COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[domalino]

No I didn't. Let me remind you of the post I made, which you decided to try to criticise:

"I hear what you are saying but there is a fundamental flaw in the various assumptions above "most people will get this at some point".

That absolutely must not be allowed to happen and it can be prevented. It must be prevented. If it is only as deadly as flu and say 40m or 50m people get it then that means 50,000 people dead. Which would mean multiples of that needing ICU treatment and we have nowhere near the capacity to cater for those numbers in any sorts of near timescale, so even more dead.

The objective is to prevent as many people as possible from getting this, not forever, but until a vaccine arrives. And then vaccinate everyone."

And your reply:

"There is absolutely zero chance of this happening. Your plan to lockdown even more severely than we already are for 18 months is a complete fantasy."

You're replying to a post I did not make. Seems to me you just like arguing.

My reply was to the post you made. Specifically the part where you think the objective is to stop as many people as possible from getting it until a vaccine arrives.

That's not the objective. It can't be.

The strategy you agree with, lockdown-relax-lockdown, is not designed to stop as many people as possible from getting it. How can you not understand that?

That strategy is designed to simply spread out the timeline of when people get it. If the strategy was to stop people getting it then we would be in lockdown for 18 months.

The lockdown-relax-lockdown strategy allows the virus to spread under the conditions where the NHS is not overrun and while shielding the particularly vulnerable.

That should be clear to anyone who has read the strategy and seen the 60/100/200/1000 ICU cases per week triggers for bringing lockdown back - it's all about a slow and steady spread with the lockdowns acting as breakers when we got overwhelmed.

That's why the models which include the lockdowns still predict 20-40 million people getting it.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

How much different would this all look like if it were akin to a solitary nuclear weapon being exploded somewhere, outside of the immediate loss of life?

Would similar measures have been enacted?

Just got me thinking.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Girlfriend has 2 cats and I’m shitting it now when they come near!!

You know what needs to be done.

 

[xgorton]

How much different would this all look like if it were akin to a solitary nuclear weapon being exploded somewhere, outside of the immediate loss of life?

Would similar measures have been enacted?

Just got me thinking.

Is Kaka a done deal yet ?

 

[AlgarveBlu]

On the issue of the spectrum of different types of lockdowns I see that Japan seem to have had a lockdown very light policy but are imminently about to declare a state of emergency to allow more draconian measures.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e...tate-of-emergency-as-early-as-tuesday-yomiuri

Previous policy has been :-

Governors in Tokyo and elsewhere have asked citizens to stay home on weekends, avoid crowds and evening outings, and work from home. That has had some effect, but not as much as many experts said was needed.

New powers will give :-

An emergency, which Mr Abe said would last about a month, will give governors authority to call on people to stay at home and businesses to close, but not to order the kind of lockdowns seen in other countries

Seems we are still in the trial and error phase of ascertaining which type of lockdown facilitates adequate frontline capacity versus keeping a nations economic activity ticking over.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Best estimates for a vaccine coming into mass production is 12-18 months - and 12 months is optimistic - so the method suggested in that paper would still happen well into 2021.

Horizon tomorrow night on BBC2 9PM will show how a lab in London/Oxford has somehow managed to develop something in three weeks which would normally take a year to reach that stage.

The virus was eradicated overnight in mice and the next testing is on Monkeys during the next two weeks.

I would never sell our clever fuckers out there short.

 

[andyhinch]

You know what needs to be done.

A cat gif ?

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

Is Kaka a done deal yet ?

You'd have to ask Ajay, I hope he is well.

 

[worsleyweb]

Horizon tomorrow night on BBC2 9PM will show how a year's work at a lab in London/Oxford has somehow managed to develop something in three weeks which would normally take a year to reach that stage.

The virus was eradicated overnight in mice and the next testing is on Monkeys during the next two weeks.

I would never sell our clever fuckers out there short.

