US Politics Thread

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I’m sticking nervously to my prediction of a Harris win.

His (betting/polling) lead is a lot narrower than it was over Hilary , and that turned out to in reality much lower in the end. I think Harris will win on popular vote but electoral college will probably get trump over the line.

 

[TinFoilHat]

So who’s leading at the moment? Is the orange gibbon really going to get in again?

I predict he will declare victory around 0300 UK time, regardless of the result and will let the lawyers and SCOTUS coronate him.

 

[moomba]

I'm changing my mind every day over who is likely to win and who isn't. Currently I think Harris is making all the right moves and will attract enough neutral and dissatisfied republicans to win where it matters.

 

[TinFoilHat]

I'm changing my mind every day over who is likely to win and who isn't. Currently I think Harris is making all the right moves and will attract enough neutral and dissatisfied republicans to win where it matters.

She needs to win Bigly to stop any legal challenges from the Mango Mussolini.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

She needs to win Bigly to stop any legal challenges from the Mango Mussolini.

He’s going to challenge the result regardless if he loses. The larger the win, the more obvious the fraud is what he’ll claim.

 

[TinFoilHat]

MTG offering blowjobs for votes yet?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I’m sticking nervously to my prediction of a Harris win.

It's a weird scenario where polling says it's a dead heat and depending on how many right leaning polls you look at can swing the result from Harris to Trump. All of it is basically in the margin of error.

But look outside the polling to the fund raising and voter registration data and Harirs is killing him.

Voter odds favour Trump and I guess that is because he outperformed his polling in 2016 and 2020 although in the later race not by enough to win. But each one is so different, trump's first attempt he was the outsider and by the second it was mid covid and he was doing a terrible job. Then this race is 1st since Jan 6th and Roe v Wade and all the election denial stuff.

Very hard to call.

 

[KS55]

I am baffled by Trump’s apparent favouritism.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I am baffled by Trump’s apparent favouritism.

Yeah.

Some things don't add up. Like Arizona.

Biden won Arizona with 49.4% to 49.1%. Super close.

Kari Lake tried for Govenor in 2022 she got 49% of the vote with a hardcore Trump/maga offer but lost.

Shes now going for Arizona Senate seat. She's down 6 to 8 points depending on polls. So looking like a straight forward defeat. Both her and the dem are not incumbent so this is a straight up race between a dem and a Trumpy gop candidate. And you would expect anyone voting Trump there to also vote for Lake, she's all over fox and the same maga media as Trump.

The polling for potus is a dead heat Harris/ Trump.

Makes zero sense. How are the same voters not 100% aligned on the Senate seat as potus.

 

[TinFoilHat]

Yeah.

Some things don't add up. Like Arizona.

Biden won Arizona with 49.4% to 49.1%. Super close.

Kari Lake tried for Govenor in 2022 she got 49% of the vote with a hardcore Trump/maga offer but lost.

Shes now going for Arizona Senate seat. She's down 6 to 8 points depending on polls. So looking like a straight forward defeat. Both her and the dem are not incumbent so this is a straight up race between a dem and a Trumpy gop candidate. And you would expect anyone voting Trump there to also vote for Lake, she's all over fox and the same maga media as Trump.

The polling for potus is a dead heat Harris/ Trump.

Makes zero sense. How are the same voters not 100% aligned on the Senate seat as potus.

Yanks could vote Trump in and 'balance it' with the Dems having both houses. Which will make it worse as he will use executive orders to take out every political opponent to take control of both using his newly appointed immunity.