Westminster voting intentions weekly round up

[BobKowalski]

A boris bounce, mainly at the Brexit Party expence, still bar one poll it's still too close to call on 3 with yougov showing a gap.

Thought there would be a bigger bounce. May was killing it in her first few months. Most popular politician in Britain with a +12% favourability rating was our Theresa.

 

[west didsblue]

Did you sleep through the EU election?

Nope. That was the result of the EU election as well as far as the popular vote went.
The BXP just ended up with the biggest share, won the most seats and therefore won the election. They only got 30% or so of the vote though.

 

[west didsblue]

Lib Dem’s green I’ll give you brexit party speaks for itself. How are you splitting the cons and labour in this fantasy poll of yours?

I’m not. Tories Leave and Labour Remain. The ones that don’t fit this generalisation probably roughly cancel each other out. Just my opinion.

 

[hilts]

I’m not. Tories Leave and Labour Remain. The ones that don’t fit this generalisation probably roughly cancel each other out. Just my opinion.

So pure guesswork based on..... wait for it..... the need for remain to be slightly ahead

Tories leave labour remain ffs

 

[Vic]

So pure guesswork based on..... wait for it..... the need for remain to be slightly ahead

Tories leave labour remain ffs

It's not guesswork.

Ashcroft reckoned 58% of Conservative voters voted Leave and 63% of Labour voters voted Remain. Other pollsters came up with similar results.

It's probably not wise to divert the thread (and it was all gone through three years ago) because individuals will say "that's not why I voted" but the most depressing is that most Leave voters reckoned life was better 30 years ago and would be worse in the future. Pity they voted to make it so.

It's all there though. Most Remainers think immigration and multiculturalism are beneficial, most Leavers don't. Remainers more likely to identify as British, more Leavers as English (not sure what he asked in other bits of the Union but it perhaps explains why so few Leavers seem bothered about breaking up the Union).

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/a-reminder-of-how-britain-voted-in-the-eu-referendum-and-why/

 

[Rascal]

Remainers more likely to identify as British, more Leavers as English (not sure what he asked in other bits of the Union but it perhaps explains why so few Leavers seem bothered about breaking up the Union).

Fintan O'Toole's book "heroic failures" explains this superbly. Its the rise of English Nationalism and the adage of exceptionalism.

You can also find a lecture of his on YT on the subject that is worth a look if you are interested.

 

[urban genie]

Poll from yesterday



Poll from friday




Welsh assenbly intentions

 

[cibaman]

Poll from yesterday



Poll from friday




Welsh assenbly intentions

It’s fair to say, the polls could be described as volatile

 

[bluethrunthru]

It’s fair to say, the polls could be described as volatile

There is only one that matters. There is only one party running away from one - not calling for one

 

[cibaman]

There is only one that matters. There is only one party running away from one - not calling for one

I think that could change fairly soon

 

[urban genie]

With al lthis GE talk threqad update





These top two are with 31st Oct leave/extention scenarios

 

[west didsblue]

With al lthis GE talk threqad update





These top two are with 31st Oct leave/extention scenarios

These seem to reinforce what I’ve been saying that Con + BXP doesn’t really vary by much and has a ceiling of about 47%. It suggests that the Cummings strategy is to transfer as many BXP votes to the Tories as possible by Johnson behaving like he’s living in 1939 and he’s trying to face down the Germans. Hence the WW2 rhetoric.
And that’s the whole strategy.
The only problem is that it might just work as it seems to trigger the latent xenophobia that is present in many of the population.

 

[mcfc1632]

Well if Farage is convinced that Johnson will absolutely do a clean break and therefore only campaigns in seats where the Conservatives are not strong and the Remain vote gets split between Labour and LibDems then the there could be real and lasting benefit for the UK

 

[lancs blue]

Maybe Swinson's policy of revoke isn't as daft as some think? IPSOS MORI poll from the Evening Standard.

 

[mcfc1632]

Not really given too much consideration to that poll, but am I not right to think that the results confirm the view that there is a real potential for a lot of marginals to fall to the Tories due to a split of the rest of the vote between Labour and LibDems?

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Not really given too much consideration to that poll, but am I not right to think that the results confirm the view that there is a real potential for a lot of marginals to fall to the Tories due to a split of the rest of the vote between Labour and LibDems?

Don't think so. There are big moves afoot in the Labour Party to oust remainers, Diane Johnson in Hull, Watson the Labour deputy etc. Will not be surprised if there are moves at the Labour conference to support leave.

 

[mcfc1632]

In other threads there seems to be quite a bit of reference to recent polls - Just wondering if there is any recent data on this?

 

[hilts]

In other threads there seems to be quite a bit of reference to recent polls - Just wondering if there is any recent data on this?

Don’t trust the you gov ones they seem quite biased to the Tories, in fact best not to trust any polls.

 

[hgblue]

In other threads there seems to be quite a bit of reference to recent polls - Just wondering if there is any recent data on this?

Lol, rest assured that if this thread is quiet the Tories must be doing well.....

 

[Ric]

Lol, rest assured that if this thread is quiet the Tories must be doing well.....

Not really. It’s always been a relatively quiet thread.