US Politics Thread

Trevor Morley's Tache said:
He's courting the Trump base with his anti-woke crusade. He clearly thinks it's a winning strategy.
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I specifically thought the thing to do was to just run as an old school conservative who isn't going to jail/under indictment. I assumed Trump would attack him but DeSantis would run the Biden playbook of ignoring him. Then DeSantis does the total opposite -- tries to out-Trump Trump, turning off both hard-line cult members AND any moderates leaving only a small sliver of people who'd support him, which is then in turn going to be eaten away by the other non-Trump conservatives to @BlueMoonAcrossThePond 's point.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
I specifically thought the thing to do was to just run as an old school conservative who isn't going to jail/under indictment. I assumed Trump would attack him but DeSantis would run the Biden playbook of ignoring him. Then DeSantis does the total opposite -- tries to out-Trump Trump, turning off both hard-line cult members AND any moderates leaving only a small sliver of people who'd support him, which is then in turn going to be eaten away by the other non-Trump conservatives to @BlueMoonAcrossThePond 's point.
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Same applies to these stunts. Similar to the Tories in the UK, only the most rabid of mouth breathers don’t find these stunts repulsive. I don’t know how doing them look different to Trump in a general…

 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
For months running I've consistently expressed the opinion that this precise scenario would unfold - namely that Trump will win the Republican nomination for President by a landslide. Why? Because of the factors you mentioned which have long since been known.

Trump has a locked-in 30% or so of Republicans who will vote for him no matter what;
The Republican field will be crowded - diluting the anti-Trump vote;
Legal proceedings against Trump will bolster his popularity among some Republicans, further increasing his edge over contenders.
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I've also long stated that this is excellent news for Democrats. Trump is such a divisive a figure - and growing even more so - that he's very unlikely to win election to the Presidency. Furthermore, his mere presence on the ticket will detract from downstream Republican chances.
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Finally, a more recent prediction of mine, is that Democrats will benefit from a huge Blue Wave in 2024. I think that voters are fed up with the divisive "own the Dems" rhetoric of the MAGA party. Another big factor is that the overturn of Roe by the MAGA Supreme Court is enormously unpopular. Finally, Republicunts are on the wrong side of every single social issue I can think of: gun control, LGBTQ rights, abortion, vaccination, climate change...

The only way I foresee that a huge Blue Wave fails to manifest in 2024 is that the economy worsens substantially and that Republicans are able to capitalize on this.
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Spot on. Trump will breeze the GOP nomination but overall the majority of independents, women, college educated, blacks, Millenials and Gen-Z will never vote for him in a presidential election with a much wider electorate. Only billionaires, fascists, racists, traitors, the poorly educated Trump loves so much and fucked in the head hillbillies and trailer trash will vote for him.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
For months running I've consistently expressed the opinion that this precise scenario would unfold - namely that Trump will win the Republican nomination for President by a landslide. Why? Because of the factors you mentioned which have long since been known.

Trump has a locked-in 30% or so of Republicans who will vote for him no matter what;
The Republican field will be crowded - diluting the anti-Trump vote;
Legal proceedings against Trump will bolster his popularity among some Republicans, further increasing his edge over contenders.
===
I've also long stated that this is excellent news for Democrats. Trump is such a divisive a figure - and growing even more so - that he's very unlikely to win election to the Presidency. Furthermore, his mere presence on the ticket will detract from downstream Republican chances.
====
Finally, a more recent prediction of mine, is that Democrats will benefit from a huge Blue Wave in 2024. I think that voters are fed up with the divisive "own the Dems" rhetoric of the MAGA party. Another big factor is that the overturn of Roe by the MAGA Supreme Court is enormously unpopular. Finally, Republicunts are on the wrong side of every single social issue I can think of: gun control, LGBTQ rights, abortion, vaccination, climate change...

The only way I foresee that a huge Blue Wave fails to manifest in 2024 is that the economy worsens substantially and that Republicans are able to capitalize on this.
Click to expand...
All very true. But don't underestimate the impact of fairly minor events. Fir example that little fall Biden had the other day. If he has a health scare in the run in then that could shift the dial.

That said I expect Trump to go down for something over the next year. So God knows what shape his campaign will be in if that is the case.
 
BayernMan said:
Unfortunately the Hispanic community is very fragmented in the United States. Cuban American immigrants tend to be whiter and more conservative than their counterparts and vote accordingly.
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I have some distant Cuban florida relatives (by marriage). They are hyper Catholic. It would not surprise me if they voted Republican.
 
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