COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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grunge said:
there are cases in Japan where someone had it, we given the all clear and retested positive 3 weeks later, also lots of cases in China ( 13% if I recall ) re tested positive.

the assumption was at the time that this could be a reinfection however the newest thought on it is that people had been getting false negatives on the tests ( apparently throat swabs are not the most reliable type of test as can be taking incorrectly ). so it looks like in some cases the virus can linger on for a 4/5/6 weeks.
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Great! Thanks for that. I suppose we just need to keep learning from other countries that are more down the line with this
 
Lancet Fluke said:
It's a funny old world. Took my son with an underlying condition out of school in Wales early last week and got pure shit from some people, one or two people even told my wife we were being irresponsible. 8 days later the school is shutting.
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Twats. Who do they think they are telling you what you can and can’t do with your own kids. Hope you told them to go fuck themselves
 
Vic said:
Are they testing more?

All the dead people have been tested.

Not all the people with the virus have been tested.

If most people who catch it are asymptomatic, the more of them you test the lower the proportion who die from it.

And the more people who have had it and are both immune and cannot spread it, the sooner we can get back to normal - but you have to test before you know that. Mass testing of a sample area would tell us a lot. I heard one example a couple of days ago (a small town in Germany?). You could do it in Derbyshire villages, like Eyam.
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I said about the unknown numbers of untested people Vic, but I do not believe we have 15x as many people infected in the UK compared to Germany, do you? 2x, 3x, 0.5x, 0.3x Yes I could believe any of those stats. But 15x?

And we have to get out of our heads this idea that we will see any time soon a significant proportion - and god help us a majority - infected. That would be an unmitigated disaster with 100k dead in the UK at least. Must Not Happen.
 
wattle said:
I wasn’t aware you can still be a carrier once you’ve had it and are not clear. Are you sure? That’s very worrying if so
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Japan has reported its first case of a person becoming reinfected with the coronavirus after appearing to have fully recovered.

Officials in Osaka confirmed that a woman who works as a tour bus guide had tested positive for COVID-19 for the second time, further heightening concerns about the spread of the infection in the country

While there have been a number of cases of reinfection in China, notably in Wuhan province where the coronavirus outbreak originated late last year, second positive tests have not been reported elsewhere in the world

The woman in Osaka, western Japan, who is in her 40s, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains

Philip Tierno Jr, professor of microbiology and pathology at New York University, said: "Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms.

"And then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...erson-being-reinfected-with-covid-19-11944295
 
Chippy_boy said:
I said about the unknown numbers of untested people Vic, but I do not believe we have 15x as many people infected in the UK compared to Germany, do you? 2x, 3x, 0.5x, 0.3x Yes I could believe any of those stats. But 15x?

And we have to get out of our heads this idea that we will see any time soon a significant proportion - and god help us a majority - infected. That would be an unmitigated disaster with 100k dead in the UK at least. Must Not Happen.
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I agree on that - getting to herd immunity is at least 2 years to prevent overload on the system, and probably much longer in reality.

The country manage to immunise everyone against some things, and I don't see a reason they wouldn't aim to vaccinate a huge percentage once one is confirmed. It makes no sense not to.
 
Ban-jani said:
I genuinely think if they tested the whole population it’d come back with similar numbers to China have officially published.

Ie 80k+

Then again I reckon theirs is well behind too.
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Sobering (and encouraging however) to think that if we do have 80,000 cases, it is still means circa 99.9% of the UK population are still not infected.

Whilst the infections are still down in the 0.1% of the population range, we still have a chance to lock this down and start to reduce the numbers, not watch them exponentially increase.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Sobering (and encouraging however) to think that if we do have 80,000 cases, it is still means circa 99.9% of the UK population are still not infected.

Whilst the infections are still down in the 0.1% of the population range, we still have a chance to lock this down and start to reduce the numbers, not watch them exponentially increase.
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That’s just a number I’ve plucked out of thin air just based on our testing and how many are seemingly showing symptoms.

I genuinely think it’s a very large number.
 
Ban-jani said:
I genuinely think if they tested the whole population it’d come back with similar numbers to China have officially published.

Ie 80k+

Then again I reckon theirs is well behind too.
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Depending if you trust the WHO. they said they assumed the cases in china were the tip of the iceberg so went actively looking for the body of the iceberg and didn't find it, based on the the fact they didn't find the body of the iceberg is why they swapped to the CFR as the mortality rate a couple of weeks back.

Makes it even stranger that we are not testing more and are just assuming 10/20x infections.
 
karen7 said:
Japan has reported its first case of a person becoming reinfected with the coronavirus after appearing to have fully recovered.

Officials in Osaka confirmed that a woman who works as a tour bus guide had tested positive for COVID-19 for the second time, further heightening concerns about the spread of the infection in the country

While there have been a number of cases of reinfection in China, notably in Wuhan province where the coronavirus outbreak originated late last year, second positive tests have not been reported elsewhere in the world

The woman in Osaka, western Japan, who is in her 40s, tested positive on Wednesday after developing a sore throat and chest pains

Philip Tierno Jr, professor of microbiology and pathology at New York University, said: "Once you have the infection, it could remain dormant and with minimal symptoms.

"And then you can get an exacerbation if it finds its way into the lungs."

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...erson-being-reinfected-with-covid-19-11944295
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Thanks Kaz. That's very worrying. Means this is gunna go on for years rather than months, or until there's a vaccine. Hope you're feeling much better x
 
karen7 said:
We have always known it lives on some surfaces for a couple of days,hence the no touching each other and constant hand washing
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People are panicking understandably, and when people panic rationale suffers first. On a side note happy you are feeling better, that bloody chocolate wont eat itself.
 
The authorities will have a very good idea about the prevalence of the virus from sample testing. That however does not allow them to do follow up trace work. That does not seem to be going on at all.

Sadly the academic involved in the Imperial College suppression v mitigation policy may now have it

 
wattle said:
Shit I thought it was only on surfaces for a short time. Never thought of cloths. Bugger
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https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200317-covid-19-how-long-does-the-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus survives for longer on cardboard – up to 24 hours – and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless-steel surfaces
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I read yesterday ( but cant find the link ) that it can survive for 8h on copper which is supposed to be very inhospitable to viruses and other microbes.

Edit: Its 4h for copper
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...urfaces-days-study-shows-200318083137542.html
 
Marvin said:
The authorities will have a very good idea about the prevalence of the virus from sample testing. That however does not allow them to do follow up trace work. That does not seem to be going on at all.

Sadly the academic involved in the Imperial College suppression v mitigation policy may now have it

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Did no one tell him to wash his hands ?
 
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