Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

he has

Of course - but that us pure distraction in this context

Because he's also been saying that the WA will not be reopened - that Johnson's and his team were not genuinely negotiating

So he has been clearly and indisputably wrong about those things

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

We don’t move on. All we do is move into the second phase and an automatic 14 month transition period where nothing changes but we enter into a fresh round of negotiations which will be largely taken up with working out how these new arrangements in NI will apply, the administration of these new arrangements and how it effects firms and trading between NI and GB. For example a NI firm will have full access to the GB market but a Scottish firm selling into NI will be potentially subject to tariffs so the next 14 months will be spent ironing out these kinks and to iron out these kinks will require a close alignment to EU rules, regs and standards etc for us all otherwise NI becomes even more detached from our Union and that will trigger protest from Unionists in NI.

But if we are not seeking to diverge what is the purpose of Brexit will be the the Brexiteers argument so again we will have various factions, interests and countries in our Union fighting their corner and the political divisions will widen because as we have seen with the second ‘deal’ with the EU someone has to get shat on for a deal to happen and this week it was the DUP’s turn.

So again with a 14 month time limit we have a self imposed deadline in which to sort out our future relationship and the new arrangements in NI which isn’t happening as the last three years will tell you and we are back to the do we take up the extension options and continue being de facto EU members or do we no deal after all except this time we have committed to these new arrangements in NI and will break the Withdrawal Treaty Agreement and leave NI in the lurch but this time we will have the Nationalist community pissed at us having spent 14 months pissing off the hardcore Unionist community and makes our commitment to letting NI ‘decide its future’ looking a bit hollow.

For people who think the temporary backstop was a ‘trap’ then how do you figure permanent arrangements for one country in our Union is going to feel like?

And your answer is Bob?

 

[BobKowalski]

Slight drift towards the deal being approved now. 8/11 for the deal to pass, evens for it to be rejected.

I suspect it'll pass by the slimmest of margins.

Pass in principle subject to passing the European Withdrawal Bill which gives the deal to leave legal force. Effectively the Commons should legislate to see exactly what we are signing up to before giving full consent with the Benn Act amended to cater for this.

I understand there are moves afoot to do this.

 

[Rascal]

He also just said on Skynews 'even better let us negiotiate a proper Labour deal after we've won the GE and put that to the people in another referendum' the desperation is astonishing - what do they think about the intelligence of the British electorate?

I think the intelligence of the UK electorate is ok, the information provided to the electorate has been piss poor. It hasn't been helped by the lies and propaganda from both sides.

I am anti referendum though. I consider myself fairly well educated and quite knowledgeable on politics but BREXIT was far too complex for my understanding, another referendum will only add another layer of complexity to an already soaked field of stupidity.

 

[TheBlueDune]

We were already onto the contents ..... we knew they day before that they had gutted workers / environmental rights out of the WA .... (Its known as 'the level playing field') which means that getting anything like a FTA has no chance ..


Looks like we're being sold to the Yanks

Absolutely.
Next stop NHS.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think jeremy corbyn deserves credit for describing the revised deal as unacceptable ... before it had been released.

He's had 40 years of practice, so hardly surprising.

 

[BobKowalski]

And your answer is Bob?

Stop working under self imposed deadlines for starters. The EU weaponised Johnson’s need to leave by 31st Oct starting with the Merkel phone call that caused all the angst when she spelt out what was needed leading to the face to face with Varadkar. Seems the Leave EU poster was wrong. We did win two world wars to get ‘dictated to by a Kraut’.

What then is needed is a grown up debate about what we want out of Brexit, the exact point of all these much trumpeted ‘trade deals’, are we doing all this as Union - in which case we need consensus - or as England in which case let’s stop pretending that we have a Union.

The alternative is just continuing this shitshow where we arse about bickering for months and then end up selling NI to the EU on transfer deadline day.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Bold prediction, it's going to pass or fail by 1 vote tomorrow

 

[bluethrunthru]

Ha - there you go - typical Remainer ranting without thinking it through

You are jumping in and making assumptions that my reference was to the way people voted in the referendum and / or I am calling people traitors

Utterly wrong - it had nothing to do with the referendum vote - so calm your fevered brow

Oh - and I will await your apology for that false assumption

enjoy your wait

 

[blueinsa]

Bold prediction, it's going to pass or fail by 1 vote tomorrow

My prediction is regardless Cherry and co will decide it needs to go to a Scottish court and it will drag on and on and on......

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

What then is needed is a grown up debate about what we want out of Brexit,

Im afraid this is where your argument will break down Bob? We both surely know that those in Westminster are only interested in whats in it for them!

 

[George Hannah]

We don’t move on. All we do is move into the second phase and an automatic 14 month transition period where nothing changes but we enter into a fresh round of negotiations which will be largely taken up with working out how these new arrangements in NI will apply, the administration of these new arrangements and how it effects firms and trading between NI and GB. For example a NI firm will have full access to the GB market but a Scottish firm selling into NI will be potentially subject to tariffs so the next 14 months will be spent ironing out these kinks and to iron out these kinks will require a close alignment to EU rules, regs and standards etc for us all otherwise NI becomes even more detached from our Union and that will trigger protest from Unionists in NI.

