US Politics Thread

[SebastianBlue]

Wait a minute.

Just under half of Wisconsin Democrats approve (strongly or somewhat) of Biden's handling of the war.

So . . . that means based on the youth vote shown (without knowing the age split) that a majority of older Democrats in WI actually approve of his handling of the war?

And who is more likely to vote -- older people or younger ones?

Not sure this data shows what the tweeter wants it to show . . .

I think the point the tweeter was making is that, like in 2020, the younger and independent vote is going to play a big part in Biden’s election prospects, given the demographic and political shifts going in to the November.

And as Biden continues to indirectly (or directly) support Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza and the West Bank, both cohorts are going to shrink, with very few swing replacements from the right or far-right.

Both Michigan and Pennsylvania may be heavily impacted by this flight, which is absolutely not what Biden needs.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I guess the calculation made here is Biden can make up votes from an older electorate that traditionally votes Republican rather than a younger electorate that votes Democrat.

These are Democratic voters polled though. And I'd guess he probably can. No one lost an election catering to the wishes of the young at the expense of the old.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I think the point the tweeter was making is that, like in 2020, the younger and independent vote is going to play a big part in Biden’s election prospects, given the demographic and political shifts going in to the November.

And as Biden continues to indirectly (or directly) support Israel’s genocidal campaign in Gaza and the West Bank, both cohorts are going to shrink, with very few swing replacements from the right or far-right.

Both Michigan and Pennsylvania may be heavily impacted by this flight, which is absolutely not what Biden needs.

The point of the tweeter is to raise awareness for the plight of the innocent citizenry in Gaza and to stop American support for Israel's war there.

Or do you think had the results shown strong favorability for Biden's policies The Intercept would have published them anyhow?

I'm worried about this too but don't think this data is a heavy underscore of the point that Biden's Gaza policies will cost him the state. It's such a knife-edge that nearly anything could, just as Trump's anti-abortion approach could cost him voters too.

Of course those who disagree with the nominee on policy are going to trumpet the nominee's support for the opposite of their side as the tiebreaker. My point is this data doesn't actually show that to be the case.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The point of the tweeter is to raise awareness for the plight of the innocent citizenry in Gaza and to stop American support for Israel's war there.

Or do you think had the results shown strong favorability for Biden's policies The Intercept would have published them anyhow?

I'm worried about this too but don't think this data is a heavy underscore of the point that Biden's Gaza policies will cost him the state. It's such a knife-edge that nearly anything could, just as Trump's anti-abortion approach could cost him voters too.

I think that point is inherent to the one I was explaining. They need each other to be valid.

You are correct in that they probably wouldn’t have shared had the results reflected broad support across Democrat voter cohorts.

But that is not really relevant to the point. The data is there to be interpreted and I think they shared a valid interpretation based on what the Biden campaign will likely need in November.

I think you and I differ on our assessment of how influential the young and independent vote will be in this cycle, particularly for Biden’s chances of reelection and the Democrats chances of securing both chambers of Congress.

And that is fine. But there is growing evidence that Biden’s support amongst younger and independent voters, which played a big part in 2020, is beginning to waiver, largely based on his handling of Israel’s campaign in Gaza (and the West Bank).

As is the usually the case, the insights are in the trends, not the nominal values.

 

[SebastianBlue]

These are Democratic voters polled though. And I'd guess he probably can. No one lost an election catering to the wishes of the young at the expense of the old.

I think you meant the opposite?

 

[SWP's back]

It could be two different blokes. But maybe he was always just a ****.

This Machiavellian marbles missing geriatric will lose his presidency because he was too weak to tell Israel to stop.

Would serve the fucking idiots right to not vote Biden because of that and end up with Trump who would not only support Israel’s genocide but actively encourage it.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

Would serve the fucking idiots right to not vote Biden because of that and end up with Trump who would not only support Israel’s genocide but actively encourage it.

Biden is already encouraging it.

Short of the USA actually sending troops to assist them how could it get any worse?

Hopefully Trump dies on the toilet and Biden has a stroke before November.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I think you meant the opposite?

LOL yes!!

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Short of the USA actually sending troops to assist them how could it get any worse?

Mate, when it comes to Trump, we’ve learned not to ask such a question!!

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I think that point is inherent to the one I was explaining. They need each other to be valid.

You are correct in that they probably wouldn’t have shared had the results reflected broad support across Democrat voter cohorts.

But that is not really relevant to the point. The data is there to be interpreted and I think they shared a valid interpretation based on what the Biden campaign will likely need in November.

I think you and I differ on our assessment of how influential the young and independent vote will be in this cycle, particularly for Biden’s chances of reelection and the Democrats chances of securing both chambers of Congress.

And that is fine. But there is growing evidence that Biden’s support amongst younger and independent voters, which played a big part in 2020, is beginning to waiver, largely based on his handling of Israel’s campaign in Gaza (and the West Bank).

As is the usually the case, the insights are in the trends, not the nominal values.

Well, I don’t know that we disagree that much really on the young — but I am not one who believes Israel/Gaza will be a hot button issue by the time the election rolls around, especially as Trump can’t differentiate his own view other than to say Biden isn’t supportive of Israel enough for MAGA’s liking. The risk is apathy, I think we agree, but I also expect Biden will focus on drawing distinction enough to ensure his “we must defeat Trump at all costs” base will turn out. And he has reproductive rights as his key stick there. To waver in public support for Israel might risk Jewish democrats, who could be attracted to Trump’s stance. Rock and a hard place publicly (though not morally IMO, and that’s where Biden might be able to make headway via criticism). It’s a trap really — both “sides” have unsavoury associations though really the only “side” that should matter are innocent Palestinians and Jews caught in the crossfire vs. those doing the purposeful or indiscriminate firing.