Another new Brexit thread

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Chippy_boy said:
He must be trying to get a deal. He cannot possibly be relying on some convoluted tricks to exit without one by Oct 31, since the chances of that are pretty slim to nil and he could find himself in contempt of court, being dismissed as PM and God knows what else. Vs come back with a deal and he's a hero. He'd be insane to not be pursing a deal as his massively preferred course of action, and he is not insane.
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Well, we'll find out soon. It's near impossible trying to suss out what the hell is going on, but i suspect that is cummings' strategy, he's a big fan of chaos.
 
If Johnson did bring a deal back and put it to a vote, could the vote be subject to a binding amendment tagging on a confirmatory referendum? And is it remotely possible that the amendment would pass? If there is a any chance of that happening then Johnson just wouldn’t put a deal to a vote.
 
cibaman said:
If Johnson did bring a deal back and put it to a vote, could the vote be subject to a binding amendment tagging on a confirmatory referendum? And is it remotely possible that the amendment would pass? If there is a any chance of that happening then Johnson just wouldn’t put a deal to a vote.
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If MPs were mindful to support whatever deal may or may not emerge before Oct 31, there's not need for a confirmatory vote and I don't see either main party supporting calls for one.
 
Chippy_boy said:
If MPs were mindful to support whatever deal may or may not emerge before Oct 31, there's not need for a confirmatory vote and I don't see either main party supporting calls for one.
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Can you really see him bringing back a deal that has the support of Labour or any opposition party that wouldn't break the tories, or his no backstop credibility?
 
Reading the last few pages, the hair-splitting the what-ifs, the conjecture the complexities the total lack of any plan that has a cat in hells chance of a mutually satisfying end to the backstop/gfa and the fact that the brexit powermongers are dead set against any deal and any deal will be worse than the one we have.....the shit keeps getting deeper. Cast off and stsrt again is the only solution...
 
blueparrot said:
Can you really see him bringing back a deal that has the support of Labour or any opposition party that wouldn't break the tories, or his no backstop credibility?
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This has been discussed already.

I absolutely can see him bring back a deal, since his career is depending upon it. The $64,000 question is what would happen if he does?

There's lots of conflicting dynamics here:
  • Does it involve something unpalatable to the DUP, which would rule out their support? My guess is probably yes.
  • Would the ERG rather get some kind of Brexit rather than risk no Brexit at all, and worse, a Corbyn government? The previous answer to that has in the main been no, but even with the May deal, people were starting to come around to supporting it. And that was months ago. People are even more tired of it now and the threat of Corbyn is more tangible.
  • What do Labour MPs think would be there chances of re-election if they are the ones blocking a Brexit deal their constituencies voted for?
 
Chippy_boy said:
If MPs were mindful to support whatever deal may or may not emerge before Oct 31, there's not need for a confirmatory vote and I don't see either main party supporting calls for one.
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I don’t think there’s much chance of Labour, Lib Dem’s, SNP, Change, Plaid, Green’s voting for a deal unless there is a confirmatory referendum. Some Labour MPs might defy the whip and vote for a deal without a referendum but not many. Not sure how the independent tories would vote.

I think it’s unlikely that an amendment to tag on a confirmatory referendum would pass. But, unless it’s 100% certain that it wouldn’t, Johnson’s not going to put a vote to parliament.
 
Chippy_boy said:
This has been discussed already.

I absolutely can see him bring back a deal, since his career is depending upon it. The $64,000 question is what would happen if he does?

There's lots of conflicting dynamics here:
  • Does it involve something unpalatable to the DUP, which would rule out their support? My guess is probably yes.
  • Would the ERG rather get some kind of Brexit rather than risk no Brexit at all, and worse, a Corbyn government? The previous answer to that has in the main been no, but even with the May deal, people were starting to come around to supporting it. And that was months ago. People are even more tired of it now and the threat of Corbyn is more tangible.
  • What do Labour MPs think would be there chances of re-election if they are the ones blocking a Brexit deal their constituencies voted for?
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Why bother about the DUP? They no longer hold the balance of power in Westminster, and don't represent majority opinion in NI.

