Impossible to predict imho since it depends on things entirely out of our control. IF our key players remain fit and IF Pellegrini starts to learn from the mistakes of previous seasons, I think we have the players, the ability and the experience to win it.
The realist in me says we are likely to have Sergio missing for large parts of the season and likewise Vinny in and out of the team with various injuries. And we are likely to be tearing our hair out watching decent teams waltz right through Fernando and Toure.
So if I had to pick a number, I'd say 2nd. Chelsea's defence is rock solid, their midfield rhobust and with Falcao (who Mourinho will doubtless get the best out of) they are a better side than the side that won it comfortably last season.
The pundits (many pundits) suggesting we'll finish 4th, are on drugs however.