COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[SilverFox2]

I looked this up a couple of weeks ago when posters were adamant that Covid19 was like the flu.
On average over the last ten years there have been about 8,000 deaths per annum from flu in the UK

Will that trend continue ie will those deaths be supplementary to the CV ones?
Alternatively maybe the most vulnerable have finite number each year so non fatal attacks will increase?

 

[Ban-jani]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

 

[worsleyweb]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

And great news if true.

 

[ballbag]

Has anyone got a copy of the letter sent to the 1.5m most vulnerable?
My 80 year old mother in law is one of them but it’s not easy getting information from her regarding the letter over the phone. Obviously the main thing is to stay indoors for 12 weeks but I would like to read the letter in full.

My mum has got one, mate. I'm living at her house at the moment too. Took me a while to find out what that means for us who live with her and look after her.
If you are still looking for info, give us a shout, bud.

 

[Phil1]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

Is that total deaths expected for UK? Sorry mate but that's a pipedream if it is. We are over that number in Spain already and only going to go up for the short term at least.
Whilst I hope that they are right I can't figure out how they have come to that conclusion.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

I really think that's an overly optimistic figure. Italy had 1000 in a 24 hour period. Ours have been going up each day, I am anticipating that the toll today is over 200. Unless they think this is all over in 3 weeks, then that modelling seems ridiculous.

 

[Ban-jani]

Is that total deaths expected for UK? Sorry mate but that's a pipedream if it is. We are over that number in Spain already and only going to go up for the short term at least.
Whilst I hope that they are right I can't figure out how they have come to that conclusion.

Don’t shoot the messenger, just what they are reporting.

From the Science Editor in the Times-

Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe.

The country will avoid the 260,000 fatalities once feared if it keeps on the same path seen in China, statisticians at Imperial College London have calculated.

They emphasised that this did not imply that the fears of mass deaths were alarmist, but that the government strategy was working. “Our work shows that social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an effective parachute across multiple countries,” Tom Pike, of Imperial College, said. “That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”

 

[Ban-jani]

I really think that's an overly optimistic figure. Italy had 1000 in a 24 hour period. Ours have been going up each day, I am anticipating that the toll today is over 200. Unless they think this is all over in 3 weeks, then that modelling seems ridiculous.

I’m not saying I agree, just wanted to share what they’re saying.

The government’s strategy is working though, I think the key thing is the public have to follow and probably will have to for two months.

 

[Chippy_boy]

And great news if true.

IIRC their projection assumes we can ramp up ICU capacity fast enough to accommodate the peak numbers. And I believe this assumption is based on government suggestions of how many ventilators will be available by when. So this is extremely critical because without saving a large proportion of people who need ICU, then the numbers go tits up. We are saying we need 30,000 ventilators and since no ventilator = pretty much certain death if you needed one, then 25,000 ventilators means another 5,000 dead. etc.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

I’m not saying I agree, just wanted to share what they’re saying.

The government’s strategy is working though, I think the key thing is the public have to follow and probably will have to for two months.

Yeah, I do think the strategy is working now - but this next 2 weeks will be interesting. Hopefully we can get over the big hump by June.

 

[Blue Hefner]

Can you expand on

A, what you like listening to.

B, which points he ignores/misses.

Which is more important A or B

A - I don’t know why I like listening to him, I disagree with a lot of what he says. Maybe it’s his sense of self-importance

B - one of the most obvious points he misses is about hospital capacity.

 

[Phil1]

Don’t shoot the messenger, just what they are reporting.

From the Science Editor in the Times-

Not at all mate, not having a go and obviously hope that the end figures are nowhere near some earlier predictions pointed to. We need all the good news we can get right now. I'm just basing my doubts on what happened here and how the death toll is still growing on a day to day basis.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Pop of NZ 4.8m
Pop of UK 67m
Note the difference

What has the size of population got to do with it? They were quicker to lock down, quicker to get supplies in and have been testing 2000 people a day and going for double that this weekend whereas we have only just starting to test 1700 people this weekend.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Another thing worth mentioning:

I have just put the post and the newspaper in the oven for 30 minutes. Apparently Coronaviruses are rendered non-infectious by 30 minutes at 75C, so I am giving it 30 minutes at 90C to be safe.

Provided you don't have a gas oven and you keep your post/newspaper well away from any heating element, this might seem like an easy and worthwhile precaution. 75C isn't going to set fire to anything.

The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively.

https://europepmc.org/article/med/14631830

 

[johnmc]

Another thing worth mentioning:

I have just put the post and the newspaper in the oven for 30 minutes. Apparently Coronaviruses are rendered non-infectious by 30 minutes at 75C, so I am giving it 30 minutes at 90C to be safe.

Provided you don't have a gas oven and you keep your post/newspaper well away from any heating element, this might seem like an easy and worthwhile precaution.

The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively.

https://europepmc.org/article/med/14631830

Really? By that same notion should we be doing that with all the shopping we are bringing into the house?

 

[Ban-jani]

Not at all mate, not having a go and obviously hope that the end figures are nowhere near some earlier predictions pointed to. We need all the good news we can get right now. I'm just basing my doubts on what happened here and how the death toll is still growing on a day to day basis.

I doubt it too, to be honest.

 

[MCFC1993]

Awful situation in Spain.

Belgium and the Netherlands were said to be struggling yesterday and it looks like they are.

 

[gingerprince]

Imperial College is now saying deaths estimated to be 5,700.

That’s a significant reduction from the 200,000 figure.

I believe the 200k/250k was the figure they said was possible if the government had continued with their initial strategy. By getting the government to change its initial strategy to the model we are now following they said the figures could be limited to 20k deaths max instead. This 5.7k figure you refer to, [which i havnt seen], seems within this, albeit @ lower end of the 20k max they forecast.

Whether any numbers can be believed with this fast moving situation is difficult to comprehend

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I looked this up a couple of weeks ago when posters were adamant that Covid19 was like the flu.
On average over the last ten years there have been about 8,000 deaths per annum from flu in the UK

Since 2014/15 the average was estimated at 17000 deaths from flu. The range was between 1692 in 2018/19 and 28330 in 2014/15. In fact, if you take out the very small 2018/19 number the average for the remaining four years is 21000. Over the winter period of December to March, when the peak influenza season is reached, that’s 4 months of about 175 people, per day succumbing to flu and the NHS being under huge ‘winter’ pressures.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Another thing worth mentioning:

I have just put the post and the newspaper in the oven for 30 minutes. Apparently Coronaviruses are rendered non-infectious by 30 minutes at 75C, so I am giving it 30 minutes at 90C to be safe.

Provided you don't have a gas oven and you keep your post/newspaper well away from any heating element, this might seem like an easy and worthwhile precaution. 75C isn't going to set fire to anything.

The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively.

https://europepmc.org/article/med/14631830

You could just open your post and then wash your hands, of course.