US Politics Thread

[laserblue]

Death by cheeseburger overdose incoming....

On the toilet.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Gross.

 

[SWP's back]

Biden expected to win tonights South Carolina primary.

Be interesting to see the turnout and demographic of voters that turn out

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

If there’s one theme I’ve noticed with Biden it’s that he does seem to consistently outperform the layman’s expectations at the ballot box. Call it a shy Biden effect maybe, but I think lots of less vocal people tend to vote for him as a stable/status quo candidate and a moderating influence. I think he’ll always get a few points extra from the Don’t Knows because he’s a safe choice.

I saw this at the 2020 primaries (when I personally wanted to see a more progressive candidate), the 2020 election and now we’re starting to see it in this cycle as well.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

If there’s one theme I’ve noticed with Biden it’s that he does seem to consistently outperform the layman’s expectations at the ballot box. Call it a shy Biden effect maybe, but I think lots of less vocal people tend to vote for him as a stable/status quo candidate and a moderating influence. I think he’ll always get a few points extra from the Don’t Knows because he’s a safe choice.

I saw this at the 2020 primaries (when I personally wanted to see a more progressive candidate), the 2020 election and now we’re starting to see it in this cycle as well.

Agree. Its far to early to look at pooling data. Even in the run in it tends to be way out and the Dems generally do well in the only votes that count. If there is a quiet confidence about the dems then there is absolutely a sense of chaos and incompetence about the GOP and no signs of that changing any time soon.

 

[SWP's back]

If there’s one theme I’ve noticed with Biden it’s that he does seem to consistently outperform the layman’s expectations at the ballot box. Call it a shy Biden effect maybe, but I think lots of less vocal people tend to vote for him as a stable/status quo candidate and a moderating influence. I think he’ll always get a few points extra from the Don’t Knows because he’s a safe choice.

I saw this at the 2020 primaries (when I personally wanted to see a more progressive candidate), the 2020 election and now we’re starting to see it in this cycle as well.

Yep and without tooting my own horn, I’ve been steadfast on him (well his performances at the ballot box) since 2019 and have been correct every time. Especially relevant in the Trump thread where it appears 90% think Trump is a dead cert.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Would Trump instigate a "civil war" on the Texas border just before an election?

Looking the the situation down there it looks like MAGA's last stand.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Yep and without tooting my own horn, I’ve been steadfast on him (well his performances at the ballot box) since 2019 and have been correct every time. Especially relevant in the Trump thread where it appears 90% think Trump is a dead cert.

I’ve also said a few times in that thread that I don’t see Trump’s path to victory. The maths just doesn’t math for me. Covid deaths, more Gen Z voters, increased polarisation. He isn’t getting new votes from anywhere and in some places demographics alone will see him get substantially less.

His only way of winning is to suppress turnout but his very presence on the ballot significantly motivates the opposite. He will lose and by 2028 Texas will be a blue state - and then the GOP are staring down the barrel of decades out of power and a significant leftward swing in the Overton window.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Would Trump instigate a "civil war" on the Texas border just before an election?

Looking the the situation down there it looks like MAGA's last stand.

Texas is an interesting place politically. It's been GOP run for years and it's top state politicians have huge corruption issues. They really don't have a good story to tell.

The demographics are moving rapidly away from them. It's a growing state with lots of new businesses moving in and a lot of population spreading out of the big cities. I think it had a 45 / 55 split for Trump last time out but its a gap that has been narrowing for years. It used to be rock solid Red but the dems have a chance.

 

[grunge]

So a major bipartisan deal is ready to vote on, billions for boarder, money for Ukraine, Isreal, Taiwan etc etc, all addressed.


the GOP in the house look to be voting against it. and somehow are banking on being able to sell to there base that the emergency at the boarder will get fixed without the money for the emergency at the boarder they are banging the drum over?