The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?


  • Total voters
    1,364
  • Poll closed .
We did what was expected tonight but it doesn’t even come close to making up for the Soton debacle. We don’t deserve top 5 after that awful display even if we win all our remaining games which we won’t because everyone has cottoned on to how to beat us
I just hope we don’t live to regret conceding that goal near the end.
 
Forest win or draw seals it no matter what

Forests home record is decent, Chelsea's away isn't great.

Yep, we're 1/25 on Betfair. The odds don't lie and it would be the biggest last day upset for many years if we don't make top five.

Would quite like to see Villa beat the rags though, and Spuds get a point at home to Brighton, rags finishing 17th would be even funnier than the Spuds finishing 17th.
 
I bet Chelsea, Forest, Villa, Barcodes hated this game hahaha
two of them will suck ass Sunday evening.

its still not 100% for us but very close. I want Chelsea to fail it.

is Villa 100% in CL if they win?
 
I just hope we don’t live to regret conceding that goal near the end.
Won't happen. I think the only way that we don't make top five because of goal difference would mean we'd drawn at Fulham, which means Forest can't catch us. Villa would have to put 17 goals past the rags, and although they are shit, they aren't quite that shit.
 
We did what was expected tonight but it doesn’t even come close to making up for the Soton debacle. We don’t deserve top 5 after that awful display even if we win all our remaining games which we won’t because everyone has cottoned on to how to beat us
you finnish where you deserve to finnish so if were 5th,4th or 3rd we deserve it
 
I bet Chelsea, Forest, Villa, Barcodes hated this game hahaha
two of them will suck ass Sunday evening.

its still not 100% for us but very close. I want Chelsea to fail it.

is Villa 100% in CL if they win?
No. They’ll lose out on goal difference if Newcastle, Chelsea and we win (or draw).
 

A bit of back of envelope maths...

If:
Arsenal manage to prevent Newcastle winning here
We manage to beat Bournemouth on Tuesday

That means to not qualify, all four games on the final day would need to go perfectly against us, which based on current odds has only about a ~3% chance of happening.

Looks like my back of envelope maths is pretty good...
 
Opta reckons 96.8% - ridiculous, a significant chance we get nothing at the cottage and three out of the other four below win and overtake us.
Forest can't overtake us, goal difference too big, and they're playing Chelsea anyway, so one of them has to finish below.

Odds of the three teams below winning and us losing are very slim. Maybe chuck a tenner on it...
 

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