But if we are not seeking to diverge what is the purpose of Brexit will be the the Brexiteers argument so again we will have various factions, interests and countries in our Union fighting their corner and the political divisions will widen because as we have seen with the second ‘deal’ with the EU someone has to get shat on for a deal to happen and this week it was the DUP’s turn.

So again with a 14 month time limit we have a self imposed deadline in which to sort out our future relationship and the new arrangements in NI which isn’t happening as the last three years will tell you and we are back to the do we take up the extension options and continue being de facto EU members or do we no deal after all except this time we have committed to these new arrangements in NI and will break the Withdrawal Treaty Agreement and leave NI in the lurch but this time we will have the Nationalist community pissed at us having spent 14 months pissing off the hardcore Unionist community and makes our commitment to letting NI ‘decide its future’ looking a bit hollow.

For people who think the temporary backstop was a ‘trap’ then how do you figure permanent arrangements for one country in our Union is going to feel like?

If the vote is carried tomorrow we move on to the next stage as a third party country as far as the EU is concerned. The Remainers become Rejoiners with no route back except via the Eurozone. The no-deal consequences for a trade deal with the EU are moved forward by 14 months plus whatever extension is agreed but during that interval we are free to negotiate what other international deals we can allowing for 'most favourable etc' constraints and other impediments.

The separatists are toast because their basic premise of economically self-sustaining independence is fatally undermined, Catalonia tactics will not be supported. The EU is deeply wounded in economic terms unless they can persuade the richer countries to support the euro - Merkel has already said the German nett contribution will be revised down when we leave. Politically, their federal objectives will be seen to have been frustrated by other member states and those who do not share them will be encouraged.

The DUP's denial of a simple democratic control over their participation does not represent the best future for NI, a united Ireland is demographically inevitable within a decade and this reality is reflected in the proposed deal. NI inside the UK customs territory for existing trade and new deals alongside seamless access to the EU is very important for them economically. The AG has actually issued a statement that the principle of community consent is enshrined in the new withdrawal treaty apparently.

The result is too close to call though.

 

[meltonblue]

I think the intelligence of the UK electorate is ok, the information provided to the electorate has been piss poor. It hasn't been helped by the lies and propaganda from both sides.

I am anti referendum though. I consider myself fairly well educated and quite knowledgeable on politics but BREXIT was far too complex for my understanding, another referendum will only add another layer of complexity to an already soaked field of stupidity.

To me, it's always been about what price people are willing to pay for it. I don't think anyone needed to be that knowledgeable about politics or the intricacies of trade deals and the like to know that as soon as leave won the referendum, there was going to be a big upheaval as a consequence and years where the main political focus then wouldn't be about domestic issues but our international relationships.

For a lot of people, that was a price they believe was and is worth paying and I respect that. Even if this does get over the line tomorrow though, as much as people can say that the focus can then shift back to domestic policies, it won't, not for a long while yet.

Agree about referendums in general though, I do not think they are compatible with our current parliamentary set up. They only really work in countries who are more used to coalition governments (which is really what we needed our parliament to act like as soon as the referendum was over - a cross party agreed deal could have made this whole process far less painful and also lessened the societal impact a fair amount too).

The issue I have is we haven't learned that at all from this and I don't think we will do. This whole process to me hasn't just been about how discussions go with the EU and what it says about that relationship, it's also been about how our domestic discussions have been too and how mature we actually are as a nation and a populace. I'd argue as parliament and the electorate have become more polarised and divided, our maturity, our social intelligence and empathy have all reduced rather than increased and that worries me far more about the future than the consequences of Johnsons deal or our future relationship with the EU.

 

[west didsblue]

As this deal affects the status of NI within the UK, there should be a means of NI having a veto on whether it is accepted. Whether that’s a NI only referendum or whether it should need a majority of NI MPs to vote for it are the two options. The third option, Stormont, is unavailable at the moment. Either way there needs to be consent from NI for it to be legitimate. Without that consent it’s simply a solution imposed on part of the UK from Westminster which cannot be right.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Rees-Mogg speaks out -

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Bold prediction, it's going to pass or fail by 1 vote tomorrow

Fail by 20 to 40 is my prediction.

 

[BobKowalski]

Im afraid this is where your argument will break down Bob? We both surely know that those in Westminster are only interested in whats in it for them!

Thats bollocks. It’s just lazy nonsense. If it was all just about what’s in for them they would have passed this deal months ago and when the shit hit the fan just shrugged and said it what’s you voted for.

You have no idea some of the abuse and nonsense MPs put up with simply for trying to do their job to the best of their ability.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Fail by 20 to 40 is my prediction.

Passing is odds on tomorrow according to the bookies so I don't see it failing by that margin, we shall see though

 

[Blue Hefner]

“Get Brexit Done” must be the worst slogan since “Brexit means Brexit”

It will never be “done”. It needs to be treated as a process and not an event. Until that happens, which it won’t, we will be going around in circles

 

[dave_blue12]

Fail by 20 to 40 is my prediction.

Wish I shared your optimism.

It's an abomination which will put in motion negative changes to our country and the wider world which will last generations.