We're still favourites - WHY?

[Chippy_boy]

I don't believe in such nonsense. For that reason you won't see me having a fit if we lose at Old Trafford or the Emirates this season.

Whether you believe in it or not, it's simple arithmetic that if we do better in games this season compared to their equivalents last season, we will pick up more points.

If you compare those games, at home we lost to the rags and Norwich and drew with Everton. So we're 8 points better off.

On the road, the two really bad results have been at Villa and Cardiff. We won at Villa last season so that's 3 points dropped and if you equate Cardiff with Reading (both Championship winners) we dropped another 3. But we played an already relegated Reading whereas we played a fired-up Cardiff in their first home PL game. We led in both games so our results were definitely very disappointing.

But we only actually dropped one point at Chelsea, in a game where we played much better than the previous season, and did no worse at Sunderland and Stoke. We also won at West Ham, after a turgid draw last season. So there's really only 2 games where we've had significantly poorer results than last season and 4 where we've had significantly better results.

(By "significant" I mean a 2 or 3 point swing.)

All very interesting mate, but we "significantly" lost the title last season. Fortunately, the wheels have fallen off at the swamp, but nevertheless just saying we are doing better than last season (which I agree we are) does not mean that is necessarily good enough.

 

[BobKowalski]

I don't believe in such nonsense. For that reason you won't see me having a fit if we lose at Old Trafford or the Emirates this season.

Whether you believe in it or not, it's simple arithmetic that if we do better in games this season compared to their equivalents last season, we will pick up more points.

If you compare those games, at home we lost to the rags and Norwich and drew with Everton. So we're 8 points better off.

You do know that this 'comparing equivalents' never works. For starters they are not equivalents as it implies they are the same when they are not. You have different players/different managers/different mind sets/on a losing run/on a winning run/the weather/the conditions/star player injured or not injured or not getting any from the missus or getting too much or any number of different variables that can influence the result.

The sole purpose of 'comparing equivalents' is to make you feel good when reality is looking a bit crappy.

 

[bernabias home shirt]

Chelsea are the value bet to me.

It is amazing the Chelsea price
They are near enough twice the odds they were before the season started

I've backed us to win at 5/2,11/4,2/1
We are a long way clear of anyone it's just the fucking away form
I could see us being odds on fav by Xmas if we put a good run together between now & then.

 

[Beezer]

Simple. Bookies hire statisticians to look at all kinds of things to determine the most likely outcome. Apparently the trajectory of our statistics point toward a title at the moment. If you haven't checked out http://www.statsbomb.com - I highly recommend. I'm not the best numbers man, but I have really liked the way they analyze games (and they have a blue contribute to their articles and podcast - which is nice)

 

[Centurions]

Try a search, its easy enough fella lol.

Arse have conceded 10 goals and sit top yet with just 2 more, we are apparently shambolic at the back?

You know what, fuck it, i cant be arsed any more as im busy watching Pellegrini turn us into one of the worlds best club sides ;-)

We've taken just 4 points from 18 away, we're six points down on this stage last season when most of us were disappointed with how we were faring, I can't fathom anyone who thinks there's nothing of concern. If we don't improve our defensive record away from home, we won't win anything. Now I believe we're fully capable of improving our defensive record, yesterday fills me with a lot of confidence that we can improve away from home if we adopt a similar approach away from home, however, make no mistake, however good we are at home, we cannot win trophies with our away record as it is.

I can't fathom how most of us can't see the away points aren't very reflective of how we've played and that part of the problem has been patched up CH pairings. How many times will we concede like we did against Villa and to Chelsea. Komps will hopefully be back soon. DeMichelis is finding his feet.

Of course we can't win making mistakes at the back, but I think only the most pessimistic Blues can't see the picture is improving.

There is a slight elephant in the room in regards of the Villa game in that Kompany played alongside Nastasic.
That said we 'should' all know we've generally played better than our away points return would indicate (if you ignore some total balls ups in defence). I think very shortly we'll be hammering teams away as well as at home, it'll just click.

 

[sir baconface]

Opinion will continue to lurch one way and another for some time to come.

If the bookies would give me odds I'd put a few grand on that.

 

[Skashion]

Whether you believe in it or not, it's simple arithmetic that if we do better in games this season compared to their equivalents last season, we will pick up more points.

If you compare those games, at home we lost to the rags and Norwich and drew with Everton. So we're 8 points better off.

On the road, the two really bad results have been at Villa and Cardiff. We won at Villa last season so that's 3 points dropped and if you equate Cardiff with Reading (both Championship winners) we dropped another 3. But we played an already relegated Reading whereas we played a fired-up Cardiff in their first home PL game. We led in both games so our results were definitely very disappointing.

But we only actually dropped one point at Chelsea, in a game where we played much better than the previous season, and did no worse at Sunderland and Stoke. We also won at West Ham, after a turgid draw last season. So there's really only 2 games where we've had significantly poorer results than last season and 4 where we've had significantly better results.

(By "significant" I mean a 2 or 3 point swing.)

If it applies over a whole season, absolutely, it matters. However, the reason we're not on the 28 points we were on this stage last season is not because we've had a hard start this season, we haven't had a hard start, we just dropped too many stupid points at all points last season whilst also pulling out some impressive wins at the Emirates and at The Swamp. That's the natural variation of football. Anyone can beat anyone on their day so direct comparison of fixtures is not something I think is especially useful. As I said, for this reason I'm not going to explode and post threads about us dropping more points against the rest of the top four in away games if we fail that hurdle. After all, having already lost to Chelsea, we cannot actually better our away record at top four grounds from last season, we can only equal it. We also dropped only twelve points at home last season, and you've already used up seven of them in your calculation with two-thirds of the season left, so we're left with little manoeuvre if we're going to beat even last season's disappointing total of 78 points. We've got to get 2.15 points per game from here just to better last year's total (0.3 points per game better than our current rate), something which is far from certain in my mind at least. That might well be title winning pace this season thankfully but suffice to say your post about this equivalent games model has not convinced me. There is just too much variation in who can beat who in any random season when compared with another as this graph demonstrates:

Also, trying to slip in Norwich as a genuine comparison makes you look disingenuous, especially considering you tried to contexualise playing Reading but didn't apply the same to Norwich; end of season, nothing to play for, and Brian Kidd managing us.

 

[Mr. Aguia]

I don't believe in such nonsense. For that reason you won't see me having a fit if we lose at Old Trafford or the Emirates this season.

Whether you believe in it or not, it's simple arithmetic that if we do better in games this season compared to their equivalents last season, we will pick up more points.

If you compare those games, at home we lost to the rags and Norwich and drew with Everton. So we're 8 points better off.

You do know that this 'comparing equivalents' never works. For starters they are not equivalents as it implies they are the same when they are not. You have different players/different managers/different mind sets/on a losing run/on a winning run/the weather/the conditions/star player injured or not injured or not getting any from the missus or getting too much or any number of different variables that can influence the result.

The sole purpose of 'comparing equivalents' is to make you feel good when reality is looking a bit crappy.

Especially when you take into account that Norwich were much better last year, beat us at home in a meaningless game with no manager. So yes we gained 3 points there, but they are shit this year.

 

[gmckennasell]

we are favourites because we are easily the best football team in the premiership , but the best team doesnt always win the league , yooonited are a good example they are absolutely shite , probably the worst team ever to win the top division . My money would still be on chelsea , because mourinho is as good as baconface when getting garbage players too grind out results.

 

[cleavers]

Great graphic, it just shows how tough this league is. I'm sure it can be done every year, but after only 10 games, I doubt it, and unlikely in any other league (no doubt somebody will prove me wrong).