COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Ban-jani]

What about SIngapore, Hong Kong, South Korea?

I put it to you that this is what we should be trying to achieve:



Not this:

And what happens once the lockdown finishes?

I put it to you to explain what will happen in these countries when the virus is still present and everyone is allowed to go to work and to continue their lives?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

A question no-one is asking, and for which we have no answer is this: If someone gets really sick and needs intensive care, and they don't get intensive care, what are their chances?

It seems to me that this will be the situation for a lot of people who become critically ill. 5% of pretty much any conceivable projected number of cases is still way more than we have ICU facilities. Italy have double what we have, and are nowhere near their peak but are already overwhelmed.

This is what frightens me more than anything - that one of my loved ones may get seriously ill, and they may die because we have no capacity to treat them.

I think you know the answer to that. Without ITU, people who have bad pneumonia, will and do die. (Even with ITU, many of them die as well). I know the NHS has lots of faults but planning for stuff like this isn’t one of them. Pandemic flu planning and emergency preparedness are integral to every nhs organisation and is a huge strength of a single centralised health care system.
One of the challenges ITU’s currently have is that they’ve got many people in them now, nothing to do with Coronavirus. Meanwhile, people will keep crashing cars and being victims of fire and they will still need treating. All non-urgent elective operations will be cancelled, appointments will be cancelled or moved to ‘virtual’ via Skype or FaceTime type things, wherever possible. Cancer treatments will be largely unaffected initially but patients might well be treated at home, where that’s appropriate.
As for ITU beds, don’t believe everything you read. Whilst we do only have 4000 dedicated ITU beds, theatres, recovery areas and ward areas can and will be converted to ITU areas. This could we’ll increase ITU capacity by 4 or 5 times, although the number of intensivists and nurses available to work in those areas will obviously be the challenge.
Ultimately though, if all the beds are full and people are still turning up critically ill, very difficult decisions will need to be made I suppose. Hopefully, if that should come to pass, there will be clear and understandable guidance on ‘prioritisation’ and those decisions won’t be left to individual medics to make.

 

[BosnianBlue]

Because they’re specific to our country - the public and the health service.

That's not science then. Anyway, I just hope you won't get personally hit by this, I doubt you'd blindly support this inaction then.

 

[SWP's back]

It’s absolutely fucking ludicrous to think these experts aren’t worth their salt

Which ones.

 

[BlueHammer85]

just some boring personal advice - i used to suffer from mild colds and illness all the time - since i've gone for a run everyday (438 in a row) i haven't had anything. I think exercise is really important to help fight off infections and viruses

 

[Blue Hefner]

One of the clips I posted earlier. Rachel Maddow is very good. However, this stuff writes itself

 

[Ban-jani]

Which ones.

Those leading the government.

 

[SWP's back]

Man crush? Have you seen the bloke?

Swap the word man crush for me just thinking he’s doing the right thing in this scenario.

Generalised, past WHO statements isn’t what we should be basing our strategy on.

Past WHO statements? They’re from fucking yesterday.

 

[Ban-jani]

That's not science then. Anyway, I just hope you won't get personally hit by this, I doubt you'd blindly support this inaction then.

“That’s not science then” doesn’t even make sense.

I will be hit with it and the likelihood is I’ll know someone who will die. Everyone in the world likely will eventually.

What do you thinks going to happen in China when the lockdown is over?

 

[Ban-jani]

Past WHO statements? They’re from fucking yesterday.

Well fucking quote them then and give more detail.

 

[Daz_Blue]

Disney is shut down now ......... Sneezy has been diagnosed with the coronavirus .....

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Can you catch this and it not feel as bad as it can be ? By that I mean after Wembley on the way home I felt really unwell on the train, went straight to bed and stayed there for about 5 days. I would say I had about 80% of the symptoms. Didnt have a runny nose or sneezing.
I put it down to a bad cold perhaps flu. Still have a slight cough and feel abit tied still...

yes you can

 

[AlgarveBlu]

The celebrities, politicians and footballers are not being treated though. They are ‘staying at home and riding this one out’, which is exactly what they’re telling you.

I was referring to the actual policy change in recent days about self isolating for 7 days if you start to develop symptoms rather than call the number and schedule an appointment to get tested - is this not a step change from previous policy of calling 111 to get tested if you thought you has possibly contracted the virus?

Last thing I want to do is spread misinformation so sorry if I have misunderstood as there's enough of that about, but if that is the policy, how do you propose that there is any meaningful data on the number of people that have tested positive for the virus as we will only be left with data from persons that have developed a more serious illness and needs to be hospitalised? this is the point I was making about the release of the daily data that is released on positive infections becoming increasingly meaningless.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Disney is shut down now ......... Sneezy has been diagnosed with the coronavirus .....

sneezing is not a symptom of covid 19...

 

[Marvin]

I suspect it will bounce back when they relax their measures, unless there is a vaccine by then.

I know. That's the British scientific argument and it makes sense. However China's reservoir of virus is not bouncing back.

Suggests to me China's method is in fact the way to go, and then you manage it by social distancing, and massive testing thereafter until we have a vaccine. I hope we have the luxury as a society to make this choice but most likely the decision will get taken out of our hands like it was in Italy as the virus gets to 2,000 and doubles every 4 days or so.

There are not any countries who have high numbers of confirmed cases and low numbers of new cases. Once you are at ~ 2,000 confirmed cases it's going to run away (obviously there are differences between countries based on testing rates).

The biggest argument for a China approach is that society has the energy now to do it. If you wait and wait, you drain people

 

[Blue Hefner]

Clearly didn't wash their hands enough

 

[Ban-jani]

Some do. What should happen though is listen to as many experts as possible and then you can see the overall balance of opinion.

That would be (ironically) the scientific approach.

Absolutely. And it’s why we shouldn’t take the views of one guy, who’s been trotted out on every platform, to give his own opinion, as gospel.

We should also not take generalised advice, that’s being given to other countries, as the definite course of action we should be taking here.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

It would be a lot easier to simply accept it if the actions they are taking were not so strikingly at odds with those of all other major countries.

Are we blindly to accept that our lot are correct and everyone else's experts are necessarily wrong because they are not British?

It is strange isn’t it?

Are our scientists right and China, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Poland, Spain... are all wrong?

 

[PragueBlue]

The biggest argument for a China approach is that society has the energy now to do it. If you wait and wait, you drain people

Nobody is going to go the China route in Europe though. People will not just accept being welded into their homes. It will start again in China as soon as people deem it safe to visit again.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I was referring to the actual policy change in recent days about self isolating for 7 days if you start to develop symptoms rather than call the number and schedule an appointment to get tested - is this not a step change from previous policy of calling 111 to get tested if you thought you has possibly contracted the virus?

Last thing I want to do is spread misinformation so sorry if I have misunderstood as there's enough of that about, but if that is the policy, how do you propose that there is any meaningful data on the number of people that have tested positive for the virus as we will only be left with data from persons that have developed a more serious illness and needs to be hospitalised? this is the point I was making about the release of the daily data that is released on positive infections becoming increasingly meaningless.

The only relevant information though is how many people are ill enough to be admitted to hospital and how many of them go home. We will never know (in real time) how many people have it and how would being told you haven’t got it help? You might have the test and pick the virus up on the way home. Test comes back negative and you’re off down the pub. Best advice is, any symptoms stay at home.