It's not arrogance - we're heavy favourites based on what this team has done, and can do, when fit. Remember this team were top of the table, and high in the CL table, just six weeks ago. And while they weren't looking amazing, they did that without Rodri and De Bruyne.
We've had a bad run, but the results have been close in most games, and as a few of the stats sites have pointed out, the underlying play isn't as bad as results suggest. Remember 8 of the 12 were away from home, almost all against top ten sides. Of the four home games, two were against Spurs and United, who just happen to be the two teams with the best record at the Etihad against Pep. There are plenty of winnable games, where the team won't be pushed in the next couple of months.
The fact is that this is the worst defensive injury crisis we've had in the last decade, and an injury crisis tends to resolve over time - that's what happens in football. All those players haven't become crap overnight, and Pep hasn't suddenly been found out after nearly 1000 games as a manager.
As for Forest and Villa. Villa are currently heading for a points total less than last season, have been in mixed form, and it's unusual for a team to get a CL spot, and improve the next season. Prior to the game yesterday, Villa had gained just three points on City, in the seven games since we went on this poor run. Getting fourth place doesn't involve anything like the form we've shown over the last few years, where we've finished 20-30 points clear of fifth place.
As for Forest, they are in great form, and there are often teams from mid-table who do well for part of the season, but it would be remarkable if they were close to the CL spots at the end of the season.
I'm not guaranteeing we'll get a top four spot, but we are definitely not outsiders. If you genuinely believe that, there's a huge chunk of money waiting on the betting exchanges for you :)