US Politics Thread

This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.

I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.

If she’s looking beyond Trump and prospects for 2028 onward it makes sense not to endorse and market herself as the one who didn’t embrace the Trump stink.

I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
 
That's western fallacy...
Chinese government or CCP, they are the most moderate, or compromise role in the country.
The logic is different. Because you don't need to fight for an election, your job is to keep the country going foward.
So you need to unite all kinds of people. You must stay in the middle.
If you are far(extreme) right or left , they (the government) will make you shut up. You will disappear from public view.
And in our Chinese view, that's good, they should do it like that. If the government don't do their job, public will feel angry.
But west media call it "censorship" "people missing", that's BS.
Oh do fuck off you myopic troll.
 
If she’s looking beyond Trump and prospects for 2028 onward it makes sense not to endorse and market herself as the one who didn’t embrace the Trump stink.

I wouldn’t bet on it, though.

Her problem is that while the MAGA crowd are "not your dad's republicans" etc., if you actually look at the 60m people who will vote for Trump, 85% of them would have voted for George Bush in 2004, and McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012.

So when making herself Trump's enemy, she's pissing off most of the republican 2028 voters, and while they might move away from Trumpism and put the red caps away, they're still going to remember how much they hate Nikki Haley.
 
Looks like a bit of a shit show to be honest. The supposed incumbent has now lost two primaries, can you imagine the furore if that happened to Biden? Anyway, I've summarised polling performance below. Polls are taken from 538, results from NYT. If there were only two polls in a state I didn't average them but give a range.

Summary:
Trump polling underestimated in two states
Polling broadly accurate in two states
Trump polling overestimated in eight states

The average discrepancy for the evening is Trump overestimated by 10 points (highest variance from polling was 34pp). The median margin discrepancy is 10.5.

_____

In no particular order:

Alabama (polling): Trump 76-87 - 12-16 Haley (Margin 60-75) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Alabama (result): Trump 83 - 13 Haley (Margin 70) - accurate

Minnesota (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64) - only one poll done
Minnesota (result): Trump 69 - 29 Haley (Margin 40) - Trump overestimated by 24

North Carolina (polling): Trump 69 - 23 Haley (Margin 46)
North Carolina (result): Trump 74 - 23 Haley (Margin 51) - Trump underestimated by 5

Oklahoma (polling): Trump 88 - 11 Haley (Margin 77)
Oklahoma (result): Trump 82 - 16 Haley (Margin 66) - Trump overestimated by 11

Tennessee (polling): Trump 84 - 15 Haley (Margin 69)
Tennessee (result): Trump 77 - 19 Haley (Margin 58) - Trump overestimated by 11

Vermont (polling): Trump 61 - 31 Haley (Margin 30) - only one poll done
Vermont (result): Trump 46 - 50 Haley (Margin -4) - Trump overestimated by 34

Virginia (polling): Trump 66 - 17 Haley (Margin 49)
Virginia (result): Trump 63 - 35 Haley (Margin 28) - Trump overestimated by 21

Arkansas (polling): No recent polling
Arkansas (result): Trump 77 - 18 Haley (Margin 59)

Texas (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64)
Texas (result): Trump 78 - 17 Haley (Margin 59) - Trump overestimated by 5

Massachusetts (polling): Trump 67 - 29 Haley (Margin 37)
Massachusetts (result): Trump 60 - 37 Haley (Margin 23) - Trump overestimated by 14

Maine (polling): Trump 66-77 - 19-24 Haley (Margin 42-53) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Maine (result): Trump 72 - 26 Haley (Margin 46) - accurate

Colorado (polling): No recent polling
Colorado (result): Trump 63 - 34 Haley (Margin 29)

Utah (polling): Trump 49 - 22 Haley (Margin 27) - Note this poll was done in Jan and included DeSantis on 13
Utah (result): Trump 58 - 41 Haley (Margin 17) - This one's not done counting but Trump overestimated by 10

California (polling): Trump 76 - 18 Haley (Margin 58)
California (result): Trump 78 - 18 Haley (Margin 60) - Trump underestimated by 2
I mean most polls didn't account for the fact that many of these primaries were "open" and allowed unaffiliated independents and democrats to vote in them, such as Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts and so on, which explains the discrepancy here.
 
I mean most polls didn't account for the fact that many of these primaries were "open" and allowed unaffiliated independents and democrats to vote in them, such as Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts and so on, which explains the discrepancy here.
Course it does Cletus.
 

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.