COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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SWP's back said:
Surely I’m not the only thinking “If that’s true and we normally get 20,000 Flu deaths each year, then why are we and every other country plunging economies into recession with lock downs and why are we building pop up morgues to take 20 odd thousand bodies?”
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Because most people understood weeks ago the differences in contagion and mortality between seasonal flu and Covid-19.

"Some perspective" can kill.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
my parents go. Apparently it’s full of old bids shopping for themselves and their kids!!!!
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Went this morning, was fine actually, plenty of food/products, no queues and no one buying unreasonably from what I saw.

Think my area has been lucky with it, never seen crazy queues or people buying excessively - just a lack of chicken, beans and loo roll.
 
The problem you have is several Universities have been studying and publishing theories on this and a lot have different findings.

At present there are too many experts on the outside theorising and then being published in papers and people taking it as fact.

UCL said about 35000 deahs on wednesday

Imperial college say it could be as little as 5700

FT published a study from university oxford saying half of the population may have had it and two days later that was questioned by othr scientist and experts.

Two many people second guessing.
 
SWP's back said:
Several as I know a few people there. The below is from an ex-girlfriend from long long ago who posted this on Thursday from Shanghai where she works as a teacher with her husband:

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If you don’t know anyone over there, where are you expecting to hear it Dennis?

There are plenty of media sources reporting similar. Do you doubt they are that fastidious about their lock down? Do you think my friend is lying?
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Wow! I had a feeling some of the joyous videos coming out of China were propaganda. And the numbers.
 
blue b4 the moon said:
That 'only' figure looks very low to a know-nowt like me, hopefully they hit the mark with it.

While these sort of articles are perhaps good for morale I'd be a little worried that the public will start to ease off on safety.
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In the last 10 days, the number of deaths has multiplied 10 fold.

The 5700 figure sounds wildly optimistic to me.
 
Marvin said:
They are not my figures. I sourced it from PHE. If you think I've taken it out of context then check the source.
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Do you not agree that your figures suggest half the population gets flu each year AND that Oxford University suggest 52x fewer people die on average than the figures you’ve posted?
 
On my daily walk I 1st passed Lidl at 7-30am not a car park space available and people driving round and round. Then went past Aldi and there was a que that went round the car park. Neither opens til 9am.
 
SWP's back said:
Do you not agree that your figures suggest half the population gets flu each year AND that Oxford University suggest 52x fewer people die on average than the figures you’ve posted?
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I agree that there is a big difference between the figures I found and those that Chippy found. I went to PHE annual flu report. Here's the link https://assets.publishing.service.g...tory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

See also https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year for a summary of sources. Can't explain as yet the discrepancy.
 
goalmole said:
In the last 10 days, the number of deaths has multiplied 10 fold.

The 5700 figure sounds wildly optimistic to me.
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They're effectively predicting best case scenario for UK and worst case for Spain and Italy.

I just hope people that see this don't think 'fuck it, I'm going to my mates house' or start the game of playing down covid-19 with ridiculous flu comparisons like Marvin has already done.
 
SWP's back said:
Surely I’m not the only thinking “If that’s true and we normally get 20,000 Flu deaths each year, then why are we and every other country plunging economies into recession with lock downs and why are we building pop up morgues to take 20 odd thousand bodies?”
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I assume because if countries didn't go into lockdown the 250,000 deaths would happen as health services are overwhelmed. Who knows whether it will be 5,000 or 10,000, but if we do keep it to that sort of figure it will be because we took the measures.
 
Marvin said:
I think we'll see europe control it. What is most worrying are the situations in poorer countries. How is a country like India going to stop it?

We really need the science to catch up and come up with some quick testing regimes that can be instigated en masse. It does sound like they are getting closer and closer but the British medical advisers say very little about them. Could that be because we haven't bought them and thus don't want to mention them? Strange given that British companies have helped develop them. Perhaps they are not as effective as claimed.
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Read yesterday that Spain had its progress stalled by buying 30k defective testing kits from China that were just 30 percent effective. Seemingly not official ones but bought as a " any port in a storm " reaction.
 
Marvin said:
US deaths currently stand at 1,704. Why should their epidemic be any different to China, Italy, UK, Spain etc in general form?

The frightening aspects are the affects in poorer countries for whom social isolation (our main weapon) may not be as effective. I am only speculating but I feel it will be much harder to protect people by this method in poorer countries.

So far countries have to bring themselves almost to a total halt to stop the infection, otherwise the costs would be catastrophic but so far I think the evidence to date shows that deaths will be low in the advanced countries in comparison to the usual 'flu epidemics.
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I can think of two reasons:

1. China got the S strain of the virus and it mutated into the L strain after they went into lockdown.

2. China were lying, are lying and will continue to lie.
 
BlueMedic said:
Went this morning, was fine actually, plenty of food/products, no queues and no one buying unreasonably from what I saw.

Think my area has been lucky with it, never seen crazy queues or people buying excessively - just a lack of chicken, beans and loo roll.
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They have all those mate in Aldi if you have one close by my missus went Thursday.
 
blueparrot said:
I assume because if countries didn't go into lockdown the 250,000 deaths would happen as health services are overwhelmed. Who knows whether it will be 5,000 or 10,000, but if we do keep it to that sort of figure it will be because we took the measures.
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Just a reminder that the Imperial College projections of hundreds of thousands of deaths were assuming the NHS had infinite capacity! However they predicted 8x overload which would make it much worse.

And none of the above was based on "doing nothing". That was based on the "herd immunity* strategy which was progressively introducing measures to flatten the curve. Doing nothing would be worse still.

It would not be ridiculous to imagine death rates well above 1% if 7 out of 8 needing intensive care could not get it. So uncontrolled, we could have been looking at half a million dead, easily.

No to mention the additional cancer deaths, heart attack and stroke deaths from people we are unable to treat because of no capacity being available.
 
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