COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Uffa said:
Seems really utopian but if true, the herd immunity strategy would look more unnecessary.
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It's not utopian. The source is pretty serious. This is the company (CureVac) that Trump is desperate to buy. Obviously, they are pretty close to offering a vaccine.
 
Merkel scheduled to be on telly tonight presumably to announce a lockdown. I guess we won’t be far behind which will bring us in line with the rest of Europe.
 
TCIB said:
avengers-endgame-1-1.jpg
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Oh.

Scarlet Johansson though!!
 
BobKowalski said:
Merkel scheduled to be on telly tonight presumably to announce a lockdown. I guess we won’t be far behind which will bring us in line with the rest of Europe.
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The more our neighbours do it the more we will.

I worry about people actually obeying and our police force being able to cope.

Patrolling hasn’t come natural since 1967 and we’ve got a lot of scrotes.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Yesterday the question of germany was asked at the select Committee meeting.
The only current theory from Germany is that the initial cohort all got it on skiing holidays. This demographic and their close contacts are considered to be young and physically healthy. So it spread initially through a low risk group. Hence initial low death rates. Only time will tell if this is correct.
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Sounds like bollocks to me (not that the skiing bit is untrue, merely that I cannot imagine that would explain a 15x difference, and certainly not when there's now 10k people infected in Germany, who presumably are now across a wide demographic). As you say, time will tell. If the death rate in Germany remains persistently low, we absolutely do need to figure out what they are doing differently.
 
Marvin said:
Have PHE decided on suppression or mitigation?

This is important because barring a significant mutation this defines where we are going with this.

Definitions:

R: The average number of secondary cases each case generates.
Suppression: Reduce R to below 1.
Mitigation: Reduce R but maintain above 1.

The option to take depends on vaccine production and ant-viral treatments. The latest news in that regards seems encouraging so the correct public health response should be to suppress this virus with every single measure available. We are not doing that. The isolation measures are voluntary. Schools remain open. How can they remain open? That's crazy because although it may not have a visible effect on children it spreads the virus through families and renders measures which parents make during their days almost useless. Keeping schools open whilst socially isolating risk groups would be a hallmark strategy for a mitigation effort.

I understand there are some drawbacks to closing schools such as losing key personnel but the bottom line is 'R'. That has to go down to below 1.

Why aren't we testing people with symptoms? The answer is because we do not have testing resources, and we do not have an incentive to do so because there is no forensic system in place to take that testing data and then follow-up contacts. Yet that is the most important defence strategy that a nation has. This is why is is the central WHO theme and yet none of the Western countries are doing this. Not a single one. That's because their health systems do no have the resources. Isn't that why we elect governments to allocate resources?
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I concur with this. Here in Spain they are obviously trying the first option, suppression.
As I understand it in maybe a month the numbers will be exponentially lower due to isolation of the entire population. Those who have had it, will no longer be infectious.

There will of course be some infected still in the community but by following the type of policies that Korea have they can be contained. And isolation will end.

International travel would in my opinion be daft as people coming from countries that have still got the disease could restart it.

Britain's approach seems neither one thing not the other. While people still go into work, go to the pub, schools remain open, infection rates will still be high.
 
Ban-jani said:
The more our neighbours do it the more we will.

I worry about people actually obeying and our police force being able to cope.

Patrolling hasn’t come natural since 1967 and we’ve got a lot of scrotes.
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so do I. So many cunts out there playing this down and thinking it’s ‘all a load of bollox’

they will do there upmost to keep this going by being ignorant twats.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Sounds like bollocks to me (not that the skiing bit is untrue, merely that I cannot imagine that would explain a 15x difference, and certainly not when there's now 10k people infected in Germany, who presumably are now across a wide demographic). As you say, time will tell. If the death rate in Germany remains persistently low, we absolutely do need to figure out what they are doing differently.
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I don't think it is bullshit, that's literally the reason why South Korea has such a low rate compared to Italy.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
so do I. So many cunts out there playing this down and thinking it’s ‘all a load of bollox’

they will do there upmost to keep this going by being ignorant twats.
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The public need to realise that if they go to the pub because they get bored, if they don't stay home when they or someone in their household has symptoms, they are killing people. It's that simple.
 
Unrelated to the above, I thought I would post some other thoughts...

We face two possible ways out of this mess right now. (A) A short, sharp shock, or (B) Less severe measures but over a longer period.

It seems clear to me that (A) is the best route forward at this point. If we clamp down *hard* now on unecessary movement, it will more effectively stop the numbers rising, and from a lower peak, they will fall back more quickly. We could be out of this phase and back into "containment" again - with life having a chance of vaguely returning to normal fairly quickly. The minimum numbers of businesses will have gone bust and the maximum numbers of people will be financially OK.

The alternative - the path we are on at the moment - is a mistake. Allowing people to go to pubs and to meet socially if they wish is stupid. It isn't going to keep any significant number of businesses going, because the numbers of people still going out is so low. All it does is means the clamp down will have to go on longer, because the peak numbers of infections (and dead people!) will be higher and reached later, and take longer to reduce back down. More businesses will be in trouble, more people tearing their hair out, feeling unable to go out. More people dead, and for what? So a small minority can act irresponsibly? Why???

We need to lock down HARD, right now. Troops in the streets, the full works. Only trips to supermarket or pharmacy or food drop offs to relatives allowed. If we do this, we can have this under control in only a few weeks. If not, it will drag on for months and months.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
I read the article in full.

"may be able"
So may many other companies if they bypass clinical trials. The results of such a vaccine "may" be a bigger risk than the virus itself. Hence the reason for proper trials.
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There is a reason why Trump wants to buy them and risks a conflict with Germany and the EU.
 
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Gelsons Dad said:
not sure where you are getting your data but i think it may be suspect.

Note that South Korea has had a small localised outbreak ramping up their figure.
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I did see it on some news sites but if you go by world mete they are these, going back by days for a few days.

13
21
16
20

so thats really not bad assuming trustworthy
 
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