Villarreal to field under-strength side against Napoli

[LongsightM13]

If Napoli are out of sight at half-time, we should look at resting players, especially Yaya.

Good idea that

I'm an ideas type of guy.

Here's another: if the game becomes meaningless and we do end up taking players off, fans will still want their money's worth even though the game's dead. That means one thing: put Balotelli in net to amuse us.

That is actually brilliant

 

[Impeccable One]

anybody know what price napoli are to win...

If you put £1000 on you will get about £1800 back with betfair..

Very tempting!

And, you could win (City go through) even if you lose (bet) :D

 

[Santiago Street]

I don't trade Champs League so I have no stats on that but ............

Since season 2003/2004, top flight games in Spain and Italy where the away team is priced between 1.75 and 1.85 result in away wins only 39% of the time.

Whilst not directly applicable it shows that fancied away teams often underperform although the obvious rider is that a draw is probably no good to Napoli

 

[bluehousemusic]

So is there a way to work out value in odds? Obv munich at 5/1 is great value.

Yes if the price offered is greater than the % chance you make it, you should strike a bet. However you should most of the time factor in some margin of error on your behalf, say anything between 2 and 4 %. Effectively if you were to make the % chance of an event occcuring 20% and the price offered was 4/1 (20%) or shorter, then you should not place a bet, as the odds reflect a stronger % chance of the event occuring than you make it. If the odds were 9/2 (18.18%) you could have a bet, because it's 1.82% less than you make it, but you should really factor in your margin of error, so I would swerve it or have a tiny bet. If they were 5/1 (16.67%) then have a bet, and if they were 11/2 (15.4%) or bigger then start getting the bat out.

Essentially the bigger the price is away from what you make the market then the larger the investment you should have.

Bayern do look big @ 5/1, But no Robben or Kroos, nor Pig boy, plus kicker have the team as the bayern fan lists earlier in the thread(no ribery no van b). So Would not put you off the price, if it was an all to play for match full strength Bayern the true 100% prices would be around 45% City 27% Draw and 28% BM, 28% is between 13/5 and 5/2, (In fact Bayern could be shorter than that) thus to a bookies over round would be 12/5 to 9/4.<br /><br />-- Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:03 am --<br /><br />

how on earth have you come up with those percentages? i follow you with odds bit but after that seems like bollocks.

It's not bollocks mate, if you make a game pick em it's 36% both teams and 28% the draw, then apply your margin accordingly.

Conversly if I make Napoli 50% to win the draw 27% and Villarreal 23% then I would apply margin at 106% something like 9/10 Napoli (52.6%) Villareal 3/1 (25%) and the Draw 5/2 (28.6%). Thus a book of 106.2%.

When a bookmaker (or at least a decent bookmaker) prices and event he works out what % he makes each event has of winning (regardless of sport). Once he is happy with his 100% prices he will then apply his overround accordingly. All events have an implied mathematical chance of occuring.

I could go on, but I have work to do

-- Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:46 pm --

So how much should I put on a draw then?

It's easy after the event mate, at least I back my opinion, which in this case was a loss on AC Milan after being happy with the bet @ 7/5, especially as they went off 6/5. Happy with the bet despite it losing, would have had more on but an Italian team instantly puts me off, but if they played the game again tomorrow under the same circumstances I would still back AC at 7/5

Some of your percentages are out my friend but only just..

To be honest you are quite right regarding the odds on the yellow boys on any normal straight shoot out they would be 2.2-2.5 or round about..

I guess its like munich at city this is the only scenario you would ever get 5/1 on the germans against us ..

I guess you could look back after any of the the results & say how the fuck were they that price!

I'm fairly confident in my %'s Cookie, when the tournament first kicked off Napoli and Villarreal were pick em, they were both priced up as between 0.4 and 0.5 goal supremacy favourites vs each other at home.

Thus I made both games roughly 0.45 (H/A) Sup and 2.65 Total Goals both games, which is in anyones language 46.5% (h) 27.5% (d) and 26% (a), so with an overound the yellow submarines would have been 1/1 to 11/10 on an all to play for full strength game. However they lost Rossi, Nilmar, Cani, Zapata, Senna, Ruben and Camunas during the group stage, and sadly they couldn't cope with that. City, Napoli and Bayern all got lucky with Villarreal's injury list, not saying they would have qualified but they wouldn't be on Nil point