US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[Johnny Mars Bar]

 

[grunge]

We watched that episode last night. just making our way through it again. excellent show.

 

[Lowtower]

The dynamic of this is thread is very interesting.

You’ve got a small contingent of us that have been intently following, analysing, discussing, and debating this election for months (even years) in the other US politics threads (that are currently locked). Most with skin in the game as either Americans or, like me, non-Americans that live in the US (and have American children).

You have others—probably most participants—that are just interested in the election on the day and aren’t looking to make any predictions or bold assertions about the why or how or what of the election, they just want to follow along.

Then you have a contingent of posters that were rarely, if ever, seen in the US politics threads, going full Wolf Blitzer, sharing dubious claims, making ignorant but exceedingly confident proclamations, and generally wanting to appear as experts on the subject they have just now decided to care about for the day.

This really is the match thread for the Election.

Thats how elections work mate.

Relies on us morons to get the parties into power.

 

[Ducado]

Let’s be honest, she isn’t holding Bidens serve. NC looks like a pretty big hill to climb. Trump probably wins AZ, GA and perhaps NV. If that happens she had to run the table in PA, MI, and WI. Could happen. Like drawing to an inside straight. It could happen to you will go get to the poor house rather quickly playing poker.

My sister lives in North Carolina, its a changing state huge influx of people from the North (mainly Democrats) which has changed the demographics not sure if it's changed enough

 

[lancs blue]

I find it interesting that there's not a single American woman posting here that we know about, and my guess is, very few if any young people. If Harris is to win, it's these two groups that will rise up.

As such, I am taking nearly all predictions from UK-based FOCs (no offense :)) with a heavy dose of salt.

This UK-based FOC thinks that the women will turn out in numbers and Trump will turn from orange pumpkin to brown toast.

 

[SebastianBlue]

This is an ‘Electoral Vote Map’, which reformats the US map to reflect the number of Electoral College votes that each states has (symbolised by a hexagon), in their relative position in the country.

I think it is an easier way to grasp the relative influence of various states in the presidential election, with some impacting the outcome far more (and some far less) than their geographic size would imply.

This is another map from the 2020 election to compensate for the distortions of the Red/Blue state geographic map that’s most commonly used to reflect presidential election results, and which gives the false impression that there are more Republican voters than Democrat voters, especially in the central plains and mountain regions.

It illustrates the corrective adage “land doesn’t vote, people do”, which is, unfortunately, only partly true in US elections (but that is another discussion entirely).

 

[TinFoilHat]

We watched that episode last night. just making our way through it again. excellent show.

It's a beautifully well written show and I'd happily be the meat in a CJ/Donna sandwich.

 

[KS55]

Good question. This time around everyone votes for their house member. Every two years about 1/3 of the Senate are up for reelection. I said in a previous post that’s another important issue tonight.

I live in New Jersey and I voted for President, my house district and NJ is electing a new senator. The previous one was involved in a play for pay scandal and got kicked out-go figure. However the state of NJ is heavily skews Democrat due to a few large urban centers so if the Democrats nominated Pol Pot for the seat, he would win.

Sometimes other types of things are on the ballot like should the state legalise weed or gambling. Stuff like that

You also have local election on the same ballot such as school board members or county commissioners of even state wide elections like governor.

This time Texas has both gubernatorial and senate elections. The Rep candidates are not popular and this may infect the presidential election, giving Harris an outside chance of taking the state.

 

[Ducado]

I am being honest. Harder in GA and in WI, but as I've said before, the anti-Lake and abortion constitutional amendment in AZ may help her turnout immensely, and by all accounts Trump's on-the-ground effort in NV is his worst in any swing state.

I do go back to a point made by many others -- where are Trump's additional votes coming from vs. the new votes coming from switcheroos, higher female participation, and the largest wave in several decades of kids turning 18 (including both mine, by the way)? I don't want to overstate this, but someone else kept talking about this being a maths problem. High turnout helps her, not him.

Oh, and by the way -- recall that point you made about down African-American turnout? Did you see the stat out yesterday or the day before that said it had dramatically reversed and was back to normal levels over the last week?

High Turn out always benefits centre or left leaning parties it's exactly the same in the UK, as we saw with Brexit the normal centre ground voter is rather apathetic whilst your average foaming at the mouth far right nutter is guaranteed to turnout

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

As I've said before, this is a UK based football forum. I wouldn't go on a maga/democrat forum and expect (or feel entitled to) intelligent debate about city.

Meh... your logic is questionable in the extreme.

As for the discourse in this thread- I think it's almost certainly bound to be skewed towards a non-US-citizen's perspective - afterall, Bluemoon is full of non-Americans who, nonetheless, have views and interest in American politics and who thus contribute to this and related threads. That this somehow reduces the level of discourse here below that which you would find in a dedicated US-based "MAGA/Democrat" forum is, IMO, off-the-mark.