Why we will win the league!

[blue b4 the moon]

why we will win the league?




.......Each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

stats from here https://experimental361.com/2019/03/10/e-ratings-update-premier-league-10-mar-2019/

Sadly I think the rags are nailed on for top 4 but in this table it looks like they have less chance than a dipper title.

Too many twists & turns in games for these sort of stats.

 

[aguero93:20]

Sadly I think the rags are nailed on for top 4 but in this table it looks like they have less chance than a dipper title.

Too many twists & turns in games for these sort of stats.

It's done on ExG, the rags results under rentboy have been very fortunate so unless that luck keeps up they'll struggle.

One thing the above table doesn't take into account afaik is the FA Cup/CL fixture congestion and it's likely effect on performance.

 

[Roachy]

Sadly I think the rags are nailed on for top 4 but in this table it looks like they have less chance than a dipper title.

Too many twists & turns in games for these sort of stats.

My main concern is that one dropped bollock from us will let them back in. I would love a bit of daylight between us and the scouse morons.

 

[Father Paul]

why we will win the league?




.......Each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

stats from here https://experimental361.com/2019/03/10/e-ratings-update-premier-league-10-mar-2019/

I would give the Dippers a bit more of a chance. I would suggest that progress in Europe may well be the telling factor. The further you go into the CL the harder it will be to pick up 3 points the following weekend. Up to now both sides faced the same difficulties this may all change over the next couple of days. If we go out of Europe and they get to the Final again can't see us not winning the league.

 

[Thomas Hearns]

I would give the Dippers a bit more of a chance. I would suggest that progress in Europe may well be the telling factor. The further you go into the CL the harder it will be to pick up 3 points the following weekend. Up to now both sides faced the same difficulties this may all change over the next couple of days. If we go out of Europe and they get to the Final again can't see us not winning the league.

Our fixtures aren't so bad in and around the CL dates.

Palace (A) sandwiched between QF 1st and 2nd legs is on the Sunday so we have at least 4 days rest.

Spurs (H) after QF 2nd leg - depends on the scheduling but chances are we have same rest or more rest than them

Burnley (A) the Sunday before SF 1st leg is only problematic if UEFA schedule us for Tues SF slot.

Leicester (H) and Brighton (A) either side of the SF 2nd leg are good fixtures

Still it would be nice if the scousers get through and draw the rags in the QF

 

[Deleted member 81382]

I'll be honest, I wanted Liverpool to go out of the Champions League but at least they'll have less recovery time between league games now. Hopefully that leads to them dropping a few more points.

 

[MAG]

I'll be honest, I wanted Liverpool to go out of the Champions League but at least they'll have less recovery time between league games now. Hopefully that leads to them dropping a few more points.

Why are you worried about them? Had they gotten out, they’d have dropped points in the league because they’d be sitting on their arses all week and watching tv while big boys play mid week in CL big games ... and then having only the league to play for, that one game at the end of the week with all the pressure on that alone would have wrecked them mentally ...

Now that they have those mid week games ... they won’t know what to do with what ... how to balance it out with their limited one dimensional play and which excuses to give out in PL and which in CL post-match, can’t use the same for both ...

See they drop points either way ... simples ;)

I see them out of title race when we’ll hit the crunch games towards the last 3-4 league games to go ... and we’d be winning it BEFORE the final round of league games! Now relax :)

 

[Inter Me Nan]

Why are you worried about them? Had they gotten out, they’d have dropped points in the league because they’d be sitting on their arses all week and watching tv while big boys play mid week in CL big games ... and then having only the league to play for, that one game at the end of the week with all the pressure on that alone would have wrecked them mentally ...

Now that they have those mid week games ... they won’t know what to do with what ... how to balance it out with their limited one dimensional play and which excuses to give out in PL and which in CL post-match, can’t use the same for both ...

See they drop points either way ... simples ;)

I see them out of title race when we’ll hit the crunch games towards the last 3-4 league games to go ... and we’d be winning it BEFORE the final round of league games! Now relax :)

I'm now convinced you're using some kind of jedi mind trick.

 

[Cobwebcat]

For once I’m glad Liverpool won.

Knocked out a good team and now we only have the FA Cup difference and we should cope with our QF Against Swansea no bother.

 

[MAG]

This should give you all (some more) confidence ... City top, Liverpool bottom ... when it comes to business end (last 8 games of the season, over last four PL seasons)!!