This guy determined we will fail FFPR

[I'm no cynic but...]

There seems to be a good dose fag packet guestimation and wishful thinking from our critics on this thread. I used to think I was pretty good at calculating the profitability of companies and I would delve into company annual and interim statements for the purpose of investing in them, and I did this as a sideline for over 30 years. Sometimes I was successful, other times I wasn't, but overall I profited enough to retire early and to move up to this beautiful county. But the lesson I really learned was that accounts were often meaningless, except in tracing a change of trend. In the end, I just worked with charts on the basis that insiders knew what was happening within a company rather than others who were looking in from the outside. As I say, I made my money this way, and the only lesson I could derive from the world of accountancy was that figures never lie, but liers certainly knew how to work the figures.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

This is why infrastucture investment makes so much sense. We get to reap the rewards (income resulting from the investment), without having to pay anything for it (as far as FFP is concerned).

Apparently we need a specialist contractor to work on the site and this guy commands a huge rate. Something like £250k a week. Seems he's currently working in Spain. Goes by the name of Lee Massey I think.

Seriously, I'm assuming all the building work done on the Campus site will be capitalised and therefore come through via depreciation. So if we spend £100m and the useful life of the asset is 50 years, we can write off £2m a year, which is an allowable expense under FFP.

But the treatment of remediation work done on the Campus & collar site is less clear. On theory, I think we can write all of this off when incurred. So if £10m of the £100m was for remediation of contaminated land, we could possibly claim the £10m all at once and treat it as an allowable expense for FFP.

In practice I don't think it makes a difference as charging the full amount to the P&L would simply increase the loss and we'd just add back the larger charge.

 

[Lancet Fluke]

the first thread i have actually learned from.

You didn't read the cellar thread about sit down pissing then?

 

[cibaman]

Predicting FFP outcomes inevitably relies on assumptions because much of the information isn't in the public domain. PB and the Swiss bloke seem to recognise that and caveat many of their comments and predictions accordingly. I found this other fella irritating because he wrote with an absolute certainty that he couldn't possibly possess. It particularly annoyed me the way he seemed to insist that the club was wrong about the £80m on player contracts and he was right. Its all in the choice of words I suppose.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Predicting FFP outcomes inevitably relies on assumptions because much of the information isn't in the public domain. PB and the Swiss bloke seem to recognise that and caveat many of their comments and predictions accordingly. I found this other fella irritating because he wrote with an absolute certainty that he couldn't possibly possess. It particularly annoyed me the way he seemed to insist that the club was wrong about the £80m on player contracts and he was right. Its all in the choice of words I suppose.

To be fair, Swiss Ramble and me both couldn't see how they got to £80m but now we know so it makes sense suddenly. Clearly the club were on top of it though, which is all that counts.

I'm assuming we'll finally see the accounts this week. As I said, I think with any loss of £55m or less that we're home and dry and that should be the last time we have to worry about FFP for the foreseeable future.

 

[aguero93:20]

Really interesting interchange with Swiss Ramble.

Chaps, you will be pleased to here that I have updated the piece and the calculator.

It is now set at 'best case for City' scenario.

I have removed all the UEFA adjustments - should have done that in the first place. Just put them in if you think they will happen. And wages are now at £80m

The magic figure is £ £497740 (about £50m give or take).

I really didn't know that UEFA's RPT rules were a cut and paste from an accounting standard - genuinely thought they had carefully pulled them together - thanks to PB for that.

Interesting to see that Swiss Ramble think that, although Bridge/Santa Cruz could possibly be adjusted he thinks City can justify it and the £13m wont't be considered to be 'taking the mick'.

If I read him correctly, he seems to think that UEFA could adjust for Etihad the RPT but won't. That has always been my position on this board.

To make things easy, I have taken out the £12.8 RPT adjustment for Intellectual Property and Know How. The CFCB could contest that of course (some or all). Only add it in if you think they will (so you probably won't).

As you know it has always been my position that I thought City would fail the test. I still think that but understand that EVERYONE on the board thinks City will pass and I am in minority of one. I don't know of one person outside Twitter or Forums that has stuck their head up and said the numbers don't work. The title of this thread says is fairly well - this guy thinks City will fail FFP (still)

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/latest-news/all-eyes-on-manchester-city-s-ffp-results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/late ... fp-results</a>

you better show your face back here after we pass (clearly or on the foreseeable break even clause)and finally admit you're wrong.

 

[OB1]

This is why infrastucture investment makes so much sense. We get to reap the rewards (income resulting from the investment), without having to pay anything for it (as far as FFP is concerned).

Apparently we need a specialist contractor to work on the site and this guy commands a huge rate. Something like £250k a week. Seems he's currently working in Spain. Goes by the name of Lee Massey I think.

Seriously, I'm assuming all the building work done on the Campus site will be capitalised and therefore come through via depreciation. So if we spend £100m and the useful life of the asset is 50 years, we can write off £2m a year, which is an allowable expense under FFP.

But the treatment of remediation work done on the Campus & collar site is less clear. On theory, I think we can write all of this off when incurred. So if £10m of the £100m was for remediation of contaminated land, we could possibly claim the £10m all at once and treat it as an allowable expense for FFP.

In practice I don't think it makes a difference as charging the full amount to the P&L would simply increase the loss and we'd just add back the larger charge.

PB,

You want to be careful on the accounting here: the cost of site preparation and clearance is specifically noted in FRS 15 as an example of a directly attributable cost of a tangible fixed asset and would therefore be capitalised. Makes sod all difference to FFP, as you mention.

As to writing off all the building costs over the same useful life, that really does depend on what you exactly mean by building costs.

 

[Oohvonkyvonky]

im waiting in the wings here if you decide to bring the big guns out, i have lots of words saved up that probably will end the thread so just watching for the time being

Just stay in the wings Corky. Let these lads earn some bluemoon brownie points.

PS does one of the words begin with C?

 

[Oohvonkyvonky]

im waiting in the wings here if you decide to bring the big guns out, i have lots of words saved up that probably will end the thread so just watching for the time being

Just stay in the wings Corky. Let these lads earn some bluemoon brownie points.

PS does one of the words begin with C?

yes...yes it does

Ahhh just I suspected.

Save it for ffplay... he should be back after the accounts have been revealed.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

im waiting in the wings here if you decide to bring the big guns out, i have lots of words saved up that probably will end the thread so just watching for the time being

Just stay in the wings Corky. Let these lads earn some bluemoon brownie points.

PS does one of the words begin with C?

yes...yes it does

Let me guess.

Consolidation? Currency fluctuations? Current Assets?