COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[SilverFox2]

I looked this up a couple of weeks ago when posters were adamant that Covid19 was like the flu.
On average over the last ten years there have been about 8,000 deaths per annum from flu in the UK

Will that trend continue ie will those deaths be supplementary to the CV ones?
Alternatively maybe the most vulnerable have finite number each year so non fatal attacks will increase?

 

[Ban-jani]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

 

[worsleyweb]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

And great news if true.

 

[ballbag]

Has anyone got a copy of the letter sent to the 1.5m most vulnerable?
My 80 year old mother in law is one of them but it’s not easy getting information from her regarding the letter over the phone. Obviously the main thing is to stay indoors for 12 weeks but I would like to read the letter in full.

My mum has got one, mate. I'm living at her house at the moment too. Took me a while to find out what that means for us who live with her and look after her.
If you are still looking for info, give us a shout, bud.

 

[Phil1]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

Is that total deaths expected for UK? Sorry mate but that's a pipedream if it is. We are over that number in Spain already and only going to go up for the short term at least.
Whilst I hope that they are right I can't figure out how they have come to that conclusion.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

I really think that's an overly optimistic figure. Italy had 1000 in a 24 hour period. Ours have been going up each day, I am anticipating that the toll today is over 200. Unless they think this is all over in 3 weeks, then that modelling seems ridiculous.

 

[Ban-jani]

Is that total deaths expected for UK? Sorry mate but that's a pipedream if it is. We are over that number in Spain already and only going to go up for the short term at least.
Whilst I hope that they are right I can't figure out how they have come to that conclusion.

Don’t shoot the messenger, just what they are reporting.

From the Science Editor in the Times-

Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe.

The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated.

They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working. “Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”

 

[Ban-jani]

I really think that's an overly optimistic figure. Italy had 1000 in a 24 hour period. Ours have been going up each day, I am anticipating that the toll today is over 200. Unless they think this is all over in 3 weeks, then that modelling seems ridiculous.

I’m not saying I agree, just wanted to share what they’re saying.

The government’s strategy is working though, I think the key thing is the public have to follow and probably will have to for two months.

 

[Chippy_boy]

And great news if true.

IIRC their projection assumes we can ramp up ICU capacity fast enough to accommodate the peak numbers. And I believe this assumption is based on government suggestions of how many ventilators will be available by when. So this is extremely critical because without saving a large proportion of people who need ICU, then the numbers go tits up. We are saying we need 30,000 ventilators and since no ventilator = pretty much certain death if you needed one, then 25,000 ventilators means another 5,000 dead. etc.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

I’m not saying I agree, just wanted to share what they’re saying.

The government’s strategy is working though, I think the key thing is the public have to follow and probably will have to for two months.

Yeah, I do think the strategy is working now - but this next 2 weeks will be interesting. Hopefully we can get over the big hump by June.