Piggy backing off this. Some interest early voting numbers. When you look at the registration of voters who have voted early:
It looks pretty much like there’s an even number of Rep and Dem early voters… but…
Some polling of early voters has been released today. Note that polling somebody after they’ve voted is a
lot more accurate always, because you are asking about something that has already happened so people don’t have room to project or obfuscate. The early voting poll looks like this:
An average 24 pt lead.
What can we take from this? Well there’s some possibilities. Either:
- The party registration data is inaccurate. I think this is partly the case, some of it is based on how people voted in the primaries so there is some definite flex in there.
- The early voting polling is inaccurate. Again possible, but this is a series of polls by different pollsters all giving a 19-29 point lead, would seem unlikely that they’re all way out.
- Or both are accurate and therefore
a lot of people who look statistically like Republicans in registration are actually voting Democrat. We know that this was the case for many people who’d supported Haley.
I think the truth is that it’s a combination of all of the above - but what is significant is that this early voting lead is more than double what Clinton had in 2016 (2020 not comparable given COVID).
I think it could still be close, but what I will say is the more data I see the more the odds of a complete Trump capitulation seem like a possibility. Far from certain though. Ultimately people need to get out and vote.
