Dips. I think we fall short. I loathe Arsenal but I really hope they rain on Klopps farewell tour.

Fwiw Dips will be nowhere near next season, off cycle and all the team miraculously cured of *asthma. Normal service will hopefully resume at City if we get a decent xfer window.

I don't understand the perspective that we've had poor transfers or stupid results. We lost to Brentford and drew at home with Everton last season. This year we've actually played well in pretty much every game but had late goals conceded to cost points. In previous campaigns we've been flat and not got results. It's no different.

In terms of transfers, the fact De Bruyne, Haaland, Stones, Grealish have been out for long parts as well as Rodri being suspended for 4 games yet are where we are surely means the transfers have been good and the squad is doing an excellent job? Factor in Gundo and Mahrez leaving and it's staggering we're still fighting on all fronts really all things considered.

 

[supercity88]

Arsenal were in the best form in February. I don't think they are in better form than us now. They parked the bus at the Etihad, even though we were without several key players in defence: Ederson, Stones, Walker, and Ake got injured. 27% possession was a bit pathetic. The other good team they played after Liverpool in early February was Porto, and that was nothing to write home about.

I wonder whether it would be better for us if we played them in the CL semis. Our record vs English teams hasn't been great, but I think we'll beat them. Might be wrong, but I don't think that them peaking in February/March will help them in late April and May...They were tired after the game at Anfield and lost the next two league games. Energy is a bounded resource.

They've had favourable fixtures but they've drawn at our place and won 10 other games so they've had better results. That includes a win against Liverpool too.

I'm not sure it came across, but my point on Arsenal is that despite that form they're top on goal difference and 1pt ahead of us. Form like that should have them a few points clear. So what's done is done and they still have to go and win 7 more league games whilst balancing the CL knockouts. Their performances against Porto showed they're a bit nervous on that stage still, but Bayern are in awful form. I hope they at least take it to the 2nd leg to force Arsenal into fielding a strong side and having to battle away from home.

They also clearly don't believe they can win without their CBs and Odegaard and I question whether they can sustain their levels when playing so frequently with so much at stake.

We're the only side that have proven we can. The majority of this Liverpool team have never been in this position either. But the Europa League affords them the opportunity to rotate at least.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I don't understand the perspective that we've had poor transfers or stupid results. We lost to Brentford and drew at home with Everton last season. This year we've actually played well in pretty much every game but had late goals conceded to cost points. In previous campaigns we've been flat and not got results. It's no different.

Every season we have posters listing the games we were expected to win and didn’t, citing them as the reason we won’t win the league if we don’t. It’s like there‘s some sort of esoteric mathematical formula they are applying to the equation!

I’ve got an alternative mathematical formula to bring to the table. The team that gets the most points will win the league! If we don’t win it, then it’s because we didn’t accumulate enough points over the season. That’s the way a league season works.

Top teams always drop points they are expected not to. We even did so a couple of times in our Centurion season.

 

[supercity88]

Every season we have posters listing the games we were expected to win and didn’t, citing them as the reason we won’t win the league if we don’t. It’s like there‘s some sort of esoteric mathematical formula they are applying to the equation!

I’ve got an alternative mathematical formula to bring to the table. The team that gets the most points will win the league! If we don’t win it, then it’s because we didn’t accumulate enough points over the season. That’s the way a league season works.

Top teams always drop points they are expected not to. We even did so a couple of times in our Centurion season.

Considering we're favourites in almost every game we play, we should win them all. That would be fun!

I'm quite relaxed about the league. 4 in a row would be an amazing achievement but it wouldn't feel any greater for me than winning it as a one off. That's more for the players and the record books. I've been spoilt by our success and I almost need this to go to the wire to make it feel special. Last season was incredible, but it was part of a treble attempt and the FA Cup final being a derby and the CL final brought me much more joy.

Ultimately the documentary has also made me completely relax. We've got the best manager in the business and a group of players who will give it everything. When you think about the number of transitions we've been through, losing Kompany, Silva, Aguero, Yaya, Fernandinho and more recently Gundogan and Mahrez, the fact we're still right up there on all fronts is exceptional. We'll soon find out if they've got enough this season, starting tonight. But either way, what a time to be a blue.