US Politics Thread

[SWP's back]

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

You and @SkyBlueFlux have been on this from the get-go — thank you. I might argue that the dwindling response rate which winnows down to the “statistical weirdos” is evidence of outrage fatigue. I suspect — though I have no evidence admittedly — that a lot of Americans are so tired of argument and division and are gradually realiz(s)ing how unproductive it is, and that an increasing number of traditional GOP types are blaming Trump (or embarrassed by him) and disengaging from the process. Biden’s base may face similar erosion but not nearly as meaningful as Trump’s.

 

[BayernMan]

Tough night for AIPAC

 

[TinFoilHat]

Hayley expected Not to endorse Shitgibbon.

 

[SWP's back]

Hayley expected Not to endorse Shitgibbon.

Interesting if true.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Interesting if true.

She didn't endorse him. However she said he'd have to "win her vote"

Didn't help as she said it he was calling her a loser.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

You and @SkyBlueFlux have been on this from the get-go — thank you. I might argue that the dwindling response rate which winnows down to the “statistical weirdos” is evidence of outrage fatigue. I suspect — though I have no evidence admittedly — that a lot of Americans are so tired of argument and division and are gradually realiz(s)ing how unproductive it is, and that an increasing number of traditional GOP types are blaming Trump (or embarrassed by him) and disengaging from the process. Biden’s base may face similar erosion but not nearly as meaningful as Trump’s.

I'll be honest, I don't really know the reason the polls are out, all I can say is that they just observably are in most instances. Crucially they are out in swing states - Virginia, Minnesota and Michigan have all seen big polling errors - North Carolina bucks the trend. There are plenty of theories out there as to why that is, but it's ultimately all speculation.

@Tyler from Ohio mentioned on the previous page that a lot of these primaries were open - which is true and that will have some impact. But you necessarily have to square that off with the Democrat side of the primary. The confusing bit is you're seeing almost the exact opposite pattern with Biden - he's being underestimated by polling. If there was a really substantial amount of code-switching going on, you would expect to see every vote for Haley is a vote lost for Biden. But this isn't really happening on any substantial or visible scale. In fact the opposite is happening!

I think the reductionist view is that polling in such a polarised environment is fundamentally really hard to do and data gets skewed by the people who are psychologically motivated to be more vocal about their support. We know it as the shy Tory effect. It's the best guess I have.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Not been a fan of Scaramucci, but this is the most open and honest discussion I have seen from him…probably because of its long form nature and trying to explain the issues to a couple of Brits.

It’s over an hour long, but there’s enough upfront to fill yer boots on just how empty and scary Trump is and could be as 47.



If you have ANY interest in understanding where we are, it’s an hour worth your time.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I'll be honest, I don't really know the reason the polls are out, all I can say is that they just observably are in most instances. Crucially they are out in swing states - Virginia, Minnesota and Michigan have all seen big polling errors - North Carolina bucks the trend. There are plenty of theories out there as to why that is, but it's ultimately all speculation.

@Tyler from Ohio mentioned on the previous page that a lot of these primaries were open - which is true and that will have some impact. But you necessarily have to square that off with the Democrat side of the primary. The confusing bit is you're seeing almost the exact opposite pattern with Biden - he's being underestimated by polling. If there was a really substantial amount of code-switching going on, you would expect to see every vote for Haley is a vote lost for Biden. But this isn't really happening on any substantial or visible scale. In fact the opposite is happening!

I think the reductionist view is that polling in such a polarised environment is fundamentally really hard to do and data gets skewed by the people who are psychologically motivated to be more vocal about their support. We know it as the shy Tory effect. It's the best guess I have.

And, the use of the telephone for polling is antiquated and has become a self-selection bias.

I am being “polled” multiple times DAILY via telephone and hit DELETE AND REPORT JUNK every time. If I was an old Conservative Republican with a landline, I’d pick up the phone and I might WANT to tell you how I feel, because I have grievances I want to tell you all about!

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

And, the use of the telephone for polling is antiquated and has become a self-selection bias.

I am being “polled” multiple times DAILY via telephone and hit DELETE AND REPORT JUNK every time. If I was an old Conservative Republican with a landline, I’d pick up the phone and I might WANT to tell you how I feel, because I have grievances I want to tell you all about!

Polling via telephone in the age of the mobile just doesn't work. The average switched on adult screens all calls and picks up selectively. FOCs will be far more likely to take the call and also the intellectually challenged....

Pollsters might try to correct for this but if they are dealing with 1% pick up then they are literally polling the exceptions.

We are in the dark.