"No deal" (in the sense that nothing happens by 31 October) and the ERG might be more worried about Corbyn. But I doubt enough would now give up their "No Deal" (in the sense of leaving the EU without a deal) to get through any deal without Labour support. Of course, just as in theory the EU need the threat of "No Deal" (in sense 2) to give us a "better" deal, so the legal removal of "No Deal" means the threat of then losing votes to the BP makes the ERG more likely to vote for a deal. But too many of them are now wedded to dying in the same ditch as Johnson (and if his sister is right, their backers expect no less).

Labour MPs in Leave-voting constituencies know that only in a few is there a majority in their core support for Brexit, and they've already lost the Leave voters who don't vote Labour - but could yet pick up Remain voters who wouldn't normally vote Labour. In the vast majority of Labour-held consituencies, their voters voted Remain, and the risk of losing them is a concern to those MPs, and they outnumber the MPs in the first category. The Corbyn stance - get a better deal then see how we go (though deriving from an original idea by Johnson) - may just mean that whatever happens at the special conference to decide "how we go" Labour will just be sitting on a bigger fence with further to fall.
 
mcfc1632 said:
The only democratically valid options would be May's deal (or a re-hash of that) and no-deal IMO

Any referendum with Remain as an option is a vote being rigged
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Nice try, but get real. In any case, you'd rather Remain than have May's deal.

A rigged referendum would be:

Do you want your leg amputated? Vote Remain if you want to keep it, vote Leave if you want to leave it attached to your leg.
 
Ban-jani said:
Genuinely I hope you are right and he gets a deal, for the good of the country but I just can’t see it.

I don’t think he has enough time left and the noise out of the EU is that he hasn’t even proposed an alternative.

I also believe that his backers want a no deal, as his sister has said.

I think he’s drumming up the feeling of Parliament vs the people in the knowledge we’ll still be in after the 31st and it’ll be parliaments fault.
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"For the good of the country" is hardly a given. A deal doesn't end anything, so why would it be good for the country? It certainly doesn't end the pain of amputation.
 
Chippy_boy said:
This has been discussed already.

I absolutely can see him bring back a deal, since his career is depending upon it. The $64,000 question is what would happen if he does?

There's lots of conflicting dynamics here:
  • Does it involve something unpalatable to the DUP, which would rule out their support? My guess is probably yes.
  • Would the ERG rather get some kind of Brexit rather than risk no Brexit at all, and worse, a Corbyn government? The previous answer to that has in the main been no, but even with the May deal, people were starting to come around to supporting it. And that was months ago. People are even more tired of it now and the threat of Corbyn is more tangible.
  • What do Labour MPs think would be there chances of re-election if they are the ones blocking a Brexit deal their constituencies voted for?
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And lo there is a deal. And it shall pass.

But then we have to debate and vote on the European Withdrawal Act which passes the vote to ratify into law. Pages of provisions to be debated, amended and voted down. Plenty of opportunity to play silly buggers on all sides. Agreeing to the deal is great (if in my view unlikely) but it’s only an agreement to go to the next stage. Because unless the Act is passed the vote to proceed ain’t worth much. And if the vote to ratify is carried by one or two votes the Act itself is going to get torn to shreds.

But say we have an GE in between the vote to ratify and passing the Act? The Tories run on the deal as is. Labour to run on the deal with amendments Tories don’t like. Workers rights. Environment. 32 hour week. LibDems to sack the deal off and remain. Ditto the SNP. DUP hate the deal and everyone on all sides of the House. And we end up with a hung Parliament. A Parliament that is not bound by the previous Parliament ratifying the deal let alone passing the Act. And what are the odds on the Tories being united on the deal anyway?

The one thing I will guarantee you is that deal or no deal. There will be an extension to A50 on 31st October.
 
Chippy_boy said:
The withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation, our expectations and our hope is that this dialogue will conclude with a positive result, which will allow us at last to have a positive majority emerge with regard to this withdrawal agreement.

– Michel Barnier

Reuters 5 months ago
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Spet 2nd.

“I am not optimistic about avoiding a 'no deal' scenario but I remain determined to explore all avenues that the UK government will present that are compatible with the withdrawal agreement,” Barnier added.

