Villarreal to field under-strength side against Napoli

[bluehousemusic]

but they cannot qualify!

Some people here are talking absolute turd. Year in year out I hear conspiracies and teams that must win will win, and teams that have nothing to play for, it never happens like that. Genk are currently winning 1-0 against Leverkusen, the shite have beaten both Hull and Soton on the last day with nothing to play for.

Do you people not realise that the 4/5- 8/11 is already priced on the team news. Now I must admit that I expected him to play Cani and Nilmar, now that they were both in the squad and did play against Santander. So expect a possible slight recorrection of the Napoli price maybe to a blanket 8/11 possibly 4/6. If all Villarreals squad were fit, and this was a game which was all to play for to a 106% book Villarreal would be 1/1, the Draw 12/5 and Napoli 11/4. If Villarreal had a fully fit squad but nothing to play for, they should still be jollies but most likely the prices would be pick em, or Napoli slight Jollies at 7/5, 11/8. As it stands Villarreal have had shocking team news, which is improving have only professional pride and win money to play for, so Napoli are 8/11 shots. Everything is in the price, but it's gone too far, I've had a small investment on the Yellow Submarines @ 5.6 and 5.7 on the fair, because I genuinely make them a 23% chance the draw 27% and Napoli 50%.

Oh and for all the conspiraciests AC Milan drifted to a best 7/5 with Hills and 29/20 on the exchanges, they are playing a half strength team vs a team who must win, they are currently 2-0 up

how on earth have you come up with those percentages? i follow you with odds bit but after that seems like bollocks.

It's not bollocks mate, if you make a game pick em it's 36% both teams and 28% the draw, then apply your margin accordingly.

Conversly if I make Napoli 50% to win the draw 27% and Villarreal 23% then I would apply margin at 106% something like 9/10 Napoli (52.6%) Villareal 3/1 (25%) and the Draw 5/2 (28.6%). Thus a book of 106.2%.

When a bookmaker (or at least a decent bookmaker) prices and event he works out what % he makes each event has of winning (regardless of sport). Once he is happy with his 100% prices he will then apply his overround accordingly. All events have an implied mathematical chance of occuring.

I could go on, but I have work to do<br /><br />-- Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:46 pm --<br /><br />

but they cannot qualify!

Some people here are talking absolute turd. Year in year out I hear conspiracies and teams that must win will win, and teams that have nothing to play for, it never happens like that. Genk are currently winning 1-0 against Leverkusen, the shite have beaten both Hull and Soton on the last day with nothing to play for.

Do you people not realise that the 4/5- 8/11 is already priced on the team news. Now I must admit that I expected him to play Cani and Nilmar, now that they were both in the squad and did play against Santander. So expect a possible slight recorrection of the Napoli price maybe to a blanket 8/11 possibly 4/6. If all Villarreals squad were fit, and this was a game which was all to play for to a 106% book Villarreal would be 1/1, the Draw 12/5 and Napoli 11/4. If Villarreal had a fully fit squad but nothing to play for, they should still be jollies but most likely the prices would be pick em, or Napoli slight Jollies at 7/5, 11/8. As it stands Villarreal have had shocking team news, which is improving have only professional pride and win money to play for, so Napoli are 8/11 shots. Everything is in the price, but it's gone too far, I've had a small investment on the Yellow Submarines @ 5.6 and 5.7 on the fair, because I genuinely make them a 23% chance the draw 27% and Napoli 50%.

Oh and for all the conspiraciests AC Milan drifted to a best 7/5 with Hills and 29/20 on the exchanges, they are playing a half strength team vs a team who must win, they are currently 2-0 up

So how much should I put on a draw then?

It's easy after the event mate, at least I back my opinion, which in this case was a loss on AC Milan after being happy with the bet @ 7/5, especially as they went off 6/5. Happy with the bet despite it losing, would have had more on but an Italian team instantly puts me off, but if they played the game again tomorrow under the same circumstances I would still back AC at 7/5

 

[itisrising]

You know we might not make the last 16 but atleast we will go down fighting. Give Bayern a match and show we can hang with the big boys. Come on City!

CTID

 

[cleavers]

“We will field the players who are in the best condition, the ones who can last for 90 minutes.

“We will use this match to restore our players' confidence, and obviously to get strength for the rest of the season.”

Both good in my opinion, lets wait and see, then if they do play a weak size we can ask UEFA to look into it, and the comments from the Napoli owner about City "buying" a result.

 

[bernabias home shirt]

Some people here are talking absolute turd. Year in year out I hear conspiracies and teams that must win will win, and teams that have nothing to play for, it never happens like that. Genk are currently winning 1-0 against Leverkusen, the shite have beaten both Hull and Soton on the last day with nothing to play for.

