US Politics Thread

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I know that many (most?) of you discount polls as predictors of election outcomes, and I've heard your various arguments against trusting polls.

Nonetheless, this is fucking scary (odds of winning the presidency according to bettors - Trump 53%; Biden, 39%).
electionbettingodds.com

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...
electionbettingodds.com

At the same time, going state-by-state, should odds hold precisely, the same website shows that Biden would narrowly win reelection - but this supposes that Biden wins a bunch of swing states that are extremely close - the odds that he'll carry all such swing states is low, supposing that the odds cited are accurate (they likely are not exactly accurate and yes I'm aware of the numerous objections as to the accuracy of election outcome polling).

We're months away from election day, and Biden is facing blowback from the Israeli-Palestinian crisis that will likely (hopefully) resolve prior to election day. At the same time, Jesus fucking Christ - how is it possible that so many Americans support Trump?...

To answer my own question - I think that a huge part of the support for Trump is due to the echo chamber of lies and misinformation propagated by numerous right-leaning outlets which gladly serve up mistruths because that is what their audience wants to hear and moreover, aligns with the viewpoints of their ownership.
Click to expand...
Fox News is the most watched network in US.
 
BobKowalski said:
It has less than 2m viewers. Cable news audience has steadily declined overall and Fox was down 20% in 2023 and is currently down again this year.

Mainstream news is around 18m across three channels.
Click to expand...
If Fox is the most watched with 2m, how have the other 3 got 18m across them?
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I know that many (most?) of you discount polls as predictors of election outcomes, and I've heard your various arguments against trusting polls.

Nonetheless, this is fucking scary (odds of winning the presidency according to bettors - Trump 53%; Biden, 39%).
electionbettingodds.com

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...
electionbettingodds.com

At the same time, going state-by-state, should odds hold precisely, the same website shows that Biden would narrowly win reelection - but this supposes that Biden wins a bunch of swing states that are extremely close - the odds that he'll carry all such swing states is low, supposing that the odds cited are accurate (they likely are not exactly accurate and yes I'm aware of the numerous objections as to the accuracy of election outcome polling).

We're months away from election day, and Biden is facing blowback from the Israeli-Palestinian crisis that will likely (hopefully) resolve prior to election day. At the same time, Jesus fucking Christ - how is it possible that so many Americans support Trump?...

To answer my own question - I think that a huge part of the support for Trump is due to the echo chamber of lies and misinformation propagated by numerous right-leaning outlets which gladly serve up mistruths because that is what their audience wants to hear and moreover, aligns with the viewpoints of their ownership.
Click to expand...
1. The betting odds on City being relegated next year have gone from 2,500-1 to 25-1. I wonder how many posters here have bet on City being relegated. Must be a lot. After all, we are all closer to the facts of the case than fans of other clubs. That's the only explanation.

2. You realiz(s)e who owns the site you linked to, right?

3. The reason so many people support Trump is that he's a Republican and the vast majority of party-aligned folks vote their party no matter who the specific candidates are.
 
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FogBlueInSanFran said:
1. The betting odds on City being relegated next year have gone from 2,500-1 to 25-1. I wonder how many posters here have bet on City being relegated. Must be a lot. After all, we are all closer to the facts of the case than fans of other clubs. That's the only explanation.

2. You realiz(s)e who owns the site you linked to, right?

3. The reason so many people support Trump is that he's a Republican and the vast majority of party-aligned folks vote their party no matter who the specific candidates are.
Click to expand...
Real blue sky thinkers eh Foggy? :-)
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
Can't see the chemistry being great between Starmer and trump next year but it might be a laugh at least.
Click to expand...
It'll be far from funny. It'll be an unmitigated disaster, certainly militarily. Labour have never had much or a clue when it comes to defence policy. Always very short sighted. I still haven't forgiven them for the cancellation of the TSR2 project in 1965.
 
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