The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

[johnny crossan]

Forest can't overtake us, goal difference too big, and they're playing Chelsea anyway, so one of them has to finish below.

Odds of the three teams below winning and us losing are very slim. Maybe chuck a tenner on it...

It only needs three to overtake us and escaping defeat at Fulham is not going to be easy. Ask Pep.

 

[johnny crossan]

As others have said, if you think this is a serious possibility then get yourself to the bookies. You'll get 25-1

You and the others need to get real then. Crazy to think we'll breeze past another PL club away - have you forgetton Southampton so soon? And we'll be without Kova again.

 

[Georgian Maestro]

You and the others need to get real then. Crazy to think we'll breeze past another PL club away - have you forgotton Southampton so soon - and we'll be without Kova again.

If you think the market has misjudged this then put a bet on. You'll make a killing.

 

[wattle]

You and the others need to get real then. Crazy to think we'll breeze past another PL club away - have you forgetton Southampton so soon? And we'll be without Kova again.

If we get the same result as Southampton we’ll qualify whatever

 

[Axel Freed]

You and the others need to get real then. Crazy to think we'll breeze past another PL club away - have you forgetton Southampton so soon? And we'll be without Kova again.

I for one haven’t forgotten about our DISGUSTING performance at Soton

The ARROGANCE and LAZINESS of our players that day has probably cost us a top 5 finish because I can’t see us getting anything at Craven Cottage whereas I fully expect all our rivals to win their games

 

[jimharri]

Forest can't overtake us, goal difference too big, and they're playing Chelsea anyway, so one of them has to finish below.

Odds of the three teams below winning and us losing are very slim. Maybe chuck a tenner on it...

Yeah, next to no chance of Villa, Newcastle and Chelsea all winning. And that'd be with us losing at Fulham. But I trust Pep to send the team out with the right attitude on sunday anyway. Gonzalez in for Kovacic?

 

[pee dubya]

It only needs three to overtake us and escaping defeat at Fulham is not going to be easy. Ask Pep.

No-one is saying it can't happen, but the other three teams have all won in the same game week once this season. We have to lose on top of that.

Possible yes, but factually unlikely.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Opta reckons 96.8% - ridiculous, a significant chance we get nothing at the cottage and the other three all win and overtake us.

But that's just how independent probabilities work. If you have 4 events stacking and each are 50% likely, the chances of them all happening at once is only 6%. This isn't that much different.

The odds Opta are working on are:
Fulham have a 21% chance of beating us - feels about right
Newcastle 67% chance of winning - literally as strong as odds get in the PL, Liverpool have weaker odds
Villa 51% chance of beating United
Chelsea 43% chance of beating Forest

I'd love to know what odds you would give each of these fixtures that will make the maths so drastically different?

 

[pee dubya]

Yeah, next to no chance of Villa, Newcastle and Chelsea all winning. And that'd be with us losing at Fulham. But I trust Pep to send the team out with the right attitude on sunday anyway. Gonzalez in for Kovacic?

Kovacic will be a big miss, I hope that's the change but honestly I have no clue what Pep will do.

 

[johnny crossan]

But that's just how independent probabilities work. If you have 4 events stacking and each are 50% likely, the chances of them all happening at once is only 6%. This isn't that much different.

The odds Opta are working on are:
Fulham have a 21% chance of beating us - feels about right
Newcastle 67% chance of winning - literally as strong as odds get in the PL, Liverpool have weaker odds
Villa 51% chance of beating United
Chelsea 43% chance of beating Forest

I'd love to know what odds you would give each of these fixtures that will make the maths so drastically different?

You should reread "Two Dogmas of Empiricism" by Willard Van Orman Quine to see the flaw in that reasoning ;-)

 

[Cobwebcat]

You and the others need to get real then. Crazy to think we'll breeze past another PL club away - have you forgetton Southampton so soon? And we'll be without Kova again.

To be fair Fulham have lost 4 of their last 6 games in the PL.

We can be happy tonight at least.

 

[johnny crossan]

To be fair Fulham have lost 4 of their last 6 games in the PL.

We can be happy tonight at least.

They just beat Brentford away.

 

[silvathechihuahua]

I for one haven’t forgotten about our DISGUSTING performance at Soton

The ARROGANCE and LAZINESS of our players that day has probably cost us a top 5 finish because I can’t see us getting anything at Craven Cottage whereas I fully expect all our rivals to win their games

Are you for real?

 

[Manchester33]

I for one haven’t forgotten about our DISGUSTING performance at Soton

The ARROGANCE and LAZINESS of our players that day has probably cost us a top 5 finish because I can’t see us getting anything at Craven Cottage whereas I fully expect all our rivals to win their games

That’s the spirit!

 

[p.taker]

96.8% chance now according to Opta.

100% according to Aguuuuueeeeerrrrroooooo

 

[p.taker]

I for one haven’t forgotten about our DISGUSTING performance at Soton

The ARROGANCE and LAZINESS of our players that day has probably cost us a top 5 finish because I can’t see us getting anything at Craven Cottage whereas I fully expect all our rivals to win their games

Little obvious, but decent effort

 

[OntarioBlue]

Yeah, next to no chance of Villa, Newcastle and Chelsea all winning. And that'd be with us losing at Fulham. But I trust Pep to send the team out with the right attitude on sunday anyway. Gonzalez in for Kovacic?

I think Rodri may start. He looked a bit nervous at first then he went off on one of his runs with the ball and you could see he is back.

 

[Cobwebcat]

They just beat Brentford away.

United are in the Europa Final. Brighton just beat Liverpool. Lots of weird things happen.

Seriously you could get around 25/1. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen but say you think there is even a 10% chance we won’t qualify it’s a bet you should take. I think the bookies have it about right.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

You should reread "Two Dogmas of Empiricism" by Willard Van Orman Quine to see the flaw in that reasoning ;-)

Okay, but I’m just explaining Opta’s calculation here - which is what you were criticising, not the validity of the epistemological basis of all statistics.

 

[chesterbells]

As others have said, if you think this is a serious possibility then get yourself to the bookies. You'll get 25-1

Don’t worry mate, I’ll be all over it tomorrow.