US Politics Thread | Biden withdraws from Presidential election race

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Polls are all over the place.
www.newsweek.com

Latest presidential polls ring alarm bells for Joe Biden

New polling shows Donald Trump leading Joe Biden in key swing states less than 10 months ahead of a hypothetical rematch.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com

Much will change prior to election day. If Trump is convicted of federal felony offenses related to the Jan 6th insurrection, I think that Biden is a lock. Absent such, it's going to be close.
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I think the gap will be larger than 2020. Can’t see how Trump would gain more votes than four years ago in demographics alone, whatever the result of his court cases.
 
SWP's back said:
I think the gap will be larger than 2020. Can’t see how Trump would gain more votes than four years ago in demographics alone, whatever the result of his court cases.
Click to expand...
I hope you're correct.

Factors possibly in favor of a better Trump showing in 2024 than in 2020...
* He's much more well known. This turns away many voters, but the fringe, stereotypical, hateful white guy, now certainly knows about Trump and is fired up to vote.
* He's a supposed victim. All the cases against Trump paint him as a victim of the Left. This is going to fire up his base - and some heretofore neutrals - to get out and vote for MAGA.
* His election team is seasoned and has a much, much better ground game. In 2020 his election team was far less capable than it is in 2024.
* He's now running, essentially, as the Republican incumbent.
* The proliferation of Right wing propaganda outlets operating under the guise of "news" means that in 2024, the far right echo chamber is far more difficult to breach than it was in 2020.

Numerous other factors argue against Trump and - IMO - when taken as a whole - are slightly more convincing than the factors in favor of him.

Still... it's likely going to be very close and events not presently anticipated may sway the election outcome one way or another. For example, I think that Hillary would have been our 45th President, if not for fucking Comey.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I hope you're correct.

Factors possibly in favor of a better Trump showing in 2024 than in 2020...
* He's much more well known. This turns away many voters, but the fringe, stereotypical, hateful white guy, now certainly knows about Trump and is fired up to vote.
* He's a supposed victim. All the cases against Trump paint him as a victim of the Left. This is going to fire up his base - and some heretofore neutrals - to get out and vote for MAGA.
* His election team is seasoned and has a much, much better ground game. In 2020 his election team was far less capable than it is in 2024.
* He's now running, essentially, as the Republican incumbent.
* The proliferation of Right wing propaganda outlets operating under the guise of "news" means that in 2024, the far right echo chamber is far more difficult to breach than it was in 2020.

Numerous other factors argue against Trump and - IMO - when taken as a whole - are slightly more convincing than the factors I cited above.

Still... it's likely going to be very close and factors not presently anticipated may sway the election outcome one way or another. For example, I think that Hillary would have been our 45th President, if not for fucking Comey.
Click to expand...
I won't pretend to know who is the favourite, but you mentioned the fringe hateful white guy. The very fact that this demographic is a fringe gives me some hope that decency will prevail.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I hope you're correct.

Factors possibly in favor of a better Trump showing in 2024 than in 2020...
* He's much more well known. This turns away many voters, but the fringe, stereotypical, hateful white guy, now certainly knows about Trump and is fired up to vote.
* He's a supposed victim. All the cases against Trump paint him as a victim of the Left. This is going to fire up his base - and some heretofore neutrals - to get out and vote for MAGA.
* His election team is seasoned and has a much, much better ground game. In 2020 his election team was far less capable than it is in 2024.
* He's now running, essentially, as the Republican incumbent.
* The proliferation of Right wing propaganda outlets operating under the guise of "news" means that in 2024, the far right echo chamber is far more difficult to breach than it was in 2020.

Numerous other factors argue against Trump and - IMO - when taken as a whole - are slightly more convincing than the factors in favor of him.

Still... it's likely going to be very close and events not presently anticipated may sway the election outcome one way or another. For example, I think that Hillary would have been our 45th President, if not for fucking Comey.
Click to expand...
In my opinion, I don't think there's a lot of evidence for any of your points except number 4, which is ipso facto.

His "base" is going to be there, period. Where is the evidence being painted as a victim of the left is more powerful than the perception of his criminality (not to mention his treason) turning more neutrals off?

I have no idea where the idea that his "ground game" is better comes from -- look at his lawyers FFS. Experienced GOP electoral operatives and professionals of all types are walking away or refuse to work with him. Donors too.

The far right echo chamber was always hard to penetrate -- but if anything, the resistance outside it is stronger -- to wit, where are the lunatics who used to post in 2020 on this very thread?

I don't disagree that it will be close though. I tend to agree that -- all else equal which it absolutely may not be -- @SWP's back is right that the margin could be larger than 2020.
 
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