Fair play that is incredible - lets hope it works on the Monkeys.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

On the issue of the spectrum of different types of lockdowns I see that Japan seem to have had a lockdown very light policy but are imminently about to declare a state of emergency to allow more draconian measures.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/e...tate-of-emergency-as-early-as-tuesday-yomiuri

Previous policy has been :-

Governors in Tokyo and elsewhere have asked citizens to stay home on weekends, avoid crowds and evening outings, and work from home. That has had some effect, but not as much as many experts said was needed.

New powers will give :-

An emergency, which Mr Abe said would last about a month, will give governors authority to call on people to stay at home and businesses to close, but not to order the kind of lockdowns seen in other countries

Seems we are still in the trial and error phase of ascertaining which type of lockdown facilitates adequate frontline capacity versus keeping a nations economic activity ticking over.

Japan have been playing politics because of the investment and pressure to host the olympics.

now that is not happening they are able to follow what other countries have done (to a degree)

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Fair play that is incredible - lets hope it works on the Monkeys.

if it does work , there is a tiger In New York who is up for a trail as well.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Best estimates for a vaccine coming into mass production is 12-18 months - and 12 months is optimistic - so the method suggested in that paper would still happen well into 2021.

Well I live in the camp of belief that we will have a working vaccine, or at least a medicine to lessen the effects, available within 6 months.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Horizon tomorrow night on BBC2 9PM will show how a year's work at a lab in London/Oxford has somehow managed to develop something in three weeks which would normally take a year to reach that stage.

The virus was eradicated overnight in mice and the next testing is on Monkeys during the next two weeks.

I would never sell our clever fuckers out there short.

None of which contradicts the 12-18 month scenario.
It takes a year to test fully from animals to humans.

 

[domalino]

Horizon tomorrow night on BBC2 9PM will show how a year's work at a lab in London/Oxford has somehow managed to develop something in three weeks which would normally take a year to reach that stage.

The virus was eradicated overnight in mice and the next testing is on Monkeys during the next two weeks.

I would never sell our clever fuckers out there short.

Also Bill Gates is going to manufacture all the most promising vaccine candidates before they are approved which should save months. Normally a vaccine is given the OK and then it takes 3-6 months to ramp up production to be able to send it out.

Gates is going to manufacture them all now, then destroy the ones which fail the approval procedure.

That should shave some months off the 12-18 prediciton.

 

[fulabeer]

Horizon tomorrow night on BBC2 9PM will show how a lab in London/Oxford has somehow managed to develop something in three weeks which would normally take a year to reach that stage.

The virus was eradicated overnight in mice and the next testing is on Monkeys during the next two weeks.

I would never sell our clever fuckers out there short.

It's never making the vaccine that causes the delay. It's the testing to make sure it is safe that takes the time.

 

[Rammy Blue]

A cat gif ?

I was thinking something much more permanent.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

THe death rate is everyone who has died, not just everyone at hospitals, but the people who die out of hospitals are being collected and added every tuesday. So today is the least accurate the numbers will get, tomorrow it will be completely accurate.

Although it will only be accurate in the sense of saying how many people died with COVID-19 and not necessarily of it.

 

[paulchapo]

How much different would this all look like if it were akin to a solitary nuclear weapon being exploded somewhere, outside of the immediate loss of life?

Would similar measures have been enacted?

Just got me thinking.

Yes I remember this being a big discussion a few years ago about a terrorist detonating a dirty bomb.

What this pandemic has shown is you dont really need armies, weapons etcetera. Selective countries and the whole world could be destroyed by a biological weapon, or a few people infected with a virus sent out to travel and spread it.

 

[twosips]

Also Bill Gates is going to manufacture all the most promising vaccine candidates before they are approved which should save months. Normally a vaccine is given the OK and then it takes 3-6 months to ramp up production to be able to send it out.

Gates is going to manufacture them all now, then destroy the ones which fail the approval procedure.

That should shave some months off the 12-18 prediciton.

Got a link for that? That's amazing news.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

None of which contradicts the 12-18 month scenario.
It takes a year to test fully from animals to humans.

I suspect previous regulations may be tweaked as and when, if required.