The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?

  • Total voters
    1,364
  • Poll closed .
blueparrot said:
At this point though those numbers can change very quickly. We beat Southamton by 3 and arsenal lose to liverpool by 2 or 3 not outlandish and second becomes 50/50.
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Indeed. If it's the OPTA table, it seem to be based on the percentage change of winning, so you can be predicted to get 1.5 or 2.1 pts from a game. With more games, that balances out, but the closer you get to the end of the season, the model can be all over the place.
 
If it was even close to predict a score then I am pretty sure bookmakers wouldn’t go close to taking bets.
Did anyone really expect us to beat Liverpool 3-1? Now before anyone says ah yes Liverpool were on the beach at this point in time so many other factors come into play.
All any club can do is concentrate on themselves and cut out the various equations being thrown out there.
One thing that seems to have slipped by is that come Monday Liverpool as we know will still be top but it’s a distinct possibility that 2 other clubs will be within one point of Arsenal in second and the fact that they are running on fumes really does muddy the water.
It would take ae monumental shift but who knows their current 67 points might not be enough to finish in the top 5
 
terraloon said:
If it was even close to predict a score then I am pretty sure bookmakers wouldn’t go close to taking bets.
Did anyone really expect us to beat Liverpool 3-1? Now before anyone says ah yes Liverpool were on the beach at this point in time so many other factors come into play.
All any club can do is concentrate on themselves and cut out the various equations being thrown out there.
One thing that seems to have slipped by is that come Monday Liverpool as we know will still be top but it’s a distinct possibility that 2 other clubs will be within one point of Arsenal in second and the fact that they are running on fumes really does muddy the water.
It would take ae monumental shift but who knows their current 67 points might not be enough to finish in the top 5
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Since the start of the year, Liverpool have lost 5 and drawn 2 out of 12 away games, so a good team like Chelsea were more than capable of taking the points, even without the changes/beach narrative.

Still, you could also easily not win another match all season, which must add to your excitement :) Even that team in 15th place that you play at home could be tricky - they've taken points away at Liverpool, Villa and City already this season.
 
I've got it all worked out...

2. Man City 71
3. N Forest 70
4. N'castle 69
5. Chelsea 69
6. Ast Villa 69
7. Arsenal 68

Villa win all of their games
Forest win every game including beating Chelsea
Chelsea win 2 of 3 including winning at Newcastle
Newcastle win 2 of 3 including winning at Arsenal
City beat Southampton/B'mouth, draw at Fulham

Arsenal lose at Liverpool, lose at home to Newcastle
can only manage a draw at S'hampton after Saliba red card on 25 mins.
 
Coljj said:
I've got it all worked out...

2. Man City 71
3. N Forest 70
4. N'castle 69
5. Chelsea 69
6. Ast Villa 69
7. Arsenal 68

Villa win all of their games
Forest win every game including beating Chelsea
Chelsea win 2 of 3 including winning at Newcastle
Newcastle win 2 of 3 including winning at Arsenal
City beat Southampton/B'mouth, draw at Fulham

Arsenal lose at Liverpool, then at home to Newcastle
can only manage a draw at S'hampton after Saliba red card on 25 mins.
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Apart from Arse losing at Southampton I think this is as good a guess as any.

I said a few days back 70 points is the line.

With it so close goal difference could be a big factor in the final table.
 
I thought Chelsea and Forest would miss out but Chelsea are sticking in there.

Based on the remaining games I think we'll have the chance to go 2nd and cement our CL place when we play Bournemouth (if we beat Southampton).

Final day I think Newcastle, Villa, Chelsea and Forest will all still have a chance of the final two spots. Newcastle will win and book theirs. The final spot will come down to whether Forest or Chelsea win their game with a draw opening the door to Villa.

I think we'll have the chance to finish above Arsenal if we win our final three. Arsenal will lose at Anfield, draw with Newcastle and beat Southampton.
 
