The Title Race - 2024/25

[waspish]

Can't believe anyone would write us off now. Rodri's a big loss undoubtedly. But a point at St James' in the early kick off is a decent result. Especially when also missing De Bruyne and with Foden not yet firing and Gundo not yet finding his feet. It's early days, these results and performances happen for us at this point in the season.

If Arsenal had have blown Leicester apart and won 4-0 and beaten Brighton I'd be more concerned. They drew with Brighton which undermines the win at Spurs and Villa to some extent. And to let Leicester get back to 2-2 shows that whilst they've nailed their away performances they've still got the ability to drop points at home. No one is scared to go to the Emirates the way they are the Etihad or Anfield.

Think we be there or there about and it is to early to even make a judgement but 4 in a row was record so getting 5 in a row and now with a lot more top teams seems way harder to achieve!

 

[Cobwebcat]

Boring fact for you all…

If you compare the PL table after every round of matches to the finished table:

Rounds 1-9 get more like the finishing table after each game as you would expect. But…..

Rounds 10-34 plateau meaning that the table after round 10 is just as accurate as round 34.

Rounds 35-38 then start to look like the finishing table again with each round with 38 obviously being 100% accurate.

The moral of the story is look at the table after 10 games.It’s a really good guide at that point but not so much before.

 

[MCFC1993]

So the gap has shrunk from the start of the season. The model still favours us.

 

[alexmcity]

View attachment 133431

So the gap has shrunk from the start of the season. The model still favours us.

Bookies are much more relevant. They have skin in the game for they can lose money.

Guess this model is based almost entirely on past results, and doesn't take into account injuries, aging, fatigue, etc. A 5th title in a row would be a monumental achievement.

 

[Father Paul]

I think it is very competitive this season with us, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Villa, and even Spurs all in the mix. Teams will take points of each other. That may help us. The PL is fantastic these days.

Hold on wait a minute. I thought that we have ruined football?

 

[shemnel]

Bookies are much more relevant. They have skin in the game for they can lose money.

Guess this model is based almost entirely on past results, and doesn't take into account injuries, aging, fatigue, etc. A 5th title in a row would be a monumental achievement.

I don't think bookie prices are more relevant, because a bookie price can be severely influenced by weight of money (i.e. opinion) even if that money/opinion is severely misguided. A bookie needs to balance outgoings with the price, so it becomes slightly divorced from reality should someone decide they want to lump daft money on something silly.

I think Arsenal, City and Liverpool are all about joint myself, perhaps City and Arsenal slight favs, but that's just a gut feeling. I'm a bit surprised that model has us 2/5 favs this early in proceedings.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I'm not chucking in the towel, I'm just being realistic, Arsenal injuring Rodri (best midfielder in world football) has greatly enhanced their chances amd decreased ours, even the bookies see it that way. Ongoing concerns over fitness of KDB and Foden and zero backup for Haaland. We have a tiny squad and have invested poorly over last few transfer windows imho. Pep deserved better support from the board in the market. Our midfield and forward line Halaand aside has very little goals, producetive output against teams who in majority are all lining up with a low block. To top it off Arsenal look like they've gone up a notch or two certainly mentally and in terms of squad depth.

You say you are being realistic- does that mean when you said you couldn’t see us winning it last season you weren’t being realistic?

 

[alexmcity]

I don't think bookie prices are more relevant, because a bookie price can be severely influenced by weight of money (i.e. opinion) even if that money/opinion is severely misguided. A bookie needs to balance outgoings with the price, so it becomes slightly divorced from reality should someone decide they want to lump daft money on something silly.

I think Arsenal, City and Liverpool are all about joint myself, perhaps City and Arsenal slight favs, but that's just a gut feeling. I'm a bit surprised that model has us 2/5 favs this early in proceedings.

So, you agree much more with the bookies than with the model.

 

[St Helens Blue (Exiled)]

Lot of negativity about since Saturday lunchtime.
Not from me. Write us off at your peril after 5 games.

 

[KingGeorge]

View attachment 133431

So the gap has shrunk from the start of the season. The model still favours us.

I like looking at the Opta Analyst model as well. The thing about it is though I don't know how the model factors in the rodri injury. I'm not sure if injuries can be inputted into the model or not.