Who should be the next leader of the Tory party?

[Gabriel]

8 does seem very low. 36 is still less than 10% of MPs.

It'll still come down to
(a) the campaign to make the final two, and eliminating rival and possibly better candidates
(b) whether the MPs are looking at September 2022 or general election 2024
(c) what the party members are looking at.

There will doubtlessly be a lot of mud thrown - Javid was the first knife, Sunak apparently the one who blocked tax cuts, Zahawi the ingrate Chancellor. I'd think that all of the others would want to get rid of those 3.

Sunak will likely get through the early round(s) but then will run up against a ‘stop Rishi‘ coalition, so just a question of whether that is built earlier than the final two. If it is earlier, then the two final candidates will be similar on policy but different in personality. I don’t see any of the rest having a long-term plan to reduce the deficit and to stimulate growth; it’s all just a repeat of short-term policies that have got them where they are and where the country is.

It would be suicide to call an election earlier than 2024 now, still think Jan 2025.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Sunak will likely get through the early round(s) but then will run up against a ‘stop Rishi‘ coalition, so just a question of whether that is built earlier than the final two. If it is earlier, then the two final candidates will be similar on policy but different in personality. I don’t see any of the rest having a long-term plan to reduce the deficit and to stimulate growth; it’s all just a repeat of short-term policies that have got them where they are and where the country is.

It would be suicide to call an election earlier than 2024 now, still think Jan 2025.

I had in mind that 2024 was election year, but I see it can be January 2025. I'd thought there was a 5 year maximum between elections, and not 5 years to dissolution. +25 days.

I didn't mean that anyone would think of calling an election this year - just whether they are thinking of winning now amongst members, or the choice being reasonable for the general election.

I also expect the stop Sunak campaign to hit. Just depends when, and who each bit of the media back.

 

[west didsblue]

Can't see any of them making a substantive difference to the performance of the economy as long as they are forced for political reasons to remain in denial about the negative impacts of Brexit (and that currently includes the opposition). The best we can hope for is that the next two and a half years are bad enough for there to be a realisation amongst most that imposing sanctions on ourselves during a period of worldwide turmoil is really not a good idea and that when the twats get voted out in 2024/5 the opposition are not constrained by the same self imposed handicaps to recovery. It really doesn't matter who gets to be leader as long as it's not an out and out culture warrior that could poison politics for a generation if we're not there already.

 

[Gabriel]

I had in mind that 2024 was election year, but I see it can be January 2025. I'd thought there was a 5 year maximum between elections, and not 5 years to dissolution. +25 days.

I didn't mean that anyone would think of calling an election this year - just whether they are thinking of winning now amongst members, or the choice being reasonable for the general election.

I also expect the stop Sunak campaign to hit. Just depends when, and who each bit of the media back.

I would imagine a few might have an eye on the general electorate but most will be tailoring their message for the Gin and Telegraph voters.

 

[Brewster's millions]

I do think that this is a genuinely interesting leadership contest and at the moment it seems genuinely difficult to call. For starters there is no clear favourite, each candidate has obvious weaknesses and given the disparate nature of Tory MPs at the moment, it’s difficult to see a single, unity candidate emerging. The fact that Jeremy Hunt has chosen McVey as his running partner shows just how nutty things are.

I think the odds could swing pretty significantly after each round of voting - maybe someone like Tugendhat will come to the fore if he can make it through the first couple of rounds.

 

[Gabriel]

I do think that this is a genuinely interesting leadership contest and at the moment it seems genuinely difficult to call. For starters there is no clear favourite, each candidate has obvious weaknesses and given the disparate nature of Tory MPs at the moment, it’s difficult to see a single, unity candidate emerging. The fact that Jeremy Hunt has chosen McVey as his running partner shows just how nutty things are.

I think the odds could swing pretty significantly after each round of voting - maybe someone like Tugendhat will come to the fore if he can make it through the first couple of rounds.

If the threshold rules are changed as reported, then Tugendhat could be out before it begins, and while Sunak is apparently in the lead at the moment, that will change once the cutting tax brigade unite behind one candidate. It is interesting in terms of politics but uninteresting in terms of policy.

One thing I find comical is the number of them who will not say what their policies actually are. They talk vaguely about values and how they will lead but use the ‘I can’t be expected to say at this stage’ defence when grilled on what they’ll cut. That’s okay for the opposition mid-term but not for the person wishing to lead the country in a few weeks.

 

[117 M34]

Should get all the candidates on a stage and give all the voters an electronic voting device.
Ant and Dec can then announce who has been eliminated one at a time in a similar style to that stupid jungle programme.
Make some entertainment out of it.

 

[Onholiday(somemightsay)]

Sunak/Javid/Mourdant openly anti LGBTQ

So I assume Sunak and Javids issue is on religious grounds - Mourdant's angle on it?

 

[Onholiday(somemightsay)]

Expect the next few weeks of them all slagging each other off. Then when the winner hands out the prizes of chancellor, Home Secretary and foreign secretary to the losers the back tracking will happen.

'Twas all a bit of high jinks and horse play - the newly appointed PM has my full backing'..........

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Can't see any of them making a substantive difference to the performance of the economy as long as they are forced for political reasons to remain in denial about the negative impacts of Brexit (and that currently includes the opposition). The best we can hope for is that the next two and a half years are bad enough for there to be a realisation amongst most that imposing sanctions on ourselves during a period of worldwide turmoil is really not a good idea and that when the twats get voted out in 2024/5 the opposition are not constrained by the same self imposed handicaps to recovery. It really doesn't matter who gets to be leader as long as it's not an out and out culture warrior that could poison politics for a generation if we're not there already.

This is where someone with brains should be grasping the nettle and explaining how they would make brexit work. What will they do with Northern Ireland in a way that we don’t break international law and piss off the EU and the yanks off? What will they do to cut red tape for exporting? How will they mend relationships with the Eu and what will our future trading relationship be?

Not even Labour will talk about access to the single market so don’t think any of this lot will be floating that boat. I would imagine only the likes of Jeremy Hunt would talk about the fuck up of brexit, then he would then risk upsetting MPs who would vote him out of the running or the Tory members if he got to the final two.