City finishing second this year would go down as one of the most hilarious, but pointless achievements of the Pep era. How it's even on the cards is a mystery. We've been absolutely crap and still could have a better season than 18 other clubs!
 
supercity88 said:
I thought Chelsea and Forest would miss out but Chelsea are sticking in there.

Based on the remaining games I think we'll have the chance to go 2nd and cement our CL place when we play Bournemouth (if we beat Southampton).

Final day I think Newcastle, Villa, Chelsea and Forest will all still have a chance of the final two spots. Newcastle will win and book theirs. The final spot will come down to whether Forest or Chelsea win their game with a draw opening the door to Villa.

I think we'll have the chance to finish above Arsenal if we win our final three. Arsenal will lose at Anfield, draw with Newcastle and beat Southampton.
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I thought Chelsea and Forest would fall by the wayside but they seem to be hanging on. Who knows what the outcome will be?
 
its fucking joke that two possible hard games for Chelsea became guaranteed 3 points each due to dippers dont give a shit and rags also look out for EL from now on and dont give a shit.

this is a big shift, had they played these two home fixtures 2-3 moths ago they probably would have not won both easily. and thats all it takes given how close the final points will be end of 3 rounds.

its not gonna cost us much, but it is deffo costing a lot for Villa or Forest imo or Barcodes.
 
KS55 said:
I thought Chelsea and Forest would fall by the wayside but they seem to be hanging on. Who knows what the outcome will be?
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So did I, but they (Chelsea) stole a win in injury time v Fulham… held on for a fortunate win v Everton… and comfortably beat Liverpool. 3 wins on the bash have put them in a good position, fair play to them.
 
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Damanino said:
its fucking joke that two possible hard games for Chelsea became guaranteed 3 points each due to dippers dont give a shit and rags also look out for EL from now on and dont give a shit.

this is a big shift, had they played these two home fixtures 2-3 moths ago they probably would have not won both easily. and thats all it takes given how close the final points will be end of 3 rounds.

its not gonna cost us much, but it is deffo costing a lot for Villa or Forest imo or Barcodes.
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Villa play Spurs pre-Europa League final and the rags after it so they won't mind either!
 
M18CTID said:
That still wasn’t a bad team that Slot put out. The issue was probably more down to Liverpool players being on the lash all week.

Difficult to know what to expect from the Arsenal game. Liverpool will want to put on a show in front of their own fans but now the title is won, their intensity could easily be a bit off. That said, if Arsenal go out of the CL tomorrow they could be demoralised.
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A draw could be just as good tbf. They play Newcastle next, drop points there and it is wide open for 2nd.
 
My day’s not been wasted. Working out likely results of last 3 rounds of games involving the top 7 based entirely on current position - i.e. Liverpool get 3 wins out of 3, as do City and Villa who both play teams 8th and below, and assuming every win is 1-0, and assuming a goalless draw between Chelsea and Newcastle, the final standings are:

1. Liverpool 91pts, GD +49
2. Arsenal 73pts, GD +34
3. City 73 pts, GD +27
4. Chelsea 70 pts, GD +23
5. Villa 69 pts, GD +9
6. Newcastle 67 pts, GD +21
7. Forest 67 pts, GD +13

Can challenge a lot of those assumptions: Liverpool drop-off/demotivation, making 3/3 highly unlikely; Villa and Chelsea both play the Scum, rendering 1-0 victories for both a little underpriced; Arsenal not more likely winners over Newcastle just because 2nd playing 4th; potential for mad stuff on the final day (Southampton needing a point to beat the Worst Ever prize, against perennial chokers Woolwich Exiles, anyone?)…

But City beating Southampton and Bournemouth, and Arsenal losing to Liverpool and Newcastle, are a perfectly likely set of results. Which means going into the final day, City are 2nd on 70pts, and Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea and Forest are all on 67. City not safe, unless we’ve absolutely twatted Southampton. Arsenal watching the shadows breaking over their heads…

Bet you Sky will want to show Liverpool v Palace uninterrupted, though.
 
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