COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Eds]

If 40m catch it over the next 12 months, that’s 4 to 6m people being hospitalised.

Even at the low end, that 333,000 every month.

How does the NHS cope with that?

I am not an expert so can't answer that question, sorry although there does appear to be plenty of other expert virologists on this site.

 

[domalino]

If 40m catch it over the next 12 months, that’s 4 to 6m people being hospitalised.

Even at the low end, that 333,000 every month.

How does the NHS cope with that?

It depends on who is getting it and who makes up that 40m.

There's 15m children in the country who mostly show almost no symptoms. If those 15m get it you will get minimal hospitalisations.

There's 12.15m people over 60 in the country, if they get it, we will be fucked.

Keep the schools open while locking away the old, and you should have the virus spread through the child population and people with school age children - 30-50 year olds.

And that should get you up to your 40m with much fewer hospitalisations than if it's just spreading through the population at random like in Italy.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

When my 3 were little (not that long ago) we used washable nappies. If you get stuck, cut up some old towels and line them with dried out babywipes. You can learn how to fold nappies from Youtube. Not ideal for you but better than nothing....which really would get messy !

Cheers for the tips! Found some on amazon but delivery is not expected until 25th March - 9 days away. It could work out perfectly, but a slight delay and we’re up shit creek (literally!)

 

[Indaparkside]

Fair play mate

This outbreak has shown there’s a lot of people in society fuck you I’m in the boat, it’s time we started thinking of the most vulnerable and showing we’re there for them

 

[Tricky_Trev]

It depends on who is getting it and who makes up that 40m.

There's 15m children in the country who mostly show almost no symptoms. If those 15m get it you will get minimal hospitalisations.

There's 12.15m people over 60 in the country, if they get it, we will be fucked.

Keep the schools open while locking away the old, and you should have the virus spread through the child population and people with school age children - 30-50 year olds.

And that should get you up to your 40m with much fewer hospitalisations than if it's just spreading through the population at random like in Italy.

There needs to be some really strict, enforceable restrictions on the elderly. I’m sure I won’t just be speaking for my elderly loved ones but they are as stubborn as anything. Trying to keep them inside even for one day is a challenge. They just want to carry on as normal. The stricter the better for me personally.

 

[aguero93:20]

It depends on who is getting it and who makes up that 40m.

There's 15m children in the country who mostly show almost no symptoms. If those 15m get it you will get minimal hospitalisations.

There's 12.15m people over 60 in the country, if they get it, we will be fucked.

Keep the schools open while locking away the old, and you should have the virus spread through the child population and people with school age children - 30-50 year olds.

And that should get you up to your 40m with much fewer hospitalisations than if it's just spreading through the population at random like in Italy.

How do you guarantee that the low and high risk don't come into contact? My youngest has acute bronchitis, so do we close his school? The stepmother is >50, has lung cancer and is going through chemo, she works for the postal service, How do we guarantee she doesn't come into contact with it?

 

[bluejon]

so if you had a terrible illness and they said you need urgent treatment , do you want a consultation with the professor who happens to be the leading expert to treat you , or Julie, who is a maths student? Up to you

If Julie is a stats expert who is being trained by people who know what they are talking about, and the question that julie is commenting on is a stats question, then I suggest you give the girl a listen, she might know what she's talking about. Instantly disregarding the collective opinion of 200 scientists because a couple of them are PhD students is just fucking stupid. The government's response to this has been pathetic, they are just calling this out.

 

[domalino]

How do you guarantee that the low and high risk don't come into contact? My youngest has acute bronchitis, so do we close his school? The stepmother is >50, has lung cancer and is going through chemo, she works for the postal service, How do we guarantee she doesn't come into contact with it?

Common sense would say the kid and the stepmother join the lock in with the elderly.

In fact when I say lock in the elderly, it should really be the "at risk", no matter how old.

 

[Blue Hefner]

 

[domalino]

If Julie is a stats expert who is being trained by people who know what they are talking about, and the question that julie is commenting on is a stats question, then I suggest you give the girl a listen, she might know what she's talking about. Instantly disregarding the collective opinion of 200 scientists because a couple of them are PhD students is just fucking stupid. The government's response to this has been pathetic, they are just calling this out.

83 of them are students for the record. Which makes me think they just forwarded it around a University mailing list.

The problem is that very few of them are actually epidemiologists or virologists.

25 year old PhD maths students questioning the work of the scientists who have specialised in this and worked on it for decades for the government when they have no experience in the field at all is not a great look.


I would hold 1000x more weight in the comments from similarly qualified people from WHO etc. who have not criticised it but asked for more details and urged more testing to keep the numbers as accurate as possible.