Do you people not realise that the 4/5- 8/11 is already priced on the team news. Now I must admit that I expected him to play Cani and Nilmar, now that they were both in the squad and did play against Santander. So expect a possible slight recorrection of the Napoli price maybe to a blanket 8/11 possibly 4/6. If all Villarreals squad were fit, and this was a game which was all to play for to a 106% book Villarreal would be 1/1, the Draw 12/5 and Napoli 11/4. If Villarreal had a fully fit squad but nothing to play for, they should still be jollies but most likely the prices would be pick em, or Napoli slight Jollies at 7/5, 11/8. As it stands Villarreal have had shocking team news, which is improving have only professional pride and win money to play for, so Napoli are 8/11 shots. Everything is in the price, but it's gone too far, I've had a small investment on the Yellow Submarines @ 5.6 and 5.7 on the fair, because I genuinely make them a 23% chance the draw 27% and Napoli 50%.

Oh and for all the conspiraciests AC Milan drifted to a best 7/5 with Hills and 29/20 on the exchanges, they are playing a half strength team vs a team who must win, they are currently 2-0 up

how on earth have you come up with those percentages? i follow you with odds bit but after that seems like bollocks.

It's not bollocks mate, if you make a game pick em it's 36% both teams and 28% the draw, then apply your margin accordingly.

Conversly if I make Napoli 50% to win the draw 27% and Villarreal 23% then I would apply margin at 106% something like 9/10 Napoli (52.6%) Villareal 3/1 (25%) and the Draw 5/2 (28.6%). Thus a book of 106.2%.

When a bookmaker (or at least a decent bookmaker) prices and event he works out what % he makes each event has of winning (regardless of sport). Once he is happy with his 100% prices he will then apply his overround accordingly. All events have an implied mathematical chance of occuring.

I could go on, but I have work to do

-- Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:46 pm --

Some people here are talking absolute turd. Year in year out I hear conspiracies and teams that must win will win, and teams that have nothing to play for, it never happens like that. Genk are currently winning 1-0 against Leverkusen, the shite have beaten both Hull and Soton on the last day with nothing to play for.

Do you people not realise that the 4/5- 8/11 is already priced on the team news. Now I must admit that I expected him to play Cani and Nilmar, now that they were both in the squad and did play against Santander. So expect a possible slight recorrection of the Napoli price maybe to a blanket 8/11 possibly 4/6. If all Villarreals squad were fit, and this was a game which was all to play for to a 106% book Villarreal would be 1/1, the Draw 12/5 and Napoli 11/4. If Villarreal had a fully fit squad but nothing to play for, they should still be jollies but most likely the prices would be pick em, or Napoli slight Jollies at 7/5, 11/8. As it stands Villarreal have had shocking team news, which is improving have only professional pride and win money to play for, so Napoli are 8/11 shots. Everything is in the price, but it's gone too far, I've had a small investment on the Yellow Submarines @ 5.6 and 5.7 on the fair, because I genuinely make them a 23% chance the draw 27% and Napoli 50%.

Oh and for all the conspiraciests AC Milan drifted to a best 7/5 with Hills and 29/20 on the exchanges, they are playing a half strength team vs a team who must win, they are currently 2-0 up

So how much should I put on a draw then?

It's easy after the event mate, at least I back my opinion, which in this case was a loss on AC Milan after being happy with the bet @ 7/5, especially as they went off 6/5. Happy with the bet despite it losing, would have had more on but an Italian team instantly puts me off, but if they played the game again tomorrow under the same circumstances I would still back AC at 7/5

Some of your percentages are out my friend but only just..

To be honest you are quite right regarding the odds on the yellow boys on any normal straight shoot out they would be 2.2-2.5 or round about..

I guess its like munich at city this is the only scenario you would ever get 5/1 on the germans against us ..

I guess you could look back after any of the the results & say how the fuck were they that price!

 

[lancs blue]

“We will field the players who are in the best condition, the ones who can last for 90 minutes.

“We will use this match to restore our players' confidence, and obviously to get strength for the rest of the season.”

Both good in my opinion, lets wait and see, then if they do play a weak size we can ask UEFA to look into it, and the comments from the Napoli owner about City "buying" a result.

Why? There are no rules about what constitutes a full strength team in UEFA competitions, you can play any eligible XI.

 

[Fame Monster]

If Napoli are out of sight at half-time, we should look at resting players, especially Yaya.

 

[dw7]

If Napoli are out of sight at half-time, we should look at resting players, especially Yaya.

Good idea that

 

[waspish]

Players who don't get much game time will have more of a point to prove than the ones who have been dicked every week! Not worried one bit they'll get a draw

 

[cleavers]

Why? There are no rules about what constitutes a full strength team in UEFA competitions, you can play any eligible XI.

Maybe you need to read the FULL sentence ;o)

 

[Fame Monster]

If Napoli are out of sight at half-time, we should look at resting players, especially Yaya.

Good idea that

I'm an ideas type of guy.

Here's another: if the game becomes meaningless and we do end up taking players off, fans will still want their money's worth even though the game's dead. That means one thing: put Balotelli in net to amuse us.