The following is what I have been trying to say for the last week or two, but explained in a much better than I’ve been putting it, I rather suspect.
“The figures for coronavirus are eye-watering. But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.
Of course, this will never truly be known until the pandemic is over, which is why modelling is very difficult and needs caveats.
But given that the old and frail are the most vulnerable, would these people be dying anyway?
Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales: factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure tops 600,000.
The coronavirus deaths will not be on top of this. Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths. In short, they would have died anyway.
It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap.
In contrast, the figure he gave for flu deaths to MPs - 8,000 - is different. It is actually the number of deaths over and above what you would expect to happen in any given year.
Many more die with flu, but the figure gives you an indication of how many more die because of flu, whereas the 20,000, 250,000 and 500,000 figures for coronavirus are simply the number of deaths linked to coronavirus.
The testing which has been done in many countries means we know when a patient dies with the virus inside their body. What it does not tell us is to what extent coronavirus contributed to the death.
There are, of course, other factors at play here. Left unchecked, the deaths would come very quickly.
The 500,000 deaths could all occur in the UK by August, the modellers said.
This in itself would overwhelm the health service - if they were right - putting even more lives at risk, because care would not be available for others.
But there is certainly evidence to suggest the modellers have underestimated the ability of the NHS to increase intensive care capacity.
What else has not been done is a proper assessment of the economic and social costs of the measures taken, which themselves will put lives and health at risk.
As we get deeper into this crisis, we will need much greater intelligence on just how many lives are truly being saved, and compare that to the wider cost to society, so the government and the public can weigh up the best course of action”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654