Will the United States survive the 21st century?

[Homar]

China is a geopolitical threat but not an obvious physical one. Their influence is subtly different to the US starting with the fact that China doesn't even need a military to exert it.

We may have rockets but it's a bit pointless when your rival has learnt it can counter that by becoming the sole supplier of rocket fuel. This is what is happening in the American economy and it's something dumbo Trump hates.

Look at the biggest US company in Apple, despite hundreds of billions in the bank they still can't build an iPhone without Chinese manufacturers.

I agree with much of this. China does have a modern military though, and it will certainly build out its military capabilities over the next decades. But I don’t see China engaging in the kind of military adventurism that has defined the United States. They may look to bring Hong Kong under closer control and they may even look at Taiwan. However, I can’t see China sweeping a path of destruction through the Middle East or putting themselves on a warpath with Europe.

It is far more likely that China will continue to build economic ties with Africa, Europe and the Middle East. They’ll continue to build on the belt and road initiative. A lot of countries may even benefit from the investment that China is prepared to make in their infrastructure. For the US, this will mean a gradual diminishing of their power and influence. We are certainly moving towards a multi-polar world.

 

[paska]

It was north v south because the west coast was still largely unsettled, it would be a bit messier now.

Just add the West Coast to the "North", and you've got the picture

 

[paska]

Their collective defense [sic] strength must be a big factor, plus it’s a hugely difficult undertaking to secede. I think if things continue along the same path, and further schisms open up over the Second Amendment (which seems inevitable) certain States will eventually say ‘fuck it’. Don’t think it’s remotely imminent, hence the timescale I provided in the OP, but, to me, it has a certain inevitability about it.

Nothing last for ever, I guess.

Another factor is that, whatever their differences, these two disparate groups are bound by the same all-pervasive culture, with emphasis on cult... The flag is considered almost akin to a god, by both sides, and all the cultural institutions along with it. USA! USA! USA~!

 

[RadcliffeRick]

I agree with much of this. China does have a modern military though, and it will certainly build out its military capabilities over the next decades. But I don’t see China engaging in the kind of military adventurism that has defined the United States. They may look to bring Hong Kong under closer control and they may even look at Taiwan. However, I can’t see China sweeping a path of destruction through the Middle East or putting themselves on a warpath with Europe.

It is far more likely that China will continue to build economic ties with Africa, Europe and the Middle East. They’ll continue to build on the belt and road initiative. A lot of countries may even benefit from the investment that China is prepared to make in their infrastructure. For the US, this will mean a gradual diminishing of their power and influence. We are certainly moving towards a multi-polar world.

Have a read up on what China is doing in the South China Sea. That will eventually end up a conflict zone pulling in a number of countries

 

[Homar]

Have a read up on what China is doing in the South China Sea. That will eventually end up a conflict zone pulling in a number of countries

It’s a border dispute. Nearly all the countries in the region lay claim to the islands there. It’s far from the only region with border disputes. So far, it remains mostly peaceful, and I hope it stays that way. How do you think the United States would behave given similar circumstances? A look towards South America might provide clues...

 

[Ancoats blue]

Stop worrying Gordon .... the United States won't be going anywhere in your lifetime .... it doesn't matter how divided its states are!

 

[RadcliffeRick]

It’s a border dispute. Nearly all the countries in the region lay claim to the islands there. It’s far from the only region with border disputes. So far, it remains mostly peaceful, and I hope it stays that way. How do you think the United States would behave given similar circumstances? A look towards South America might provide clues...

It is a lot more than that and it will end in confrontation. China laying claim to the area marked by the 9 dashes is not a boarder dispute it is a blatant "land grab"

 

[Homar]

It is a lot more than that and it will end in confrontation. China laying claim to the area marked by the 9 dashes is not a boarder dispute it is a blatant "land grab"

That is how every country sees border disputes. The best solution is a diplomatic one. Right now the only country that looks to want to escalate is the United States, which is yet again poking its nose where it has no business.

Again, how do you think the US would behave in similar circumstances? My best guess is that they would persue and enforce their claims with overwhelming military aggression. They are currently illegally occupying Syria, an area that they have no legitimate claim to, and selling Syrian oil to fund their occupation.

If China go on a rampage across the world and kill millions of people then I’ll criticise them just as much as I do the US. As of now, their oppression is mostly internal and far less threatening to the rest of the world. As their economic power increases, they may take a page out of the United States’ playbook and start imposing crippling sanctions on states with which they disagree. I find this far more credible than the chances of them waging war with all their neighbours.

 

[Bill Walker]

I agree with much of this. China does have a modern military though, and it will certainly build out its military capabilities over the next decades. But I don’t see China engaging in the kind of military adventurism that has defined the United States. They may look to bring Hong Kong under closer control and they may even look at Taiwan. However, I can’t see China sweeping a path of destruction through the Middle East or putting themselves on a warpath with Europe.

It is far more likely that China will continue to build economic ties with Africa, Europe and the Middle East. They’ll continue to build on the belt and road initiative. A lot of countries may even benefit from the investment that China is prepared to make in their infrastructure. For the US, this will mean a gradual diminishing of their power and influence. We are certainly moving towards a multi-polar world.

I see things quite a bit differently than you as regards China.

 

[Bill Walker]

It is a lot more than that and it will end in confrontation. China laying claim to the area marked by the 9 dashes is not a boarder dispute it is a blatant "land grab"

Fully agree with this.
The Chinese are acting like flat out bullies locally, they're even bullying us now, threatening Australia with all kinds of economic hurt.
They've basically banned our beef, cotton, wine, advised students not to study here etc etc.
Militarily threatening Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea.