US Politics Thread

[Scottyboi]

Into her Emily.

 

[BobKowalski]

Looks like a bit of a shit show to be honest. The supposed incumbent has now lost two primaries, can you imagine the furore if that happened to Biden? Anyway, I've summarised polling performance below. Polls are taken from 538, results from NYT. If there were only two polls in a state I didn't average them but give a range.

Summary:
Trump polling underestimated in two states
Polling broadly accurate in two states
Trump polling overestimated in eight states

The average discrepancy for the evening is Trump overestimated by 10 points (highest variance from polling was 34pp). The median margin discrepancy is 10.5.

_____

In no particular order:

Alabama (polling): Trump 76-87 - 12-16 Haley (Margin 60-75) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Alabama (result): Trump 83 - 13 Haley (Margin 70) - accurate

Minnesota (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64) - only one poll done
Minnesota (result): Trump 69 - 29 Haley (Margin 40) - Trump overestimated by 24

North Carolina (polling): Trump 69 - 23 Haley (Margin 46)
North Carolina (result): Trump 74 - 23 Haley (Margin 51) - Trump underestimated by 5

Oklahoma (polling): Trump 88 - 11 Haley (Margin 77)
Oklahoma (result): Trump 82 - 16 Haley (Margin 66) - Trump overestimated by 11

Tennessee (polling): Trump 84 - 15 Haley (Margin 69)
Tennessee (result): Trump 77 - 19 Haley (Margin 58) - Trump overestimated by 11

Vermont (polling): Trump 61 - 31 Haley (Margin 30) - only one poll done
Vermont (result): Trump 46 - 50 Haley (Margin -4) - Trump overestimated by 34

Virginia (polling): Trump 66 - 17 Haley (Margin 49)
Virginia (result): Trump 63 - 35 Haley (Margin 28) - Trump overestimated by 21

Arkansas (polling): No recent polling
Arkansas (result): Trump 77 - 18 Haley (Margin 59)

Texas (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64)
Texas (result): Trump 78 - 17 Haley (Margin 59) - Trump overestimated by 5

Massachusetts (polling): Trump 67 - 29 Haley (Margin 37)
Massachusetts (result): Trump 60 - 37 Haley (Margin 23) - Trump overestimated by 14

Maine (polling): Trump 66-77 - 19-24 Haley (Margin 42-53) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Maine (result): Trump 72 - 26 Haley (Margin 46) - accurate

Colorado (polling): No recent polling
Colorado (result): Trump 63 - 34 Haley (Margin 29)

Utah (polling): Trump 49 - 22 Haley (Margin 27) - Note this poll was done in Jan and included DeSantis on 13
Utah (result): Trump 58 - 41 Haley (Margin 17) - This one's not done counting but Trump overestimated by 10

California (polling): Trump 76 - 18 Haley (Margin 58)
California (result): Trump 78 - 18 Haley (Margin 60) - Trump underestimated by 2

Ever since the mid-terms and the red wave that never came, the polling has been off.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Into her Emily.

mad bad and dangerous to know

 

[TinFoilHat]

Hayley gone.

She'll make a speech 15:00 our time.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Hayley gone.

She'll make a speech 15:00 our time.

Inevitable.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.

I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.

 

[TinFoilHat]

This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.

I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.

I think she will.

She'll do a speech which everyone will say "Why didn't you say that months ago"

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.

I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.

But she will.

 

[jim tolmies perm]

mad bad and dangerous to kno

Into her Emily.

Piece of scum representing scum

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I think she will.

She'll do a speech which everyone will say "Why didn't you say that months ago"

She was clinging on in the hope that Shitgibbon would be on the way to being convicted on one of the many felony charges against him. Unfortunately she wasn't banking on a corrupt Supreme Court, or the seeming toothless Judiciary going out of their way to appear neutral when in fact they are letting ACB get away with ruling in Trump's favour at every turn.