The EU negotiator also said discussions about alternatives to the backstop could not begin until Britain had approved the divorce deal struck with Johnson's predecessor Theresa May late last year.

It was subsequently rejected three times by British MPs, leading Brexit to be delayed to Oct 31. “We are ready to start this work immediately upon ratification of the withdrawal agreement, in parallel to finally creating clarity on our future relationship,” Barnier stated.


Barnier told diplomats for the EU27 last week that the UK had “given up on the concept of preventing a border in Northern Ireland as well as the necessity of preserving the all-island economy”.

18 Sept


Michel Barnier, who was addressing the EU Parliament on Wednesday morning, said the UK had failed to provide any "legally operative" solutions to the backstop following a meeting with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in Luxembourg this week.

"The new UK government in Luxembourg this week outlined the aspects of the backstop which they don't like," Barnier told fellow MEPs.

"That's not enough, however, to move towards achieving a solution: We need a legally operative solution in the withdrawal agreement which [...] which addresses each one of the risks created by Brexit."

He added: "Almost three years after the UK referendum, I don't think that we should be spending time pretending to negotiate."


28 Sept.

He told the diplomats: “You can’t base peace on promises – it will turn the border into a bargaining chip.”

The EU’s capitals, in response, have expressed their “alarm” to Barnier at the prime minister’s “cavalier” attitude towards the Northern Ireland peace process.

Johnson’s discussions in New York with Donald Tusk, the European Council president, have led the member states to conclude that there is a “deliberate choice in London to bring back a border”, which would “imperil stability”, sources said.

Barnier also rejected Barclay’s attempts last Friday to open up talks about contingency plans in the event of a no-deal Brexit., to the British government’s notable frustration, sources said.

The Brexit secretary had insisted that on his visits to EU capitals, a desire had been voiced for bilateral talks on how to manage the risks of leaving the EU without a deal.

The EU negotiator told the member states that the UK was looking to deliver the same benefits of the withdrawal agreement “but by different means”.

In a letter exchange with Barclay, published last Friday evening, Barnier told the Brexit secretary: “We will not enter into any negotiations with the United Kingdom on these matters.” He said the only offer he could make to the UK was to answer any specific questions it had over the EU’s unilateral plans to protect itself from the chaos.

Desn't sound like much of a 'reopening' does it ?
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
That’s for the people of Scotland really. Unless you are wanting an England Indy ref from the uk, which I doubt there would be too much support.

However if the people of Scotland voted to leave, bah humbug.

It would be very complicated though and not easy and whilst I would welcome not listening to the snp’s Hatred of the English normalised as it is at the moment, I really want less political turmoil in all our lives if I am honest so I hope they don’t have a ref anytime soon.
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If we get to genuinely leave the EU a couple of years before indyref2 you will get your wish - I cannot see how Scotland would vote for the that having already left the EU - be great fun though being part of the UK negotiating team as we draft a WA before allowing any consideration of the future relationship
 
mcfc1632 said:
The problem with this chat you have been having with BJ is that he speaks as if 'he represents the Remain view'.

@Ban-jani - this is no meant as a criticism - but there are so many posts from you recently stating how you would accept a deal etc. and you seem to think that this should be a 'line drawn' with regard to how Leavers should view the Remain position.

Sorry - you are not the collective Remain position - most Leaver posts are in response to more 'extreme' Remainers such as @Neville Kneville - so you keep posting as if you are representative is meaningless
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But I have said I will accept May's deal & be totally happy with a 'Norway' deal.

So why are you mentioning me as 'the problem' or indeed any remainers ?

It would not be the majority of 'remainers' voting against a Norway option in Parliament, it would be the whole Conservative party plus the DUP.

It's about time you lot stopped telling lies & admitted, that it's your own side, who would be going fucking mental, if we left on those terms, not us.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Right oh.

EDIT, and BTW why did "his ERG backers" such as JRM vote FOR the May deal then?

You need to stop with the conspiracy theories mate, it's not doing anything for your peace of mind.
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He voted against it more times than he voted for it.
In my opinion it was expedient for him and Johnson to vote for it at the third time of asking when they knew there was no chance of it going through. It was a means of getting their hands on the leadership of the Tory Party by pretending they were Tory loyalists.
 
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