That's only true for the penalties that the ref sees, and that are close to 50/50, where in the past the ref would make a decision. I agree that refs would now leave some of those to VAR, rather than giving them, and that's a problem if VAR is getting changing advice, and now being instructed to not overturn in most cases.If referees are afraid to give big decisions and the VARs aren’t inclined to overrule them, you’d have thought that would naturally lead to less penalties?
But the exact opposite is true. There’s been more penalties awarded on average per season in the VAR years than in any equivalent time frame since they started recording these things.
So the number in that category may have dropped slightly, but it's more than made up by the number of penalties given for incidents the ref doesn't see, or doesn't see clearly enough, and that would never have been given without VAR.